Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016

[smoltchanov]

Most likely it will go following way:

1. "United Russia" - unquestionably biggest party in Duma, though, possibly, with slightly lesser number of seats (and may be  - not even that)

2-3 Communist party & LDPR with similar number of seats (Communists have bigger and stronger infrastructure and, at least, sometimes, vote against ruling party, but Zhirinovski has much bigger personal charisma then Zyuganov)

4 (may be) "Fair Russia", which hovers about 5% mark.

That's all, folks. It's less then a month until election day, and campaign is barely visible even in Moscow. Most people are apathetic and resigned to continuos "United Russia" rule. "Administrative resource" (ability of powers that be to influence election results in a way favorable to them (not neccessary direct vote fraud, BTW)) is still strong. So - don't expect many surprises))))

[smoltchanov]

^ Agreed. When i said that "United Russia" will be a winner - that simply meant that out of 450 members of Duma abput 300 will belong to its caucus. No less, but no more...

P.S. Russia was (despite some peculiar features) electoral democracy in the 90th, when lot of parties participated, and, as inexperienced (sometimes - clumsy) they were - there was real choice between candidates. But - not now. May be - 10-12 years later... When Putin and his buddies will be gone - situation will change rather quickly (more quickly then in 1950th, after Stalin's death), and present system will be replaced with something new, though it's difficult to say now - what it will be.

[smoltchanov]

Are the commies an actual opposition party or are they controlled by the Kremlin as well?

Something in between... Mostly - controlled by means of numerous government distributed perks, but at least - not so corrupt as LDPR and slightly more critical (from the "communist left", of course) of government then "Fair Russia"

[smoltchanov]

So how is the communist party nowadays? what kind of platform are they "running on"?

What is the stance of the different parties towards the Ukraine crisis and Russian expansion?

1. Standard unreconstructed platform of former KPSU: for "developed socialism with communist perspective". No real transformation to socialist or social-democratic party (as was even in Eastern Europe), though begrudgingly recognizes private property now... Less internationalist and substantially more nationalist then KPSU though...

2. All for parties, represented in present Duma, are anti-Ukranian (at least - anti-post Maidan-Ukranian) and, mostly, anti-West in general. Correspondingly - all are absolutely "for" Rusian expansion: the more - the better...

[smoltchanov]

^ Absolutely agree on BOTH points. But i spoke about parties, which have good chances to be represented in the next Duma. Yabloko may elect 1 or 2 in some districts (the electoral system is mixed in Russia this year: half will be elected by parties, half - by districts), but - that's all...

[smoltchanov]

B R E A K I N G N E W S

United Russia won! [see photos]

No one has doubts about that from the beginning. But next election to Duma (in 2020) will be more interesting. Time is needed....

[smoltchanov]

Didn't win yet, just leading in vote count. It wasn't entirely unexpected for liberal opposition to win a seat or two in some places where they have a strong candidate and vote rigging is small. 3 years ago Yabloko-backed independent won mayoral elections in Petrozavodsk.

Update: United Russia 198, KPRF 7, A Just Russia 5, LDPR 5, Civic Platform 1, Growth Party 1, Yabloko 1, independent 1; another 5 districts didn't report any results yet.

Also United Russia result is 52 % now and will probably continue to grow.

So the only thing that actually surprised me is turnout, I expected it to be lower, but not that low.

And "United Russia" could win even some more: about half of districts, which went for other parties didn't have "United Russia" candidates at all. It's victories in district elections are easily explainable - usually there are 6-10 candidates in every district. "United Russia" almost always can count on 30-35% vote minimum (usually - even more), In 10-candidates race (and, mostly, even in 6-candidate) that's more then enough for victory..

[smoltchanov]

Were the "Communists of Russia" a Kremlin-backed puppet to siphon off votes from the KPRF (yes, the KPRF is also Kremlin-backed, but maybe Putin wanted to ensure his margin of victory was comfortable)?

I think so.

And some general observations:

After 93% of vote in "United Russia" has 54.28% of vote and 343  seats in Duma (out of 450), so it's a constitutional majority Communists have 42 seats, LDPR (Zhirinovski) - 39, "Just Russia" - 23. Other - 3 (all in districts, where "United Russia" didn't run candidates, in fact - if it ran candidates in ALL 225-single-member districts it would win about 218-220 of them, because even in worst districts (St. Petersburg, Moscow) it's candidates can reliably count on 25-35% of vote, which is almost always enough for victory). "Yabloko" and other democratic parties failed to win even a single seat in Duma, though they were close in some Moscow and St. Petersburg districts, and would win them, wouldn't "democratic vote" be split between "Yabloko", Greens, "Party of growth" and PARNAS. In fact - Russia's democrats must remember a simple truth: for foreseable future - no more then 1 candidate in one district!!! Otherwise situation will be like "top 2" in California, where in some districts 10 Democratic candidates split vote so badly that 2 Republicans go to November. If possible - democrats must try to make an informal agreement even ewith Communists (in makes no sense to try to talk with LDPR) about common candidates in some districts - Communists are not satisfied with results either... The win is by plurality in Russia elections, and plurality may be achieved only in this way....

There are many more details, but they are of interests only to people of Russia. In short - Russia is a very big country, a serious player on world's political arena, but - with extremely strong "Empire tradition", absolute scarcity of Democratic experience, and very underdeveloped ("thirld world-type") politics... It was different in 1985-1995, when "power" itself encouraged difference of opinions and views under Gorbachev, but - not now...

[smoltchanov]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

[smoltchanov]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

By 2024 either the Shah dies, or the ass.

And we shall see - who. Inertia among russian people is enormous - after "stormy" 90th they (mostly) went into hibernation again. Time will be needed to awaken them.....

[smoltchanov]

   Isn't there a term called "false aerodromes (or airfields)" in which the Kremlin sets up fake parties to siphon off votes from real opposition parties? This could be the case with the Communist Party of Russia.

It is far beyond that. Mainline Russian communists have been a fake opposition for a long time themselves. Well, they just decided to humiliate them slightly. Pretty much every political organization allowed into this race had been infiltrated and/or agreed to play within the role given to it by the Kremlin. Some of them hoped to get something in exchange - well, none of them, really, did. This was no election whatsoever. Talking of anything specifically being "false" here is like talking about something being "false" in a Ponzi scheme - it is redundant.

+100. The very "core rules", under which "elections" are held in Russia are false. And there is a rule in mathematical logic: "you can deduce anything from false statement". Which is absolutely applicable here. In 90th (however "stormy" they were) there was something like "free elections" in Russia. Not fully ("administrative resource" existed even then), but - mostly. After "vertical of power" was announced somewhere in 2003, after tragic events in Beslan - no more...

[smoltchanov]

So besides United Russia, KPRF, LDPR, and Fair Russia, Motherland and Civic Platform also won a seat each. Motherland is a new party led by a former member of United Russia. It shares the same name as the largest party that merged with others to become Fair Russia. One can assume it has a similar left-wing nationalist ideology as Fair Russia and was created to confuse their voters. Civic Platform was the party founded by New York Nets owner and conservative liberal presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov. He is no longer a member. It is now a right-wing nationalist party led by a former member of the LDPR. Presumably maintained by the Kremlin to split LDPR and/or liberal votes.

Yes on both points. And - pay attention to the fact that both districts were "cleared" for candidates you mentioned (no candidates from "United Russia", who could win on party label, and so on...)

[smoltchanov]

Will Putin go full on North Korean and require the three other parties to join a United Front with UR, and then present voters with a single candidate list?

No. As authocratic as Russia is now - in no case...

[smoltchanov]

Will Putin go full on North Korean and require the three other parties to join a United Front with UR, and then present voters with a single candidate list?

Nah. No need to. More trouble than it is worth.

And, BTW, this would not be North Korea. This is good old Soviet Russia. There were no "other parties" there. There was just the strong and united "Bloc of the Communists and non-party members".

+100. Russia economics and interests are much more internationally-dependent and connected for that too (even then in Brezhnev's time, and MUCH more then in Stalin's). So, we have "normal authocratic" regime here (not far different, for example, from Orban's Hungary in many political aspects).

[smoltchanov]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

Why did they even bother putting in term limits when they amended the presidential term? Whom was this meant to appease?

To prevent obvious comparisons with monarchy, which was so typical for Russia most of the time. In addition - Constitution was ratified in much more liberal 90th)))

[smoltchanov]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

Why did they even bother putting in term limits when they amended the presidential term? Whom was this meant to appease?

To prevent obvious comparisons with monarchy, which was so typical for Russia most of the time. In addition - Constitution was ratified in much more liberal 90th)))

I'm talking about after 2012, when the term was extended from 4 years to five years.

They decided that they needed a "semblance" of Democratic rule. And could point a finger on France (2 7-years terms AFAIK)

[smoltchanov]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

Why did they even bother putting in term limits when they amended the presidential term? Whom was this meant to appease?

To prevent obvious comparisons with monarchy, which was so typical for Russia most of the time. In addition - Constitution was ratified in much more liberal 90th)))

I'm talking about after 2012, when the term was extended from 4 years to five years.

They decided that they needed a "semblance" of Democratic rule. And could point a finger on France (2 7-years terms AFAIK)

France has 5 year terms since 2000, implemented first in 2002.

Thanks! But it had 7-years terms before for relatively long time. So, Russian leaders could say "why not here???"