MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread

[smoltchanov]

Gianforte 49%
Quist 47%
Wicks 4%

Almost exactly as my...

[smoltchanov]

Greg Gianforte is a crooked New Jersey Millionah who wants to sell Montana lands, put up a creationist museum in Montana, and make regular Montanans pay for it! My advice - maybe Crooked Greg should mind his own business and go back to New Jersey.

Sounds great!

Well, he (Gianforte) is unlikely to be elected in New Jersey for almost any post above dogcatcher, so - it's really great!

[smoltchanov]

Why did the predictions thread turn into a flame war

When there are too much "activists", and too few analytics- that's inevitable... "Activists" recognize and accept only numbers they like....

[smoltchanov]

Somewhat changing my earlier prediction: Gianforte by 7-10%

[smoltchanov]

I would like to err, but, IMHO, it's too late to have serious impact (would it be 3=4 days before election - another matter). But it can reduce Gianforte margin. Again - would like to err, but his 3-4% victory seems to be most likely Very well known because of previous race, enough money plus general leaning of the stae and Quist problems. An "ideal" Democratic candidate must be like Bullock or Tester. Quist is different.