Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[smoltchanov]

Conway 50.9%
Bevin 47.1%
Curtis 4.0%

102% total?

[smoltchanov]

Another KY Democratic State Representative switches to the GOP. Democrats down to 50-46 in the chamber. If one more occurs the GOP has the chance to take the chamber in the special elections.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/12/28/state-rep-jim-gooch-switches-gop/77975148/

A lot of the Democrats are saying, "Good riddance." Gooch is a climate change denier.

May be. But without conservative Democrats like him these "progressives" doom their party to be in dire minority in Legislature in coming decades. We will see in Kentucky what we saw recently in West Virginia (and earlier - in Deep South+Arkanas+ Oklahoma+ ....)...

[smoltchanov]

These party swappers are dumb as hell. They need to become independents and make their alliegence up to the highest bidder - that's the way to get maximum pork for their districts.

That could work, but only until next election. It's difficult to be elected as Indie, so one would have to choose then...

[smoltchanov]

A parting message from the outgoing Auditor (and one-time Senate hopeful) Adam Edelen to the Kentucky Democratic Party:

Get used to being in the minority.  

Or words to that effect.

The Democrats need to run on a progressive platform.

In THAT case they will SURELY be in minority. And - for a very LONG time... Republicans will not even have to sweat - Democrats will do their work for them...

[smoltchanov]

Is Tennessee the future of the Kentucky Democratic Party? 

In short - yes. But i expect slightly better numbers in Kentucky then in Tennessee. Somewhere about 29-9 in Senate and 65-35 - in House (both - Republican, of course) 10 years from now.

[smoltchanov]

A parting message from the outgoing Auditor (and one-time Senate hopeful) Adam Edelen to the Kentucky Democratic Party:

Get used to being in the minority.  

Or words to that effect.

The Democrats need to run on a progressive platform.

In THAT case they will SURELY be in minority. And - for a very LONG time...

Who knows. The last 2 Democratic Senators from Idaho were solid liberals. Like the kind that Vermont liberals would be happy with.

Remind me a name of Democratic Senator from Idaho since 1980. And chances for next such Senator... If you agree to wait THAT long - fine, but i am over 50, and simply don't have so much time..

[smoltchanov]

How come none of these places in the South except Louisiana have a John Bel Edwards-style candidate who can win in a landslide?

Not like he was that liberal, but he's still much more liberal than the Tea Party.

For that you need two things:

1. Rather solid social conservative (pro-gun, pro-life and so on, like JBE himself) as Democratic candidate

2. David Vitter or equally saddled with numerous problems Republican candidate

How frequently such situation will happen? I think JBE case may remain a unique for a long time, and he himself may have problems against "more normal" Republican candidate in 2019. And, BTW, because of mass exodus of white Democratic state legislators in Louisiana in 2019 (term limits) Republicans may get a supermajority in legislature then too...

[smoltchanov]

Why would a party get more popular as it gets more extreme, especially in a state known for electing moderates 50 years ago?

That's exactly the question i would like to ask a Kentucky Democrats. Successfull Democratic politicains from this state were usually loyal, but politically distinct (usually - of moderate type) from national leadership, which becomes more and more liberal (up to extreme in some cases) with every passing year. Why would Kentucky Democrats be more popular in their state by imitating that??

[smoltchanov]

2. David Vitter or equally saddled with numerous problems Republican candidate

Also, almost every major Republican in the South is just as bad as Vitter or Jindal. I'd say the average person in some of these other states is less conservative than in Louisiana, so you'd think the GOP would be easier to beat elsewhere.

The Kentucky GOP is beatable if their scandals are exposed. The Republican executive of a Republican county was defeated by 3-to-1 in 2014 because of a scandal.

The problem with Vitter wasn't his conservatism (Louisiana is a VERY conservative state, especially on social issues), but enormous personal scandals, which were deftly exploited by JBE, Against non-scandalous (but still generally conservative) Republican like Angelle or Dardenne he would have almost zero chances. Richard Shelby is very popular in Alabama, and Trent Lott was popular in Mississippi, despite being very conservative. And i can name dozens and dozens other names of very conservative politicians with extremely successfull career for decades representing South. South is a generally conservative region, but it doesn't like an unappealing scandals and it's perpetrators...

[smoltchanov]

Also, these conservative politicians are much more conservative than the average person in their state. The average Kentuckian supports Medicaid expansion and a higher minimum wage, and opposes "right-to-work." Matt Bevin is against Kentuckians on all these issues.

But how many states have major politicians who are more liberal than the average person?

Substantial number. A lot of people in Maine are conservative, but I can't remember a really conservative Seanator from Maine (even Republican, and no, Collins is NOT a conservative) for a long time.... Even in Massachusetts and Vermont there are lot of conservatives, but no conservative Senator or Governor (even Romney was forced to masquerade as moderate to get elected) for decades...

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, Dardenne would have beaten Edwards 60-40. Angelle vs. Edwards would have been close, Angelle was scandal-free but portrayed himself as MORE conservative than Vitter (!) during the jungle. Maybe 52-48 Angelle or thereabouts.

I would say - more loyal to Jindal. And yes - i agree with him being narrow favorite against JBE.

[smoltchanov]

A parting message from the outgoing Auditor (and one-time Senate hopeful) Adam Edelen to the Kentucky Democratic Party:

Get used to being in the minority.  

Or words to that effect.

The Democrats need to run on a progressive platform.

In THAT case they will SURELY be in minority. And - for a very LONG time...

Who knows. The last 2 Democratic Senators from Idaho were solid liberals. Like the kind that Vermont liberals would be happy with.

Remind me a name of Democratic Senator from Idaho since 1980. And chances for next such Senator... If you agree to wait THAT long - fine, but i am over 50, and simply don't have so much time..

 

That sounds like a you problem.

No. I am living abroad. Most likely - never to return. So - it's your problem instead...