Australia General Discussion

[Talleyrand]

I'm less certain that there will be a challenge in the near future.  There is a growing minority in the backbenches that want Abbott gone now, but I just have a feeling that the Liberals have learned something from the last government.

As has been said before, the best option would be for Abbott to bow out and let new leadership come in without a challenge.  That obviously will not happen, so for the moment, the potential challengers want to avoid messy leadership challenges.

For sure the only thing stopping them right now is the disaster from the Rudd-Gillard change. That said the Coalition has got to consider that they're two incredibly different situations. Rudd, although going through a rough patch, was still personally popular and had an election-winning lead in the poll. His rolling was a massive shocker for the country. Meanwhile, Abbott is less popular than Gillard at this point in her term and doing worse than she ever did on the preferred prime minister total. Not to mention he's down in the polls 43-57, and that the Coalition has lost its majority in a state election as a direct result of his boneheaded "captain's picks".

You may yet be right that his situation may not be as perilous as we're hearing, but it's going to be really tough for him to keep the PM's office.

[Talleyrand]

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/adam-giles-replaced-as-northern-territory-chief-minister/6064564

Willem Westra van Holthe, the MP for Katherine, and Minister for Primary Industry and Fisheries and Minister for Mines and Energy, is now the Chief Minister. He was Deputy Chief Minister under Terry Mills, the Chief Minister who was rolled back in March 2013.

[Talleyrand]

Luke Simpkins, a WA backbencher has informed colleagues that he intends to formally motion for a leadership spill.

Don Randall, the MP for Canning, also in Western Australia, will second it.

Another telling line-

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-06/mp-seeks-leadership-spill/6075470

[Talleyrand]

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[Talleyrand]

That satisfaction rating matches Gillard's record low of 23-68 in September 2011. Yeah...

[Talleyrand]

I'd guess it'll be 72-29 in Abbott's favor. Unsettling, but he'll be alright.

[Talleyrand]

Defeated 61-39 apparently.

[Talleyrand]

The LNP is desperately trying to hold onto power in Queensland, arguing that because there may eventually be a byelection in Ferny Grove, they should keep power as a caretaker government until then.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-springborg-speculates-on-ending-speculation-20150209-139xu8.html

[Talleyrand]

The full Palaszczuk Ministry has been announced. With 8 out of 15 members being women, it might be the first majority women ministry in Australia. Returning MPs Grace Grace, Di Farmer, and Jim Pearce didn't receive ministries; it is possible one might become Speaker.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/palaszczuk-says-new-cabinet-is-the-best-possible-team-for-queensland-20150215-13ffno.html

[Talleyrand]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/liberals-may-back-kevin-rudd-for-un-secretary-general-role/story-fn59nqld-1227241427503

o_o

Apparently Rudd is considering running for UN Secretary General.

[Talleyrand]

The new Fairfax/Ipsos shows remarkable movement to the Coalition, with Labor ahead on 51-49, a swing of 3 points to the Coalition. On respondent allocated preferences, it's 52-48. Primary votes are 42-36-12.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/01/fairfax-ipsos-51-49-to-labor-2/

[Talleyrand]

That seems to make sense. I first started following Aussie politics during Rudd's first challenge to Gillard back in 2012 and remember being surprised that the polls showed the government down "only" 47-53 before they blew back out to double digits when he lost.


Anyway, a rare poll is out from the Northern Territory, where, to put it mildly, the incumbent Country Liberal government has been a disaster.



On respondent-allocated preferences, the Labor lead is 62-38, an 18% swing from 2012, when the CLP won 56-44.

[Talleyrand]

It occurred to me what the cause of this increase in government popularity is; The response to the Bali Nine issue and the two men up for execution in Indonesia.

I doubt that the shift in the polls is the result of any real shift in government popularity. Most likely it's probably just things shifting back to normal after the double Philip/QLD disaster has passed and with the spill growing more distant in voter's minds. I think the response to the issues in Indonesia is popular itself, but it hasn't really shifted opinion of the Prime Minister or his government much overall.

Of course, being Aussie yourself, you'd probably know more than I do.

[Talleyrand]

I don't know what's worse: Newspoll's wild swings, Essential's weird stability, or Morgan's bias.

[Talleyrand]

The fact that these people are only nine months into a six year term really makes me hope that some sort of senate reform is passed and there is a double dissolution soon after. Ridiculous.

[Talleyrand]

A great man. May he RIP.

[Talleyrand]

Beautiful as always, Homely!

Also, there are serious allegations of domestic abuse against Labor MP Billy Gordon in Queensland

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-would-be-ready-for-cook-byelection-springborg-20150328-1m9uif.html

If there is a by-election and the LNP wins the seat, there would be a 43-43 tie on the floor of parliament and the ALP would lose its majority propped up by Wellington. Cook is usually a Labor seat, but it's still winnable for the LNP in the right circumstances, so you can't take anything for granted.

I think cases like this one and Craig Thomson in federal parliament a few years ago only prove that the ALP. needs to more seriously vet its candidates...

[Talleyrand]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-29/queensland-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-sacks-billy-gordon-mp/6356718

Annastacia Palaszczuk has expelled Billy Gordon from the Labor Party and called on him to resign as MP for Cook.

[Talleyrand]

I hope he resigns as soon as possible, especially considering the extent of his criminal acts. I'd rather have the LNP win the byelection and possibly form government than have him holding the current government hostage.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3016517/Premier-orders-MP-quit-criminal-past-including-alleged-domestic-violence-plunging-government-crisis.html

He is "weighing" his options.

[Talleyrand]

Both QLD party leaders will be in the electorate this week so they're preparing for a byelection. In the meantime, the KAP MPs are in talks with Labor.

Another thing to notice- the next scheduled federal or state/territory election isn't for another 17 months.

Then there'll be a quick burst of elections like there was the last six months.

NT- August 27, 2016
ACT- October 15, 2016
Federal- On or before January 15, 2017
WA- March 11, 2017

[Talleyrand]

Looks like a change of government!

[Talleyrand]

If I was premier I would immediately call a fresh election and try to make it on moral grounds. I.e. 'I will not be allowed to kept hostage by a domestic abusing rogue for the sake of power' etc.

Probably won't work but better than being strewn along by a Geoff Shaw style bastard (or two, as the case may be)

Yes, while it would be very risky and almost certainly backfire, it's far better than the alternative situation.

[Talleyrand]

I think Morgieb is right here, but considering situations like Thomson in here, it's clear stronger vetting is needed regardless.

Gordon's selection can't really be blamed on that though, because Cook was widely expected to fall to the ALP, and he was a popular indigenous candidate who had done respectably as a federal candidate in 2013.

Pumicestone however...

[Talleyrand]

Since Wellington is speaker, he doesn't have a deliberative vote except in the case of a tie.

When Gordon was in the ALP, the ALP had 44 members on the floor (in case of a tie, they could get 35 with Wellington).

Now they have 43, and if Gordon doesn't vote and the KAP votes with the LNP, the opposition would be at 44, enough to bring down the government. That said, Springborg has stated he would provide a pair if Gordon tries to vote with them, so that complicates things even more.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll Quarterly is out.

Here are the results, with an EXTRAORDINARY result in WA (though I don't believe and neither should anyone else).

NSW- ALP ahead 54-46
SA- ALP ahead 53-47
WA- ALP ahead 54-46
VIC- ALP ahead 59-41
QLD- 50-50

In addition, Abbott has set a record for highest unpopularity ever recorded in a state, with his approval in South Australia tumbling to 19%, with 74% disapproving, beating out Julia Gillard's record low of 22% in Queensland back in 2012. No wonder the state ALP is currently leading in the polls.

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/04/05/1227292/418192-150406newspoll.pdf