UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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The areas where the Greens could theoretically take a significant slice out of the Labour vote are in seats where Labour will win by miles or where Labour has no chance of winning. Mostly they are feasting, instead, on the LibDem corpse.

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The areas where the Greens could theoretically take a significant slice out of the Labour vote are in seats where Labour will win by miles or where Labour has no chance of winning. Mostly they are feasting, instead, on the LibDem corpse.

But isn't the LibDem corpse exactly where Labour hoped to get enough votes from to get a majority/plurality? The polls right now show that Labour is getter fewer of the former LibDem voters than they were in polls in 2012, while the Greens are taking a bigger slice.

It's one of several hoped for sources. And 2012 was the trough year for the government for various reasons. The thing is, though, the pre-Coalition LibDems had an electoral coalition that was broad to the point of surreal. One component was comprised of the sort of people who would vote Green in any country with a semi-viable Green party; given that the Green Party now appears to be semi-viable...

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The Conservatives don't need a significant Green slice anywhere, they need one or two dozen small Green slices in line with national opinion polling in constituencies they are defending.

I'm sure that's how they see it, yes. Whether it's the right way, I'm not sure...

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Islington/Brighton

Islington is rather different to Brighton you know

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Actually threatened or perceived to be threatened? There were journalists who thought that Callaghan might be under threat in 1979, for instance.

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One of those fun 'choose your own reality' games from the polling industry today:

Populus: Labour 37, Con 32, UKIP 13, LDem 10, Green 4
Ashcroft: Con 34, Labour 28, UKIP 16, Green 8, LDem 8

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We like to think of them as that racist uncle who we pretend not to have anything to do with but who insists on turning up to family events anyway.

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Opinion polling has changed substantially in recent years; all polling companies now modify their figures (though not in the same way) in an attempt to eliminate the volatility and perceived unreliability (the industry in Britain still operates in the shadow of 1992) of previous decades.* In some respects every published opinion poll is a prediction as much as it is a survey. This means that a degree of caution is required when assessing the use of historical polling patterns to a contemporary political situation.

_{*This is not necessarily a good thing.}

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Miliband is quite good at PMQs and didn't embarrass himself in the debates for Labour leader. It shouldn't be assumed that he'd struggle at the format.

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LOL

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And we have a MORI: Labour 34, Con 33, UKIP 11, LDem 8, Green 8

This would be with MORI's usual 100% certs only; not sure what the other figures are.

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To bankrupt the LibDems? Excellent idea.

(Al Murray would, of course, have no problem finding an extra £500 to burn).

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Setting the scene, so to speak. Percentage majorities in the West Midlands last time round.

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East Midlands.

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Not yet.

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The West Country.

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South East

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The East.

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Kemptown being the more rightwards of the two Brighton proper seats is more a comment on social change in Pavilion than anything thats happened in Kemptown. And obviously also the boundary changes that brought in those places east of Brighton.

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Dumb question Al, but why does Labor do so poorly in Brighton? I thought it was a very left-wing kind of place?

Labour doesn't do badly there (in 2010 the figures ran: 35% in Kemptown, 33% in Hove, 29% in Pavilion), but in general Brighton skews Left/Alternative rather than Left/Proletarian, which ought to answer your question. Labour polls best in sketchier suburbs like Whitehawk than in the trendy city centre, though is certainly not without support there.

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Yorkshire and northern Lincs.

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The North West.

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The North East.

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It would be better to ignore all 'seat projections' as they are invariably total bullsh!t.