PA-12 - Susquehanna - Murtha (D) 46%, Russell (R) 41%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generally very conservative Democrats with a lot of veterans.  If Murtha hadn't been there forever, it would be GOP leaning district.

Right. When pigs fly.
This district was purpose-drawn to create the Republican seats around it (one of which flipped in 2006).

Uh...the idea that this seat is at least a tossup when Murtha leaves is well respected by both sides.

"It is commonly believed by political hacks that..." and "it is rational to think that..." seldom have much to do with each other.

For reference...



...whatever that is, it's not an innocently-drawn district of any sort. I'm sure it's a complete coincidence that it borders on no less than three "natural" marginal districts...

Interestingly, Murtha underperformed in the western half of the district in 2006. This guy clearly doesn't win off the back of a personal vote, not these days anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can find quite a few Democratic "hacks" that agree with me, Al.

Of course you can. I didn't specify a party in that description.

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I stand by that statement because it's obviously true. He has a personal vote of sorts in the east of the district (ie; the areas he's represented for decades), but his numbers in the western half were frankly anemic.

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Presumably not in the initial election. But a generic Democrat would have won in that district by quite a bit more than Murtha did in 2006. Especially if our mythical generic Democrat had been a Congresscritter for much of the area for decades.

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District's lost too many people to stay as it is. The logical thing to do would be to create a larger version of the old PA-20, I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why would Democratic hacks say that the seat is a tossup?

By "political hacks" I did not mean "ultra-partisan idiots" but the world of activists, staffers and so on.

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You could at least take the trouble to consider my argument here as opposed to snorting loudly. You know, for someone capable of treating "good morning" as a grievous personal slight, you can be astonishingly rude to other people.

Murtha % by county:

Washington: 57.8%
Greene: 58.5%
Fayette: 63.7%
Somerset: 59.1%
Cambria: 68.9%
Indiana: 56.1%
Armstrong: 50.9%
Allegheny: 63.2%
Westmoreland: 57.4%

Note that the less Democratic bits of each of those counties tend not to be in this district. Consider also the climate of the election and some of the results in nearby districts.

I repeat: if Murtha ever did win because of a personal vote, he doesn't now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good morning, Mr. Pot...

Typically my words are ruder than the intention behind them.

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IIRC she was a local politician of some sort in one of the western counties (Fayette I think. Maybe Washington). Which isn't really a good enough explanation except, perhaps, in the individual county in question.