LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[smoltchanov]

This isn't Congressionally-related, but its still about LA local politics: State Rep. Jim Fannin, one of the few remaing Blue Dogs, jumped ship yesterday:

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Fannin will be term-limited next cycle,  he'll run for an open Senate seat in 2013.

This is quite disheatrening, IMO.

And now  - state Senator Rick Ward III too. Two of the few "really conservative" Democrats, that remained until now, so, really, not so surprising. After Ben Nevers retires in 2015 - i am not sure whom to call a "conservative Democrat" in Louisiana legislature. Danahay? Thompson? Smith? (if they don't switch as well by 2015). Few years ago there were dozens of them. It seems that modern Democratic party really became too liberal (even radical) for most of the southern whites - especially rural ones (like Fannin and Ward)

[smoltchanov]

Though Riser (R) is favored in LA-05, there's actually a decent slate of local Democrats looking into the race:

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Mayo, Gallot and Hunter are Black. Usually not "the best recommendation" for  white-majority Deep South district. Liberal? Even worse)))))

[smoltchanov]

Mayo, Gallot and Hunter are Black. Usually not "the best recommendation" for  white-majority Deep South district. Liberal? Even worse)))))

Worse, this is what Hunter said:

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Yikes...

Idiocy.... Hope he will be beaten if he runs. Badly...

[smoltchanov]

State Rep. Robert Johnson is running in CD5:

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Now this is my type of Democrat!

He needs to clear Democratic field - first. And AFTER THAT - to get crazy Republican opponent - second. In short - something similar to what happened with Alexander himself in 2002. Likely? Not especially. Possible? Yes.

[smoltchanov]

As far as i see from my "far away" - 4 (four!) Democrats decided to run in special in LA-05. With only 2 or 3 Republicans running that's insanity: in THIS district it will almost guarantee R-R run-off. Democrats needed one candidate in this race (preferably as conservative as possible) and then - hope for "bad" Republican in run-off....

[smoltchanov]

DKE has a very comprehensive journal entry on the LA-05 race.

Sure. IMHO - Riser +1 other Republican run-off is most likely. 3 Relatively serious Democrats (and 2 Blacks among them) is not the best combination for this district - Democratic vote will be rather seriously split.

[smoltchanov]

Cassidy responds to the pic of MussoLandrieu:

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"Unlike RINO Bill Cassidy, I don't back down when I compare Democrats to genocidal dictators. I'm Rob Maness and I approve this message."

Cassidy is a RINO???!! For a moment i thought he is running against Jacob Javits)))))

[smoltchanov]

I've been waiting for a Republican(s) from the state legislature to run in LA-06; I might finally get something now.

Senator Dan Claitor will have a decision next week. Claitor represents the south Baton Rouge seat that Cassidy vacated before running for Congress.  

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Senator Norby Chabert may get in by the year's end as well. He represents a seat down in the bayou. He'd carry the parts of the district from the old CD3, but may struggle with capitol area voters:

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And also...

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Bottom line: we're probably gonna get more candidates.

Please, not Tony Perkins.  A social extremist and zealot)))). Even by Louisiana standards...

[smoltchanov]

ALEC has done pretty well in NC under Tillis' tenure:

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Any Democrats among 54?

[smoltchanov]

Any Democrats among 54?

As of late 2011 there were 3 at least somewhat affiliated with it. Brisson is the only one who's still in office

AFAIK - he is the most conservative of present democratic legislators in NC. Am i correct?

[smoltchanov]

AFAIK - he is the most conservative of present democratic legislators in NC. Am i correct?

Yeah, both socially and fiscally.

Thanks! Even more then McLaurin?

[smoltchanov]

Thanks! Even more then McLaurin?

Well, as far as the House goes.

More thanks! You know i am keenly interested in "non-standard" politicians in BOTH parties. In Democratic that usually means "conservative", in Republican - "as liberal as possible"

[smoltchanov]

I knew Krazen during my stint in RRH. He is hyperpartizan even there, but not so crazy as here...

[smoltchanov]

Some names who might consider NC-07 now:

Republicans:

New Hanover Commissioner Woody White was gearing up for a run even before today.
Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick County)- His district is in the core of this CD.
Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover County)- PPP showed him to be in surprisingly bad shape and he may have a tough Senate race. This might be a good out for him.

Ilario Pantano has a job with the McCrory administration, so he might not be as inclined to run here for a third time.

Rouzer candidacy should give make other Republicans from Johnston County think twice, though.

Democrats:

Rep. Ken Waddell (Columbus County)
Sen. Michael Walters (Robeson County)
Rep. Susi Hamilton (New Hanover County)
Rep. William Brisson (Bladen County)- probably too old and I think he likes being a Blue Dog in the Assembly Dem leadership.

Bob Etheridge is from Sampson County and represented Johnston County his entire Congressional tenure...

Maybe Jason Thigpen (the candidate running for CD3 who changed from R to D) will consider switching races? He's from New Hanover County. Having a veteran run would be good in this military-heavy district.

Hat tip DKE. Thigpen apparantly helped McIntyre's campaign in 2012.

Miles, all Democrats you mention here (exception - Brisson) are rather substantially to the left of McIntyre. And that probably means that they have little or no chances.

[smoltchanov]

Well, Democrats absolutely need to win North Carolina if they are to preserve their Senate majority. Essentially - they already lost West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana, and more likely then not to lose Arkansas and (because of run-off system) Louisiana (yes, i like Mary very much, but still - ...). They simply can't afford to lose anything else...

[smoltchanov]

Miles, what's a situation in LA-05 and LA-06 after filing deadline? IMHO, with only one Democrat in LA-05 Mayo has a good chance to get into top 2. If so - who will be second? (Guerriero? Holloway? McAllister? Someone else?) In LA-06 it's probably Edwards vs ? (Claitor? Dietzel? Anyone else?)

[smoltchanov]

Thanks. Miles!

[smoltchanov]

Absolutely the same situation, that existed for moderate and even "somewhat liberal" (Chafee) Republicans during "great Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008": you could stress as much as possible your differences with national party and Bush Jr., but you were "Bush enabler" just the same. Now even relatively conservative Democrats in Romney districts and states are exactly in the same position - Landrieu is very good example of that.... Whites in many regions simply hate Obama too much... May be even irrationaly, but he is a personification of all "alien" to them.

[smoltchanov]

We already talked about that. The heaviest Landrieu fall in Louisiana was exactly in LA-03))))

[smoltchanov]

In short - whites hate Obama. At least - in Louisiana (and many other siuthern states)...

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles. It's enough to look at many parishes in South-Western and central parts of state))) Not only there, but mostly - there... Very eloquent....