2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, it now comes down to establishment candidate Huber and wife-cheater Seehofer. I really wonder who'll win this.

Safe Seehofer

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hesse (FGW, 12/07)

CDU 40%
SPD 34%
GRÜNE 9%
FDP 7%
DIE LINKE 6%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/GRÜNE.

I'll go out on a limb and predict the result right now:

CDU 40.5%
SPD 36%
Grüne 8%
FDP 6%
Linke 6%

Already any clue for which party you´ll vote ?

He will obviously vote CDU as not only is he a dedicated supporter of that party, he is also a big fan of Roland Koch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is election.de (site Old Europe seems to love)'s current prediction of direct seats in Hesse. Dark blue is safe CDU, light blue likely CDU, light red likely SPD, dark red safe SPD. (Actually, you could also say that either shade of blue is CDU hold, light red is SPD gain, and dark red is SPD hold. )
I have some problems with this prognosis. Maybe they have special access to internals showing the CDU doing worse in the city of Frankfurt than outside it or something, but there's several seats shown as "safe CDU" that you'd expect to fall before three of the four "likely CDU" Frankfurt seats. Maybe they're just expecting red-green vote splitting to reach the kind of levels it had in recent Bundestag elections, considering it artificially deflated in the last two statewides - a case for that claim can certainly be made. (as there's been a massive increase in vote splitting in all elections since 1995) Doesn't really explain how Sachsenhausen is not safe for the CDU on a statewiede poll lead of 6-13 percent (they're taking all recent polls into account). Vogelsberg *safe* CDU?

Is there a link with results from last time?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boredom is a dreadful thing:



Colours sometimes random, sometimes only semi-random. Apologies for any mistakes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Key is the same as used for all those U.K maps I made a while back.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be amusing if the SPD did better in both Lower Saxony and Hesse than Hamburg.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time do the results start to come through?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, if that stays as it is, Koch's out?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, I was predicting... but it's extremely hard to imagine.

Good news then

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something strike you as odd about this map?

One of the districts that went SPD in 2003 didn't this year?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Map of the direct-seat results in Hesse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Göttingen/Kassel thing shows up quite clearly. But what's with the big swing to the SPD in Salzgitter?

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Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saxony:

CDU: 41%
Left Party: 22%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
NPD: 4%

Anything to do with those headlines following that poll last year?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saxony:

CDU: 41%
Left Party: 22%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
NPD: 4%

Anything to do with those headlines following that poll last year?

What headlines/poll?

Wasn't there that poll that had the NPD leading the SPD last autumn? I remember someone posting that here. I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

csu down 6 seats; greens up 3 seats in the city council.

well done landshut!

Was this expected? And what's Landshut like?

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I'm almost surprised that there's only one SPD MP opposed to it. But why did she publically announce her opposition?

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What a depressing set of figures. And since when were the FPÖ centre-anything?

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A "slightly" messy way to get rid of a leader, no?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Billy Bragg at the Batschkapp tonight).

Have fun

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Party strength maps for SPD, Greens, FW and (to a lesser extent) FDP would be pretty interesting, I think.

Is that a hint [qm]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Party strength maps for SPD, Greens, FW and (to a lesser extent) FDP would be pretty interesting, I think.

Is that a hint [qm]

Oh aye.

Working on it

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol:

http://don-paskini.blogspot.com/2008/09/campaign-diary.html