Guessing the tipping point of 2016

[Mister Mets]

In 2008, Obama states Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado were below the tipping point. It was Iowa's seven electoral votes that tipped the election for Obama, although there was a difference of less than a tenth of a point between Iowa and New Hampshire, so it might have been that state.

In 2012, the Obama states below the tipping point were Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Colorado became the tipping point state, benefiting from electoral gains in safe Republican states and purple states. The difference between Colorado and Pennsylvania was 1/50th of the vote. New Hampshire and Iowa were close behind.

The key question is how swapping Obama for Hillary will change things. White voters in Florida may be more amenable to Hillary, and its size gives it disproportionate significance in any tipping point calculations. It also has a larger African American population so lower turnout could hurt Democrats. And it's likelier than most states to have a Republican presidential nominee.

I'd guess likely tipping points would be Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

[Mister Mets]

The five most likely tipping point states for 2016 seem to be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia.

This is either completely intellectually dishonest or stunningly absurd, probably the latter sadly.

What's your objection here?