Hew Hampshire in 2014 and beyond?

[smoltchanov]

Saying New Hampshire is a blue state is like saying Florida is a red state. New Hampshire may have a slight Democratic lean, but it's certainly not out of reach for a moderate Republican (or possibly a Libertarian.)

Last elections confirm: 51.5% Democratic for Senate, 52.5% Democratic for Governor, but 14-10 Republican for state Senate, and (AFAIK) 239 -161 for state House. Typical generally purple numbers..

[smoltchanov]

Brown lost because of "muh carpetbagging", not because NH is unwinnable by republicans.  Sununu, Bradley, Bass, and Innis all would have won. Maybe even Guinta. And as much as this guy (and OC) may think otherwise, Ayotte is a favorite to keep her seat, and the only one who can beat her in a non-2008 environment is Hassan, who might not even run.

I wouldn't go that far. She's a slight favorite, but considering the NHGOP is a barely functioning party, I'm skeptical that Hassan is the only one who can win.

Well, of course i live abroad now, but, AFAIK, i wouldn't call NHGOP "a barely functioning party". IMHO - it's in considerably better shape then most republican organizations in New England or Pacific states. I also don't see anyone, but Hassan, able to beat Ayotte. And not sure even that she can.

[smoltchanov]

A big thanks for detailed answer! I will agree with you on number of points (though - disagree on some, that's natural). If you don't mind - some additional questions:

1. With my thoroughly moderate views i was a big fan of few remaining moderate Republicans like Bob Odell in state Senate and Kidder, Gargasz and their like in state house (i generally like variety, not uniformity, in both parties, so, for example, in the South i am very much for Democrats, even very conservative ones). What can you say about Jerry Little, who replaced Odell (i know Odell supported him in primary, so he is, probably, not too conservative)?

2. And what about composition of Republican state House caucus (AFAIK - Democratic is, generally, solid liberal with minor exceptions like couple "free staters" elected on Democratic line)? Of course - i know about very vocal and rather big "tea-party caucus" (O'Brien and his like). But -  Republicans added 50-60 seats in 2014, most likely - in competitive moderate districts (solid Democratic and solid Republican remained that way), so is there an additions to few sane moderate Republicans that existed?

[smoltchanov]

A big thanks for detailed answer! I will agree with you on number of points (though - disagree on some, that's natural). If you don't mind - some additional questions:

1. With my thoroughly moderate views i was a big fan of few remaining moderate Republicans like Bob Odell in state Senate and Kidder, Gargasz and their like in state house (i generally like variety, not uniformity, in both parties, so, for example, in the South i am very much for Democrats, even very conservative ones). What can you say about Jerry Little, who replaced Odell (i know Odell supported him in primary, so he is, probably, not too conservative)?

2. And what about composition of Republican state House caucus (AFAIK - Democratic is, generally, solid liberal with minor exceptions like couple "free staters" elected on Democratic line)? Of course - i know about very vocal and rather big "tea-party caucus" (O'Brien and his like). But -  Republicans added 50-60 seats in 2014, most likely - in competitive moderate districts (solid Democratic and solid Republican remained that way), so is there an additions to few sane moderate Republicans that existed?

1. Yeah, sounds about right. He's pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, but leans more economically conservative (pro-RTW). He's not as moderate as Odell, but still not that bad.

2. I haven't paid much attention, to be honest. I've only been in NH for a few weeks of the new session.

More thanks! Then the only remaining question - is it possible (if you know) to get information about ideological composition i need? I know that present speaker Jasper is rather pragmatic "moderate conservative" who beat O'Brien with Democratic help. Probably sometime an organization like House Republican Alliance will publish their scorecard (they are ultraconservative, so - more or less ideologically "pure"), but it's unlikely to be before June - July.

Again - lot of thanks and no more questions for now)))

[smoltchanov]

New Hampshire will probably swing Republican in 2016 if the right candidate gets the nomination, Ayotte will win the senate, but Hassan will win the governorship again, even though she's only polling as high as she is due to the  incumbent advantage. New Hampshire only seems like a liberal state because, on the national and state wide levels, we have popular incumbents who are largely democrats. But on the lower levels, we have a Republican controlled legislature and executive council (both of which Hassan blames for everything), and  polling shows the largest self identified ideology as "Independent" followed by "Moderate Conservative".  In recent national polls, some GOP candidates are leading Clinton, and those that aren't are close behind in most cases, for example Ted Cruz is down only 1%, while he was down 12% at this time last year.     

My feeling is that New Hampshire is moderate conservative on economy and moderate liberal on social issues. So - a lot depends on who is "a face" of Republican party: it it will be people like former speaker O'Brien - Democrats will get rather solid majorities relatively soon. If - like pragmatic moderate conservative Jasper (as it's now) - Republicans can hold narrow advantage for some time..