EU elections predictions!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The poll is a bit old... it was done before the apparent rise of UKIP...
However the SNP and PC numbers are useful.
---
The SDP merged in the LibDems. IIRC there are still a few councillers elected as "Social Democrats" though.
Welcome to the insane world of "local" politics (stop! I'll start ranting if I don't...)

I am fully aware of the history surrounding the SDP and their continuing presence in Yorkshire(?), but I find it amazing that they polled 1% in the poll despite the fact that they are fielding no candidates.

Er...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC is reporting an exit from France showing the UMP on 16.5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All governing parties doing badly. Both Lab and Con doing badly. UKIP doing *very* well

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most ruling parties suffered "worst results since 19**"... sort of. These are European not General elections though.
---
UKIP came second in far, far too many places... and third overall (nearly coming first in the East Midlands. The Kilroy factor I presume).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UK Predictions

These are my predictions for the upcoming elections; They are broken down by region; I mad my prediction for number of votes in each region first, then calculated the number of seats; From this I have deduced that UKIP will actually be hurt by the reduction in seats from 87 to 78, but will gain in share of the vote.

Top Line Figures:
Conservative - 35.0 - 33
Labour - 24.0 - 22
Liberal Democrats - 16.0 - 10
United Kingdom Indepence Party - 10.0 - 2
Greens - 8.0 - 3
Scottish National Party  - 2
Plaid Cymru - 2

For 1999 figures, click here

Your overall predictions in terms of votes, for Labour, LD and Greenies were spot on (within a margin of error of about 2%, which is only fair) but the Tory and UKIP figures were waaaay out (I can't critise you on seats... the way they determined it was weird and the stronger-than-you-predicted UKIP vote cost both Con and Lab seats).
Your regional breakdowns weren't as good... but kudos to you for trying... I'm very, very happy that the Wales prediction was wrong
But horrified by the East Midlands result (looks like Kilroy tapped into some that "Reagan Democrat" mentality in the area).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I never expected UKIP to take so many votes off the Tories, I knew that they would take a few, but never enough to win seats, and once you pass 12/13% under this system, then you start picking up loads of seats.

I think the German system would work a LOT better for the Euro elections than the system used for the last ones...