Democrats Face a Grim Future -National Journal

[smoltchanov]

but muh demographics

Demographics, most likely, will really help Democrats. But it's an extremely slow process - it will take 2-3 dozens of years for it's effects to be fully politically felt. Even for those. who are 18 today, it's a very long time. For those (like myself), who are somewhat over 50, that may be whole remaining life... At the same time Democratic collapse among whites (and not only in South, but in many ethnic AND/OR workingclass AND/ON small town/rural areas like Western Pennsylvania, SE Ohio, most of Indiana, Southern Illinois, parts of Missouri and so on) gives very big tactical advantages to Repblicans. Strategically these people may be "dying off" and Democrats (i repeat) may be in better position, but tactically, IMHO - not so.

[smoltchanov]

Strickland wasn't Dems only hope in Ohio there's Tim Ryan and Richard Cordray who would've been great candidates and in WI Ron Kind, Mary Burke, and Chris Abele. Kathy Castor and Patrick Murphy as well in Florida, I think Dems have some great candidates for 2016.

Some - yes. But, most likely, for 50/50 Senate only. And then comes 2018, which will be VERY bad for Democrats in Senate under almost all scenarios.

[smoltchanov]

RealClearPolitics analysts Sean Trende and David Byler.

Why? I think Trende is pretty good.

Look at TexasGurl political Matrix numbers)))

[smoltchanov]

I agree..the future looks bleak for the Dems...if the dems win the WH in 2016,I see a bloodbath in 2018

I think a Republican wins in 2016, but, if not, I could see the Republicans in the mid-60s in the Senate after the midterms (maybe a veto-proof majority?).

No. Wishful thinking.

[smoltchanov]

If Democrats won all the seats between D+6 and R+2 held by Republicans, they would have a House Majority, so it isn't impossible.

But - difficult. As i said in another thread - Republicans have their share of talents and Democrats - their share of bad candidates... So, essentially, it would require a strong Democratic wave...

[smoltchanov]

Republicans are going to win Senate seats in 2018 under almost every imaginable scenario (2012 was extremely good for Democrats in this aspect). House - another matter...