Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013

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If this does actually happen then it's worth remembering that turnout and turnout patterns at Assembly elections generically favour Plaid on the Island (this isn't so with Westminster elections, at which no party is generically the favourite). Still, much (most?) will depend on candidates, as is always the case.

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Yai an though some people say Yai un.

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And thus neatly confirming certain stereotypes, yet again (as if it were needed).

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Although Tal Michael isn't from the Island, he is from an Anglesey family (his father was originally from a village in the west of the Island) which won't hurt.

Daniel ap Eifion Jones stood in the Twrcelyn division and polled significantly worse than the other two Labour candidates.

Julia Dobson stood in the Talybolion division and didn't come close to getting elected.

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Tal Michael selected for Labour.

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Churchman is a Gwynedd county councillor (represents a rural part of the Eifionydd) and is the usual LibDem candidate for Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

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More candidate news.

The Tories have selected the Rev. Neil Fairlamb, who is the Rector of Beaumaris. He stood as a candidate in the Seiriol division in the county council elections and finished sixth of nine candidates (polling 582 votes and missing out on a seat by 313, which was respectable - given the presence of several prominent Beaumaris names on the ballot - but not stunning or anything).

UKIP have selected Nathan Gill, who is a businessman based in Llangefni. He also stood in Seiriol in the county council elections and finished eighth of nine candidates, polling 448 votes (447 off winning a seat).

Roughly 22% of Seiriol's voters gave a vote to Fairlamb and about 17% voted for Gill. In contrast, about 49% voted for Plaid's leading candidate (who was elected, obviously) and about 34% for Labour's top candidate (who was also elected).

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I would assume an easy to comfortable Plaid hold.

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This constituency seems to change every time it's member stands down

Only at Westminster: it has been a safe Plaid seat in the Assembly though has only ever had one member.

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42% is not at all impressive for Anglesey, something that reflects the low profile of the election. UKIP polled well in some divisions earlier this year and the Tory candidate is not exactly strong (remember they came second in 2003 and 2011 - and an ex-Tory came second in 2007 - and, obviously, held the Westminster seat 1979-87. Not all of these voters will have stayed at home) so a strong showing for them makes a lot of sense.

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Labour do hold the seat at Westminster, but with a candidate who wins because of a considerable personal vote, particularly (if I remember rightly) in some very rural parts of the Island and also on a rather low share of the poll. I would agree that third (again: Labour only finished second here in 1999!) would be disappointing.

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So this is pretty clearly going to be a very good result for Plaid, which is hardly surprising given candidate quality in a place where it matters almost as much as a party label.

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Well, their choice of candidate was certainly deeply odd. Labour just went with a fairly standard type of standard bearer (I've met him before: nice enough, but not exactly going to set the world on fire), but a mildly controversial (locally) paper candidate? When you came second in the last proper election? A bit weird, but then the Anglesey Tories are a weird bunch.

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I worry that this might be a precedent and that we might see many faces from the gogglebox running in elections.

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Not that it would have changed the outcome (obviously) but Labour should have picked someone from the Island.

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They did poll some very low scores in some South Wales seats in 2011. Blaenau Gwent might be worth a check?

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But then they basically nominated a cheese sandwich in an uncompetitive by-election in the summer, so, you know.

Still, they finished below the Scargillite candidate.

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He polled a couple more thousand than I'd guessed, hence my worry about future recruits from the telly...

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He polled a couple more thousand than I'd guessed, hence my worry about future recruits from the telly...

It's possible, though of course it wasn't a random figure from the telly, but a local boy done good on the telly.

I'm absolutely certain that that's the case, but worry that our varied and esteemed political parties may interpret things differently...

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There were other reasons for that swing (fyck you Geoff Hoon).

Yes, he's very local - went to school in Menai Bridge, etc.