UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boris now says the vote to leave was "not entirely overwhelming" and Gove wants the exit talks to be informal.

They're  beginning to realise what exactly they've done and they're terrified.

Plan Boris was obviously for a narrow Remain vote and for him to then ride the coattails of anger amongst Tory members in the Shires to no. 10.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boris now says the vote to leave was "not entirely overwhelming" and Gove wants the exit talks to be informal.

They're  beginning to realise what exactly they've done and they're terrified.

Plan Boris was obviously for a narrow Remain vote and for him to then ride the coattails of anger amongst Tory members in the Shires to no. 10.

Plan UKIP was the same.

Hey everyone we won! Oh fyck...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is what everybody is saying right now, but what I just can't understand. How could anyone supporting a losing side of a referendum immediately be in a good position to become the next Prime Minister?

You ever met part of the Blue Rinse Brigade? These people basically run off bile. And sherry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Only had a junior role as a Shadow Transport Minister, but Richard Burden (B'ham Northfield) is indicative: he's very left wing. And now he's gone too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bizarre: apparently Angela Eagle requested a one-to-one meeting with Corbyn and only resigned when she had not had a response 24hrs later. What on earth is going on?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It isn't possible to call a snap election now. An early election is possible but there are tricky hoops to go through and May has repeatedly ruled out the idea of calling one. She might change her mind (who the hell knows anything this year) but there would be risks attached.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The career of George Osborne: RIP HP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Moderate Conservative Theresa May

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So Leadsom to deal with the end of CAP. Amusing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More importantly that means Sunderland need to find someone else. Last rumour I heard was Moyes...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sir Antony Jay (one of the co-writers of Yes Minister; he was the right-wing one) has died aged 86. Kind of apt that he died on the same day as what I suppose we must call Traingate. Think he would have been amused anyway...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We all just lost the Keith Vaz game.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

hey look everyone who is back in the news

The only surprising thing here is that apparently she was a member again? I had missed that...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

well this is embarrassing

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thomas Mair convicted of Jo Cox's murder: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38079594

Whole life tariff imposed as you'd expect given that this was a political assassination and terrorism. A point made by the judge in his sentencing remarks.

Anyway...

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Comparable datasets to US exit polls don't actually exist in the UK, which means that if you want NUMBERS you must rely on poll aggregates (problematic to say the least). The most methodologically sound of these is the set produced by MORI; if you see a different post-election dataset being quoted then you immediately know that the person in question is not worth listening to.

Market research companies traditionally use the NRS social grade system which is also problematic because it was designed to reflect the distribution of jobs within a manufacturing-driven economy and has not aged well. The descriptive terms to describe the categories increasingly feel very arbitrary (but then they were always odd: it makes very little sense to class a foreman and a tradesman in the same social category, particularly if you're looking at voting habits, and makes less sense to then add farmers to the same group) and the distribution of jobs into categories in some cases feels not so much arbitrary as willfully perverse...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, probably the best way of putting this is to say that in most of the country most of Labour's vote comes from people who are white and working class, and that a significant share comes from this direction even in more diverse areas. The percentage who vote that way is generally highest in the old heavy industrial districts (particularly the old coalfields) and lowest in agricultural areas without much of a Labour tradition. The inverse of this is basically true of the Conservative Party, particularly now that the historic Working Class Tory vote that existed in some industrial areas (Lancashire for instance) has gone into terminal decline. For both major parties things are most volatile on this count in newer settlements, particularly the New Towns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I assume the tradesman votes more Tory?

Er... no. Other way round

There's a cliché - and as is often the way there's a grain of truth to it - of workers turning Tory the moment they get promoted to foreman.

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Parochial_boy is right; it would depend on your position within whatever firm you work in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Since when did tradespeople and people who own small business vote Labour?! Not since the Blair landslides of '97 and '01. Cameron would have crushed Miliband with this demographic and Corbyn will likely do even worse.

Er... plenty of people in the trades vote Labour? Of course if we man 'man who owns a small building firm and employs a handful of people' or the like, sure, he's almost certainly a Tory, but he's also not the sort of person I was thinking of. Not the same demographic at all; another mark against the C2 category!*

_{*Though some of those people would actually be graded as AB! Depends on what job description they've given themselves; of course that job titles are the main thing looked at for all these things is problematic as well, but that's another matter entirely...}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Funny business in heavily Pakistani and Bangladeshi wards has, for the record, involved members of a very wide range of parties (Tories and LibDems as well as Labour, to say nothing of local parties which turned out to be the issue in Tower Hamlets). And often people who have been members of multiple parties over the years. Most of it is about local power and local politics, naturally.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trollish suggestion to reduce the impact of possible electoral fraud in such areas: move all local polls to GE day

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I don't know why remainers are hyping up the whole AUGH THE ENTIRE ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE thing. They're just setting themselves up for "well, see, not everything is on fire and you're aurally causing the investment to go down by being so panicking you unpatriotic sucker".

Well you saw the campaign they ran didn't you.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is cheap. I am cheap. I laughed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was a politically binding referendum but not an administratively binding one (i.e. it was officially defined as advisory) which had interesting consequences for the campaign because it removed the implicit legal threats that hang over elections here wrt campaign rhetoric and propaganda. Yes, yet another of Cameron's clever little tricks that backfired...