My Finish Predictions - Iowa (user search)
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  My Finish Predictions - Iowa (search mode)
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Author Topic: My Finish Predictions - Iowa  (Read 22181 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: January 17, 2004, 01:16:14 PM »
It's waaaaaaay too close to call.

All 4 can win and all 4 are within the MoE...
I think that Edwards might be able to pull it off as he is campaigning strongly in rural areas and as a result his numbers might be underestimated.
He also has the momentum; look at the IA polls a month ago and compare to now.

It's going to be a really close finish...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,890
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2004, 02:37:50 PM »
Like I said he has a strong following in rural areas (Zogby has him leading in Central Iowa) and this could mean that his numbers are understated.
But I don't know that.

Another point to consider:

The higher the turnout the better chance Edwards has of winning.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,890
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2004, 04:32:33 PM »
A SurveyUSA poll showed that Edwards had a lead in IA if "probable" voters were included.
I'm guessing it's to do with rural voters.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,890
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2004, 04:46:00 PM »
For Edwards to win Iowa he needs a high turnout.
Turnout could be crucial.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2004, 06:13:09 AM »
Des Moines Register:
Quote
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2004, 06:19:50 AM »
The Iowa Poll Numbers

Kerry-------------26%
Edwards---------23%
Dean-------------20%
Gephardt--------18%
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,890
United Kingdom


« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2004, 10:52:54 AM »
Edwards is in strategically the best position as he doesn't need to win Iowa.
A strong 2nd, 3rd or even 4th (if it's very close) would be a huge boost to his campaign which should be enough to win SC.
It's similer for Kerry.

Gephardt needs to win (obvious, eh?), as does Dean.
If Dean fails to win Iowa whatever momentum his campaign had will evaporate.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 67,890
United Kingdom


« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2004, 01:44:55 PM »
All four could win and it's still waaaaaaaaaaay too close to call...
The caucus system means that polls are not as usefull as in NH...
However it makes for a very interesting race!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,890
United Kingdom


« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2004, 12:46:33 PM »
Latest Zogby numbers:

Kerry       25%
Dean       22%
Edwards  21%
Gephardt 18%

No matter what position Edwards finishes in Iowa will be a boost to his campaign.
I don't think that it's wise to rule out Gephardt, although things are looking bad for him.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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Posts: 67,890
United Kingdom


« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2004, 02:48:40 PM »
Iowa will probably be decided by the 15% rule... it's going to go down to the wire.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,890
United Kingdom


« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2004, 05:35:04 AM »
Examples? just curious Smiley
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