Most likely running mates for Hilary and Rubio? (user search)
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  Most likely running mates for Hilary and Rubio? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Most likely running mates for Hilary and Rubio?  (Read 4336 times)
Mister Mets
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« on: December 10, 2012, 02:14:47 AM »

Keeping in mind the possibility that the next Veep may not have been elected to office yet (see Richard Nixon, Spiro Agnew and Sarah Palin), or may not have risen to prominence yet (see Paul Ryan).

Hillary's qualifications are impressive enough that she doesn't need to make up for any shortcomings. And she can have her pick of middle-aged to old white guys. I don't think she'd choose a woman, or anyone from New York/ Arkansas.

The long list would include...
Mark Warner- Because of his combination of business/ executive and legislative experience, as well as his help in a crucial swing state.
Tim Kaine- Same reason. He's also slightly younger than Warner.
Charlie Crist- May help in Florida. Will allow Clinton to depict the Republicans as a group of crazy radicals.
Julian Castro- Can excite Latinos and younger voters. Executive of a city with a population greater than New Hampshire.
John Hickenlooper- Swing state Governor.
Martin O'Malley- Does no harm. Currently under Fifty.
Brian Schweitzer- Politically talented.
Jon Tester- Survived two close elections. Appeal to rural white voters.
Gavin Newsom- The most prominent white guy under fifty (in 2016) the Democrats seem to have. Possible Governor of California.

Rubio could also have his pick of Veeps, since he doesn't have much downside from the optics and can choose among Senators, Governors, Congressmen, etc.
Potential choices include...
John Thune- Generic Washington insider.
Rob Portman- Generic Washington insider from crucial swing state. Expert on financial matters.
Paul Ryan- The similarities to Rubio could be appealing. He handled himself well the first time around. And he seems to be the go-to guy on financial matters.
Jon Huntsman- His background matches well with Rubio's (Southern Senator+ Western Governor). He has credibility with Independents, as well as foreign policy and business experience.
Chris Christie- Hell of an attack dog.
Scott Brown- Appeal to moderates. Unlikely to embarrass the campaign. Familiar with national glare.
Condoleeza Rice- Foreign policy experience and high approval ratings.
John Boehner- Head of a major legislative body. Comes from a swing state. Possibly the most popular Speaker in decades (the competition is weak, though).
Tim Pawlenty- Two-time also ran. Unlikely to embarrass the campaign. Appeal to midwestern voters. Qualified for national office.
Susanna Martinez- Qualified woman with a different background. May help with western swing states.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2012, 01:38:44 AM »

Keeping in mind the possibility that the next Veep may not have been elected to office yet (see Richard Nixon, Spiro Agnew and Sarah Palin), or may not have risen to prominence yet (see Paul Ryan).

Hillary's qualifications are impressive enough that she doesn't need to make up for any shortcomings. And she can have her pick of middle-aged to old white guys. I don't think she'd choose a woman, or anyone from New York/ Arkansas.

The long list would include...
Mark Warner- Because of his combination of business/ executive and legislative experience, as well as his help in a crucial swing state.
Tim Kaine- Same reason. He's also slightly younger than Warner.
Charlie Crist- May help in Florida. Will allow Clinton to depict the Republicans as a group of crazy radicals.
Julian Castro- Can excite Latinos and younger voters. Executive of a city with a population greater than New Hampshire.
John Hickenlooper- Swing state Governor.
Martin O'Malley- Does no harm. Currently under Fifty.
Brian Schweitzer- Politically talented.
Jon Tester- Survived two close elections. Appeal to rural white voters.
Gavin Newsom- The most prominent white guy under fifty (in 2016) the Democrats seem to have. Possible Governor of California.

So why are you excluding Gov. Deval Patrick
I'm not sure I'm excluding Patrick. The long list would be expected to include dozens of people. I just wouldn't rate him as highly as the others.

I also didn't mention Utah Congressman Jim Matheson, Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, possible Virginia Governor Terry Mcauliffe, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown or possible New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, all of whom have at least a trivial chance of being Hillary's running mate. There just isn't enough space or time to consider everyone.

Deval Patrick is a plausible presidential candidate, so it's possible that he'll do really well in primaries, and impress primary voters/ the Clinton campaign enough to make him the #2.

But there are a few knocks against him...

Massachusetts is not a swing state. And it's not located in a geographically useful place for a presidential campaign. Plus, Deval Patrick didn't even get 50% of the vote in 2010 when he was up for reelection.

Deval Patrick was an early endorser of Obama in in 2008. So Hillary may bear a grudge.

After two terms of the first African-American President, there isn't tremendous benefit to picking an African-American running mate. The bigger milestone had already been reached. It may help with turnout, but any change is likely to be negligible. Hillary would already have the first African-American President as a campaign surrogate. And she will likely have impressed his fans with her service in his administration.

Deval Patrick will be 60 in 2016. So this would be a presidential ticket with a combined age of 128.

As a former Governor, Patrick won't really be able to help in Washington DC. He doesn't really have connections there. It's worth noting that since 1944, 13 out of 15 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominees have been Senators. The exceptions were Sergent Shriver, the Brother-in-Law of a former President (and also of a sitting Senator) who replaced Senator Eagleton, and Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2012, 05:00:03 PM »

This is more of a hypothetical, but any Democrat elected Governor of Michigan or Wisconsin might be on Hillary's shortlist, considering the appeal to Unions of the candidate who defeated Snyder or Walker.

Vincent Shaheen, the 2010 Democratic candidate for Governor in South Carolina, currently leads Nikki Haley in polls. If he wins, he'll likely be considered.

Only governors or young senators need a VP with "Washington experience." She doesn't need a VP for that because she's already got it. Already has foreign policy experience too. If she lacks anything, it's governing experience (though I think managing the State Department is definitely big executive experience, and she's also married to a former President/Governor). So she gets a A- in that area, unlike A+'s in the other 2 areas.

Biden wasn't from a swing state either. Neither was Palin. Or Lieberman. Or Cheney. (Edwards and Ryan were, and they lost their home states, not that close in either one). Home state really doesn't matter when it comes to VP selection.

Picking Deval Patrick would effectively marry her coalition to the Obama coalition, since Deval Patrick was such an early supporter, and such a good defender at the 2012 DNC convention. As well as help African-American turnout.  There's no other VP candidate that would be as good at preserving the Obama coalition (in addition to Hillary forming her own coalition).
Hillary could still benefit from someone on her ticket with a deep familiarity with Washington/ Domestic policy, the Democratic version of Rob Portman. She does't quite have that. In the Clinton administration, she was essentially a Senior adviser to the President. Then she spent a few years as a rock star Senator, before she started running for President herself. And now she's spent four years as the country's top diplomat.

The problem with Patrick as a likely running mate isn't one thing. It's a combination of several factors. He's not young/ fresh, won't help her in Washington, won't help her in a politically useful region/ state, and doesn't seem to be a particularly gifted politician (he was reelected with less than 50% in one of the most liberal states in the country).

He does help with the voters who preferred Obama to Hillary, and his resume is certainly adequate. But I would imagine that she would already have the support of the Obama coalition, due to her work in his administration.

So I doubt that Deval Patrick is in the top ten. This is subject to change in the next four years. Perhaps he'll come up with some truly impressive policies in his last two years in office.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2012, 11:17:56 AM »

She was a Senator for 6 years before declaring her candidacy, and ended up serving 8 years as Senator, winning two elections there. She made lots of connections and is well-respected by both sides of the aisle in the Senate.

Deval Patrick is a fresh face to the national stage, as well as someone who could help African-American turnout.

Who's in your top 10 for Hillary?
Well, I mentioned Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Charlie Crist, Julian Castro, John Hickenlooper, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Jon Tester and Gavin Newsom.

So, I only need one more.

But a ridiculously early top dozen could include...
Chris Murphy- Will be the youngest Senator.
Martin Heinrich- Young Senator-Elect from New Mexico.
Xavier Bercerra- In the 2008 primary, Hillary had some conflicts with the Democratic House leadership, so it could make sense to pick a guy they like as her running mate. He would help with dealings with Washington, as Paul Ryan was supposed to help Romney. And he's Hispanic.
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