Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's my contribution towards making a fool of myself:

Ah, don't be so hard on yourself
Only one prediction looks... odd...

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Surrey North was never a safe Conservative riding; it's a mix of docks and blue collar suburbs. A sort of Canadian Thurrock (without the more average outer suburbs in a couple of places). Traditionally a strong NDP area and IIRC they got some of their best margins in B.C in the area in the last provincial election.
As an aside, there's a lot of ironic place names in Canada isn't there? Not just this one... Cambridge and Windsor are both blue collar Union towns for example...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New poll (Ipsos-Reid)...

Con 33% (+1), Lib 32% (-1), NDP 18% (+2)

When I can find regional stuff I'll post it

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some new polls out today. First SES...

Con 36%, Lib 33%, NDP 15%, BQ 13%

That's a lead just about outside the MoE.

Tories lead in West and Ontario (!), BQ in Quebec and Liberals in the Atlantic. NDP strongest in the West and the Atlantic.

SES has consistently shown better Liberal numbers than almost any other pollster.

...and then EKOS...

Con 36.2%, Lib 30.4%, NDP 17.9%, BQ 10.4%, Grn 4.7%

A clear lead, no?

*If* this poll is correct, the Tories are basically tied with the Liberals in *Quebec* and have surged in B.C.

Oh... and 58% of voters think that Goodale should resign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional highlights from the recent Ipsos-Reid poll...

*A tight three-way race in BC (with the NDP ahead of the Liberals by 1pt)

*Tories on 63% in Alberta... with the Liberals in *third* place with just 11%...

*Tories and NDP both doing better in Prairies than last election. Always have to be careful with Prairie breakdowns though.

*Tories LEAD IN ONTARIO by 5pts

*Standard-issue Quebec numbers

*Standard-issue Atlantic numbers

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tell me again, what date is the election on? Maybe edit it into the thread title or sumpin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Leger poll has the BQ on 45% in Quebec

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quick summary...

Torys barely ahead nationally, right at the margin of error.

Fundementals moving very strongly to Harper and away from Martin.

I expect very soon "soft" support indicators such as "who do you trust most", "who represents your values best" etc will see Harper either tie or overtake Martin.

Sounds about right

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Ah... now that's interesting...

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Do you know whether they're rebounding mainly in the Lower Mainland or in the Interior? Would be useful to know.

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Mainly because of Toronto, right? Do you know if they're still leading in the 905 or not?

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Interesting

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Seems about right actually; there's another debate in a few days isn't there? A possible turning point ala '84?

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Other than this: "it's close"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories with an 8pt lead in a new Strategic Counsel poll. Regional stuff is somewhat dubious in places but two things still look very interesting; Liberals have crashed to third in the Prairies (which includes Alberta for this poll) with what looks to be a direct 5pt swing to the Dippers, while the Tories are on 19% in Quebec... up 11pts since the last poll...

The former is almost certainly due to Goodale's dodgy dealings, while the latter has been noted in other polls already.

Could Martin be Turner? Another debate tonight IIRC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder if Goodale will lose his seat?

Possible; you do see huge upsets from time to time (Howe, Dingwall etc)... only thing would be...

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Yes but... in 2000 he was only 5pts ahead of the CA candidate...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Decima poll shows the Tories with a 9pt lead. Rumour has it that Ipsos-Reid are about to release a poll showing an 11pt lead and that EKOS has something earth shattering...

Looking pretty damn bleak for Martin now in't it? He now has to win the debate and win it well or he's toast IMO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe it won't even matter if he wins the debate...people can still like (or at least not hate) the party leader and hate the party.

True ('though Martin himself ain't too popular right now). Still, unless Harper gaffes bigtime, it's probably his last chance at saving political career.
I'm starting to wonder if the Liberals could go completely belly-up actually... what'll be interesting is what happens if (and I still don't see it happening, however much I'd like it to) the gap between the NDP and the Liberals is *smaller* than between the Liberals and the Tories... in more than one poll.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1993 PC belly up?

Nah; they've got too many rubber-stamp Tammany Hall strongholds to let that happen... but I get the feeling that this could be 1984 all over again. Maybe not. Maybe tonight will see the beginning of a Martin comeback of Lazarus-like proportions. Probably not though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unless Martin can somehow fend off the tide and get the Liberals into a near majority or majority government...how does he stay in power?

He doesn't. If the Liberals aren't the biggest party, the Tories are and Harper will be PM. If the result is a narrow Minority for the Liberals, then Martin is deposed in a rather brutal way (although probably not *quite* as brutally as what their sister party has just done to their leader. Youch... something about the word "liberal" in parties names does this apparently...) and (most likely) some ex-Premier (McKenna?) will take over.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure if I'm reporting this right but...

Ipsos-Reid sez...

Con 37%, Liberal 26%, NDP 18%, BQ 14%, Grn 5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

General consensus seems to be that Martin failed to win the debate. Not good for him; he's about to go extremely negative methinks.

And here's the EKOS poll they held back 'til after the debates...

Con 39.1%, Lib 26.8%, NDP 16.2%, BQ 12.6%, Grn 4.6%

Tories ahead in Ontario (by a lot) and in second place in Quebec...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of my dad's best friends(NDP-Montreal) is running for parliament.

Which riding?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine

Hey, Al do you have any data on the riding? I would like to know more about his chances of getting elected.

2004 result: Lib 53%, BQ 22%, Con 10%, NDP 7%, Grn 5%. NDP % across Quebec was about 4%.

Oh and have a look at this:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/riding/24045-notre-dame-de-grace-lachine.htm

And this as well:

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/riding/080/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the Liberals have had to pull some negative ads

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New poll from SC (+/- refer to previous poll)

Con 38% (+1), Lib 28% (-1), NDP 16% (+1), BQ 12% (-1)

Trendlines continue to be devastating for the Liberals; since the resumption of the campaign after Christmas, they've been dropping like a stone. In Quebec the Liberals are in third place; and outside the Montreal metro it's an extremely distant third place (with the Tories on around 30%).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't have any breakdown numbers but... if the Tories really *are* polling around 30% outside the Montreal metro, then there's a possibility they might actually be *leading* around Quebec City... apparently they're also doing very well in the Eastern Townships (Charest more-or-less coming out for Harper has seen to that methinks).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Grits down by 9 in a new SES track. Trail Tories everywhere but the Atlantic; where their lead is now down to single digits.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There will be no Tory candidate in British Columbia Southern Interior; the current Tory candidate is in trouble over smuggling charges. It's too late for the Tories to pick a new candidate. The previous candidate will still be on the ballot; he won't be let into the Tory caucus if he wins though. Harper acted so fast on this it must have made the guy's head spin...
The riding in question (which runs along the U.S border, largely north of Washington IIRC) was a razor-thin Con/NDP marginal last election and the current Tory M.P is standing down this election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Recent numbers (in almost all cases) have the BQ somewhere between about 45% and about 50%, with the *Tories* in second place (hovering around 20%) and the Liberals not far behind. Further breakdowns indicate that the Liberals have almost totally collapsed outside Greater Montreal (where they're still polling in the high '20's to low '30's). Tories on about 30% in the rest of Quebec in more than one poll.

One problem; the best pollster as far as Quebec goes is Leger... and they haven't released a poll since before the Tory surge in Quebec. Should be very interesting to see their numbers when they do release one though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a possibility that the Tory surge would split anti-Liberal (Bloc and Tory) vote outside Montreal, ironically causing Liberal victories elsewhere in Quebec?

Not sure... there might, just might, be one or two seats where that could happen... have to check the '04 results though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Ekos is right and if this isn't a blip, the Liberals *may* have begun to bleed support to the NDP. Only a smallish % change but...
Wait and see.