GOP: your dreams of recapturing Virginia are just that

[Mister Mets]

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

[Mister Mets]

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

[Mister Mets]

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

2 things:

1) I don't see Republicans coming close in the national popular vote either, just like Virginia is trending democratic, so is the nation...

2) I do think the pace of change (as shown by the numbers I posted above) is accelerating.  NOVA is gaining population every year, southwest Virginia is losing population every year.  NOVA's growth is much faster than the rest of the state.  Also, NOVA's population is pushing out, despite NOVA people moving "out" of NOVA (technically) the region is gaining significant population.  The people moving "out" of NOVA are making the collar counties more democratic, so NOVA's growth doesn't even tell the whole story.  There is basically not one single trend in the Republican's favor in Virginia.

The only argument you can make (which you did) is that black turnout will go down with Obama not on the ticket... that didn't even happen in the Governor's race this year to any great degree.  Nor did the NOVA vote go down.

You still haven't explained where you think Virginia will be relative to the national popular vote. Will it be half a point more Democratic? Seven points more Democratic?

I could also understand an argument that Virginia may be fairly close to the popular vote, but that it will somehow be less elastic than other soft Obama states/ potential tipping point states.

If you think Republican dreams of recapturing the national popular vote are just that, you buried the lede by focusing on one state.

[Mister Mets]

The fact that Republicans haven't won a senate seat since Macaca-gate should tell Republican posters like the one who said "Democrats have only won Virginia twice" something...

Haven't there only been like 2 Senate elections since, both in Presidential election years? I remember Mark Warner and Obama winning in 2008 and Tim Kaine and Obama winning in 2012. And if memory serves the GOP ran joke, scandal-tainted candidates in both elections. I don't really see how throwing in the Senate helps you avoid the small sample size critique. I mean, between 2008 and 2012, the North Carolina GOP newly gained: control of the state legislature, a supermajority in the state legislature,  the governor's mansion, a majority of Congressional seats, and the electoral college votes for President. Looking at that sample size I predict North Carolina will never ever ever ever never go Democrat again, because the 4 year window I chose to look at supports this theory.

That's a fair argument. Democrats won three Senate races in favorable circumstances.

There is the counterargument that Democrats also won two of the last three gubernatorial elections.

Although several Democratic wins (including a likely win in 2014) come down to Mark Warner being uniquely gifted.

You won't have perfect correlations between statewide office and presidential runs. Maine has a Republican Governor and a Republican Senator, but is unlikely to go to the party.

There are two arguments about where we are politically, and the Virginia results fit both.

I think it's a swing state in both senses of the term. It can go towards either party, and it'll go with the winner of the popular vote. Politics is a bit like a metronome, with parties doing well and then losing support. Currently we're at a period when the Democratic party has support, so looks at recent elections will be susceptible to sample bias, just as an analysis of 1980-1988 presidential results didn't foreshadow 1992.

If Virginia and the country were steadily becoming more Democratic, the last few elections might very well turn out to be a fairly representative sample.