OR-01 special election: primary 11/8, general 1/31/12

[smoltchanov]

Grove Insight for EMILY's List push poll:

34% Suzanne Bonamici
10% Brad Witt
  8% Brad Avakian
48% Others/Undecided

When the candidates' biographies are listed, Bonamici's lead widens to 29 points, and she has the highest favorability of all the candidates.

The Democratic primary is on November 8, but ballots for the all-mail special election will go out beginning October 21.

Well, it's a push poll, and EMILY list heavily supports Bonamici, but she is still a favorite, probably. Though, i think, not so heavy favorite...

[smoltchanov]

Why do you say that? It's PVI is comparable to NY-9, and on paper should actually be a little easier to pull an upset in.

Probably - because there are no Hassidic or Orthodox Jews in OR-01...

[smoltchanov]

Well it's better than nothing at least.

Yeah, but Cornilles lost by relatively large margin in 2010 and doesn't impresses me too much. One more district where Republicans would be better with moderate candidate, but doesn't have one....))))