Australia General Discussion

[morgieb]

Why has Katter's Party evaporated since the last Queensland election?

Palmer had more money and probably more appeal to a wider range of Australians. Hence he sucked any oxygen Katter had and became the leading center-right populist (for lack of a better term) party.

[morgieb]

What an embarrassing statement from Cormann.

[morgieb]

Hero. RIP.

[morgieb]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/protester-wears-ku-klux-klan-outfit-to-oppose-burqas-at-parliament-house-20141027-11ca5b.html

A group of men attempted to enter Parliament wearing a Ku Klux Klan Hat, a Motorcycle Helmet and a Niqab in an attempt to protest the recent overruling of a ban on the burqa being worn in public galleries in Parliament and the "Political Ideology of Islam".

The growing intolerance for Islam in this country disturbs me greatly.

Indeed.

It should disturb anyone with half a heart.

[morgieb]

How long before Abbott gets knifed?

Although he's a liability, I tend to think that would do more harm than good at this stage.

[morgieb]

I really cannot see how the Liberals can keep Abbott until the next election, I mean he's a disaster and drags the government down so much. However, there only viable alternative is Bishop but she's so successful because she's been able to distance herself from the Libs. I feel like the Vic results have changed the game,  I mean it has really put all governments on notice. Campbell Newman must be incredibly nervous seeing those results and his numbers in polling despite the ridiculous amount of seats he holds.

I do kinda agree, but as you said, who can replace him? Bishop only looks good because she's in a position where you can't do that much damage, in other positions she's been the definition of mediocrity. Morrison would piss off too many swinging voters IMO. Hockey is toxic, Pyne is laughable. I don't see the party turning towards Turnbull either (though of course if they did, he'd beat Shorten fairly easily IMO).

[morgieb]

I actually think you'll very sharp snap-backs in SA and VIC. I also think the swing in QLD might be sharper than the national average.

I can't agree with South Australia and Victoria. They have Labor governments, whereas the others will likely have Coalition governments, so therefore less of a reason to give the government a kicking.

I'm liking Queensland for a huge snap-back, although given how right-wing the state is I'm not convinced.

[morgieb]

Damn, I was hoping it was headed to Andrew Barr. He'll end up as Chief Minister I suppose?

It's probably more significant for him to be Chief Minister rather than Senator, tbh.

[morgieb]

So it looks like Labor are favourites to gain Fisher.

OUCH.

[morgieb]

Xenephon's starting his own party apparently. Cause he saw how that went so well for Bob Katter...

I think Xenophon's niche won't be gagged by a Clive Palmer type though

Plus also, he's in the Upper House so the issues that harmed Katter won't really affect him as much.

[morgieb]

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/john-robertsons-leadership-of-nsw-opposition-shaky-mps-20141222-12ccv7.html

Wait, John Robertson exists?

[morgieb]

Labor up 60-40 in Victoria makes me happy. Only actually means 1-3 seats, but still.

If you're genuinely up 60-40 there'll be boilovers beyond La Trobe, Deaking and Corangamite. Think the Dunkley, Aston, Casey, McMillan, etc. types.

[morgieb]

Surprising that WA's vote is holding up well for the Liberals, particularly given the approval/PP ratings.

[morgieb]

Poll on the fairfax websited with over 25,000 votes has a 92% negative reaction to the announcement.

Admittedly, the readership skews left, but still... I think this might be the 'jumped the shark' moment.

The issue is the Prince Philip or the former defense guy?

Also, Happy Australia Day, mates!

Prince Philip.

[morgieb]

57/43 according to PVO.

RIP Abbott.

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/vanonselenp

Some stunning tweets here.

[morgieb]

I kind of disagree that it will be Bishop.

She's an unmarried, childless woman ... everything said about Gillard would come into play. That doesn't sit well with a lot of the voting base. She also knows that people started digging into Gillard's private life the moment she became PM... it would be the same for Bishop and let's say there's certainly some decent skeletons to find.

I think Bishop is actually content where she is, for the above reasons and others.

My money is on Turnbull PM, Bishop retains Deputy and FA and Morrison gets kicked up to Treasurer.

What sort of skeletons?

My mum mentioned something about screwing over people making abestos claims when she was a lawyer.

[morgieb]

I kind of disagree that it will be Bishop.

She's an unmarried, childless woman ... everything said about Gillard would come into play. That doesn't sit well with a lot of the voting base. She also knows that people started digging into Gillard's private life the moment she became PM... it would be the same for Bishop and let's say there's certainly some decent skeletons to find.

I think Bishop is actually content where she is, for the above reasons and others.

My money is on Turnbull PM, Bishop retains Deputy and FA and Morrison gets kicked up to Treasurer.

What sort of skeletons?

My mum mentioned something about screwing over people making abestos claims when she was a lawyer.

That's actually pretty well known. There are some that I personally think are off limits, but the media won't.

Hmm, so how did you get access to this non-publicly known info about Bishop?

With me at least, I know my mother had links to the ALP back in the day (worked for the SDA), which may have helped.

[morgieb]

RIP Tone

[morgieb]

Interesting - ReachTEL are saying 55/45 Shorten, but also 51/49 Bishop and 54/46 Turnbull.

[morgieb]

lolololoololollol.

Talk about going back to the future.

[morgieb]

Still he probably will survive this spill. But I'll be amazed if he's still in power by the next election, unless he calls a double dissolution or something.

[morgieb]

Will the party realise Abbott's a failure tomorrow, or will they keep their heads in the sand?

I think the latter is more likely. These sorts of things require two bites of the cherry generally.

[morgieb]

I'm leaning towards a 60-41 result in Abbott's favour, though in reality I have no idea.

[morgieb]

Regardless of him winning, there's 40% of the party room that thinks Abbott should resign. If Turnbull or Bishop steps up, he'll likely lose the vote.