Two Midlands by-elections...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...are due soon. Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill.
I'll guess that we lose Leicester South but hold B HH. Just a guess though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...are due soon. Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill.
I'll guess that we lose Leicester South but hold B HH. Just a guess though.

I assume its a swing to the Tories?

(or the LDs?)

Hodge Hill is rather Reagan Democratish (went Tory in a by-election in the '70's, though Labour won it back in '79. Called Brum' Stechford then) while Leicester South is a strongly Asian lower middle class area (locally almost all the councillers are LD's. Local elections are not national elections though) and the M.P's that's just died had a big personal vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm actually going to be pounding on doors in Leicester South soonish ...but its a very strong area i really doubt we will lose it, not with my populist Blairite aproch...

The danger is of an anti-war protest vote (mind you the Labour candidate is more "anti-war" than the LD candidate)... and the LD's are playing dirty ethnic politics...
Heres hoping that Galloway's mob put a candidate up... and that Kilroy-Silk doesn't stand...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hodge Hill *should* stay Labour (in the locals Labour won most of the wards in the seat and it's got a large working class population. Getting them out is gonna be a problem though) although the 1977 by-election gives cause to worry. Depends on the candidates I suppose (and if it's lost it'll be regained next year).
Could be more like the recent-ish Ogmore by-election than the '77 Stechford Shocker.
I hope.

Leicester Council is run by an unholy coalition of the LibDems and Tories... and is rather unpopular.
The Labour candidate is very, very anti-war and was the leader of the council 'till last year BUT he lost his seat that year.
The LibDem candidate won a credible 17% of the vote in 2001 and is Asian BUT he's a Sikh. Muslims do not vote for Sikhs (look at Bradford West). He might also be mentally linked with the Council.
The Tory candidate is an MEP. BUT there was a bad smell about his selection as candidate.
There was a rumour than R-KS was going to run for UKIP. Looks unlikely BUT they will poll strongly.
RESPECT is a wildcard and will take most of the Muslim protest votes... IF they can find a candidate.
The seat is mostly lower middle class and has a large Asian population. Do not rule out the BNP winning back there deposit.
Waaaaaaaaaaay to close to call either way(s).
---
Ben: could you report on the Sign War please?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Big problem for the LD's in the Brum HH by election: it seems that the Tories and LD's have struck an unholy deal ala Leicester.

Oh and found a great link: http://www.hodge-hill-election.blogspot.com/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the HH blog:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right. From Thursday I’ll be pounding doors in Leicester every day till I go off to the T Festival (music festival in Scotland) and then when I get back I’ll be doing the same up until polling day… I’m a bit despondent but my populism, much as it diverges from the official party line, usually plays well and has done in the past when I say I’m Canadian ( ), any advice always welcome    

Well in HH Labour are running a socially conservative campaign, obviously trying to get all those Reagan Democrats (and there are a lot of these in Eastern Brum) out to vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right. From Thursday I’ll be pounding doors in Leicester every day till I go off to the T Festival (music festival in Scotland) and then when I get back I’ll be doing the same up until polling day… I’m a bit despondent but my populism, much as it diverges from the official party line, usually plays well and has done in the past when I say I’m Canadian ( ), any advice always welcome    

Well in HH Labour are running a socially conservative campaign, obviously trying to get all those Reagan Democrats (and there are a lot of these in Eastern Brum) out to vote.

My referances to the Liberals would be bassically...

Done Jack in their time leading the council.

Big Tax and Spenders "taking money out of your pockets".

Wimpy, WishyWashy... not sure how I'll convey that one though  

Three little words: Soft. On. Crime.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right. From Thursday I’ll be pounding doors in Leicester every day till I go off to the T Festival (music festival in Scotland) and then when I get back I’ll be doing the same up until polling day… I’m a bit despondent but my populism, much as it diverges from the official party line, usually plays well and has done in the past when I say I’m Canadian ( ), any advice always welcome    

Well in HH Labour are running a socially conservative campaign, obviously trying to get all those Reagan Democrats (and there are a lot of these in Eastern Brum) out to vote.

My referances to the Liberals would be bassically...

Done Jack in their time leading the council.

Big Tax and Spenders "taking money out of your pockets".

Wimpy, WishyWashy... not sure how I'll convey that one though  

Three little words: Soft. On. Crime.

Very Good! I shall remember that one throw it in their with some talk on their plans to jack-up taxes i drove through town today and in Leicester East I saw six LibDem posters and two Labour ones, but then again I would expect the Liberals to be highly motivated in this contest

From what I hear they are throwing everything at it... the demographics (large Asian minority, mostly lower middle class) are much better for them than Reagan Democratish (albeit with a large Asian minority) Brum HH... and their over-rated elections boss (Rennard) is from the area...

The LibDems in the House voted against the recent Anti Social Behavior thingy. Use that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right. From Thursday I’ll be pounding doors in Leicester every day till I go off to the T Festival (music festival in Scotland) and then when I get back I’ll be doing the same up until polling day… I’m a bit despondent but my populism, much as it diverges from the official party line, usually plays well and has done in the past when I say I’m Canadian ( ), any advice always welcome    

Well in HH Labour are running a socially conservative campaign, obviously trying to get all those Reagan Democrats (and there are a lot of these in Eastern Brum) out to vote.

My referances to the Liberals would be bassically...

Done Jack in their time leading the council.

Big Tax and Spenders "taking money out of your pockets".

Wimpy, WishyWashy... not sure how I'll convey that one though  

Three little words: Soft. On. Crime.

Very Good! I shall remember that one throw it in their with some talk on their plans to jack-up taxes i drove through town today and in Leicester East I saw six LibDem posters and two Labour ones, but then again I would expect the Liberals to be highly motivated in this contest

From what I hear they are throwing everything at it... the demographics (large Asian minority, mostly lower middle class) are much better for them than Reagan Democratish (albeit with a large Asian minority) Brum HH... and their over-rated elections boss (Rennard) is from the area...

The LibDems in the House voted against the recent Anti Social Behavior thingy. Use that.

I will! Got the full name for the bill?  This is great stuff Al, I must confess I always talk tax myself and how “they” would jack up your tax

Well I start tomorrow morning so I must now go off and get some rest

This is from Tom Watson's site (www.tom-watson.co.uk) :

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

We Lost by 1,500 votes! a majoirty of over 10,000 gone and the people voted in an ineffective Liberal who can do squat for the area!

Well looks the like it'll go Labour at the general but it will take some work... GOD DAMN IT! I'M MAD! Who the hell votes for that bunch of F"LK$"£$ Hampsters! Who?

Well we won Hodge Hill all be it by a little under 500 votes but a win is a win and that will increase at the general... right I'm going to go and nurse my headache from last night...  

Two little words: Low Turnout.
Remember that sudden downpouring of heavy rain? At least 1000 Labour voters in Brum HH were put off by it.

The behavior of the LibDems at the Birmingham count was shocking though... shouting "David Kelly" over and over again was just sickening.
And I'm really, really glad that Nokia Davies lost.

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Leicester South
LD 34,9
Labour 29,3
Tories 19,7
Respect 12,7 (!!!)
7 others
turnout 41,6 - not at all low for an urban byelection in the UK these days.

Leicester South is part Urban part Suburban though... mostly lower middle class, high asian population etc.
The high Trot vote can be explained like this: The new LibDem M.P is a Sikh (albiet not a very religious one). There are a lot of Muslims in Leicester who wanted to cast a protest vote, but would never ever vote for a Sikh.

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Rain depressed Labour vote by a lot... Brum HH is a mix of working class white suburbs and a run down heavily Pakistani sh*thole called Washwood Heath. People in Washwood Heath vote earlier than people in the rest of the seat, and the big majorities Terry Davies got were a result of white working class voters coming back from work and going to vote.
When the rain came down Labour organisers in Brum HH got worried.

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Singh Gill is a lot safer than Teather is in Brent East, because of the ethnic vote... although it'll be interesting to see where the "rebel Muslim" vote goes to.
The Tories put a hellofalot of work into Leicester South (candidate was an MEP and they inundated the area with Tory bigwigs. Howard even sent his wife!) and came a poor third. In a seat that they won in 1970, 1974 (Feb) and 1983.
And the last time that Birmingham Hodge Hill/Stechford had a by-election (in 1977) the Tories won.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I noticed in 2001 that the Tories seemed to be doing rather worse in those marginals were they put up a big effort with bigwig guests.
Just shows how unpopular the name of Conservatives has become .

True. If the Tories had a chance of winning the next general election, Leicester South would have been an easy by-election win and they would have come close (possibly even repeating 1977) in Brum HH.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did you do some work over at HH Al?

No... but I had some good contacts

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Mobile Phone masts and ASBO's carried the day...

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Soulsby did a lot better than I thought he would... it'll be a good fight next election with the key being those Muslims who wouldn't vote Labour because of Iraq (despite Soulsby being opposed to the war) and wouldn't vote for a Sikh.
Re: Crackheads and Junkies... I think that may have been Tom Watson's idea. He's one to watch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Soulsby will probably go for it again in the general election, he has much to gain and he is the strongest candidate for the area, without the resources and "bandwagon" the Liberals may well be hard pressed to hold on either here or in Brent... well we shall see  and the point about the rain is a good one, I’d say that in Birmingham at the General Labour should take a majority of say 4,000 give or take, In Brent I could see us retaking it,  while in Leicester I could see the Liberals or Labour taking a very very slim majority…  

More than 4000... Brum CC (unholy coalition of C-LD) will be very unpopular by the time of the General Election...
And if crime rises in Washwood Heath the LibDems have had it...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Soulsby will probably go for it again in the general election, he has much to gain and he is the strongest candidate for the area, without the resources and "bandwagon" the Liberals may well be hard pressed to hold on either here or in Brent... well we shall see  and the point about the rain is a good one, I’d say that in Birmingham at the General Labour should take a majority of say 4,000 give or take, In Brent I could see us retaking it,  while in Leicester I could see the Liberals or Labour taking a very very slim majority…  

More than 4000... Brum CC (unholy coalition of C-LD) will be very unpopular by the time of the General Election...
And if crime rises in Washwood Heath the LibDems have had it...

Agreed, the amazing thing is Labour only has to worry about the Lib Dems, while the Conservatives for all their efforts are completly at a loss to achive any breakthrough... but the new Labour MP in HH seems like a very strong candidate and a favouite of the Party leadership and his speach was excellent both in HH and LS the Liberals had very poor speeches indeed, while the Tories and Labour candidate (win or lose) where gracious and in HH the Labour candidate was cheered to the rafters in the PUB where we were watching the results come in...just hoping for fine weather in the General Election.

Byrne got better as the campaign wore on... he appeared for about 10 seconds on Midlands Today and came off as rather oily (not as bad as Nokia Davies though) but suspect that was because he wasn't used to TV stuff... mentioning the word "yobs" 5 times in 10 seconds doesn't work... he was excellent in his speech though, and made all those LibDem/Respect hecklers look like the bad losers they were...
Could be a good M.P
But Nokia Davies speech was awful... she praised the hecklers. I have never, ever seen a second place candidate do that before...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ben: could you report on the Sign War please?

Sorry only just noticed this Al... well the Liberals had a very very big lead early on and where carefull to go down all the main roads asking people if they could put up "LOTS" of signs and for the entire campaign we where playing catch up that said by the final days the only differance really was that the Liberals had some really prime spots while Labour signs where sadly where less visable despite in terms of numbers them both being fairly even

Interesting... seems to me that far from gaining in the last few days (which is of course what the LibDems want people to think) they nearly blew a solid lead...
So much for the "brilliant" Lord Rennard (outwitted by a mile in Brum by Tom Watson)...