Which Gore States Would Kerry Lose?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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He'll probably ignore it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've changed my mind on Kerry.
He campaigned well in IA and now looks the part without seeming to look down on people.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A few things to remember about West Virginia.

1. Bush did not win WV because of gun control. The main reason seems to have been his then support for steel tariffs. One of his best areas of WV was the Northern Panhandle (ie; Wheeling) and that's not happening this year.

2. The WVGOP is very weak. It has no strong organisation outside the Eastern Panhandle and surrounding area.

3. The Dems will hold the Governer's chair:
They will probably run WVSOS Joe Manchin, who is very popular.

4. The Dems will hold both Senate seats when they become vacant (which will be quite a while. Can you see Byrd retiring from the Senate?) The WVGOP does not have many viable candidates, the WVDP has plenty.

5. If the Dems run someone who sounds fairly populist they should pick WV up.
Class War sells in WV.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that the most vunerable Gore state is Wisconsin, Clinton never cleared 50% there and Nader-LaDuke was not a factor there either.

I don't think that America is split down the middle, I think that the GOP will always have about 33% solid support (although where this is is subject to sudden changes) and the Dems 33% (ditto) with 33% as habitual vote splitters.