The Debt Ceiling and the Conservative Bubble

[Link]

From your article...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do you think that is true.  Do you think these guys thought the President and his troops would just give up on a law that has already been passed and ruled Constitutional by the Supreme Court?  When in the history of our nation has any party done that?  What is the precedent for such a move?

[Link]

Again, why all this chat of default when a failure to raise the debt ceiling will cut spending by "only" 17%, with debt service being paid first, along with other mandatory expenditures, as required by law? Sure the failure to raise the debt ceiling will be economically disruptive, but there will be no debt default. Period.

Again indeed.  This has been said countless times by the Treasury, MSNBC, and forum members.  The United States is not some rinky dink household.  The treasury gets an absolutely mind boggling number of invoices to be paid DAILY.  The payments are sent out by a computer program.  There is no way to prioritize payments.  It's an all or none system.  Bond payments that get paid through Fed wire may be able to be separated out but you aren't going to be able to pick and choose all the benefit recipients, employees (foreign and domestic), suppliers, contracters, etc.

Torie please read this, memorize it, and book mark it.

[Link]

The idea that the government does not have the software to make sure it meets its Treasury debt service obligations strikes me as ludicrous. If that is the case, it's pathetic, and something needs to be done ASAP.

Torie my understanding is you are a lawyer and I have a lot of respect for you but those statements you just made there are worthy of an adolescent yellow avatar.  The situation is what it is.  You have to be an adult and accept that.  And if you guys want to constantly cut the budget who do you think is going to have time to ferret out waste, fraud, and abuse while simultaneously programing computers for something that should never happen?  And the computer program is just fine.  Just like my car is fine.  It's not GM's responsibility to make sure my car will be okay if I get drunk and drive it at 100 mph the wrong way down the freeway.  If Republicans behave the program works fine.  Why should federal employees who are having their budget cut be made to devote precious work hours to making the government infrastructure Republican hissy fit proof?

[Link]

Link you are getting unduly personal here. Anyway, Bedstuy just commented that there is a separate computer program for Treasuries, so Rachael Maddow was wrong at least as to that, putting aside what the US government can do to pick which bills it pays, and which not (aren't they paying right now the troops, while not other government workers (other than politicians) by the way as we speak?).

Sure Bedstuy, the 18.58% figure on a day by day basis will vary up and down, and is probably seasonal to boot. But the annual average is ballpark.

Torie I have replied to you multiple times over the course of days telling you the bond payments may be able to be separated out and I also told you the exact name of the mechanism which may be used.  And if you watched Maddow you would have that information as well.  Pretending people haven't posted stuff is not the proper way to discuss something.

Torie you keep ignoring facts that are presented to you.  There are a gargantuan number of other bills that need to be paid other than debt servicing.  And the Treasure has explicitly come out on multiple occasions and said there is not a chance anyone can prioritize those selectively.

I'm curious.  As a lawyer if someone paid there credit card bills on time but had numerous pending lawsuits from employees, suppliers, and contracts who they either hadn't paid or breached their contracts would you advise your client they are a good credit risk and to extend them a line of credit?  Where is this idea that as long as you pay one type of obligation you can skip out on another and maintain your credit rating?  Torie this notion is completely ludicrous.

[Link]

Well we have closure now that the Treasury debt will be paid (it will be), so I'm done. I make no other claims - never have. Thank you.

I personally have no "closure."  It's not an academic discussion for me.  I am not trying to prove you are wrong and I am right.  I am trying to stop this talk that paying interest and principle payments only is some kind of an achievement.  Not raising the debt ceiling is the United States saying we don't pay our obligations.  From the Treasury website...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/pages/proposals-to-prioritize-payments-on-us-debt-not-workable-would-not-prevent-default.aspx

[Link]

None of the posts in this thread have addressed the point in the actual article, which is a good one.

James Fallows posted some competing theories from readers. #1 is that the shutdown is all a prelude to an impeachment case once Obama has to take unilateral action (like evoking the 14th to raise the debt ceiling - which, given Chait's article, would be a lot likelier than the account shuffling discussed so far anyway). #2 is that Boehner has authority, but needs to save it in one blast to pass both the CR and the debt ceiling.

Now is about the time people finalize their thoughts about the internal dynamics at work (i.e. how the hell are the ~150 Republicans between the wings dealing with this), in order to figure out what would be a strong signal to lawmakers. I'm starting to think more that there is some endgame vision planned and propagated by the leadership, making a panic move like a mass sell off ineffective.

I addressed the article.  The article works from a premise that there was even some kind of reasonable plan to begin with.  It's part of human nature to assume there is some underlying order to the chaos.  In this case there doesn't appear to be.  Talk of Obamacare has faded and we even have a Congressman admitting he doesn't even know what he wants.



Step 1.  Shut down the Government
Step 2.  Figure out what you want

[Link]

I addressed the article.  The article works from a premise that there was even some kind of reasonable plan to begin with.  It's part of human nature to assume there is some underlying order to the chaos.  In this case there doesn't appear to be.  Talk of Obamacare has faded and we even have a Congressman admitting he doesn't even know what he wants.



Step 1.  Shut down the Government
Step 2.  Figure out what you want

Sorry, I did read your post - I just use quotes as a kickoff point for my own (and this is going to be a long-ass post, so hang tight)

Well I should have really left you out of it.  I was sort of just quoting to kick my response off as well.  I honestly don't know what is going on.  It doesn't make any sense to me.  Just picking a law at random and saying you won't fund the government unless it is repealed or defunded just doesn't make any sense.  And now with the people abandoning the whole defund Obamacare thing and saying they don't know what they want I don't know what to think.  Shutting down the government is a big deal.  Really should have every step planned before you do it.

Anyway your guess is as good as mine as to what people are thinking.