The South

[Ben.]

Kerry could very well beat Bush and yet not win a single Southern state… Bush could add Iowa and New Mexico to his column and so long as Kerry takes Ohio and New Hampshire he wins…the south isn’t going to be a competitive region for some time to come with Dole who was a westerner or even with Reagan (had we Dems had a decent candidate in 84..hell Carter carried GA against him in 76) who was from California there might have been a shot (and with Dole there certainly was) however Bush is a Republican politician shaped very much by the south and as a result he’s very likely to appeal most to southerners….the only southern state that is really in play is FL, while at a stretch (and I strongly doubt Kerry could win any of these) Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee are all long shots but winnable with the right candidate…but back to the original post yes Kerry can win without the south and I think he may well…having said that its essential for the south to be contested because of senate and congressional races, Landrieu and Fletcher proved that by taking on Bush on policies they as moderates disagreed with they could win convincingly in the conservative South which is encouraging if not so much at the presidential level

[Ben.]

Because in it's Presidential voting patterns it is about as monolithic as it gets.  No non southern Democratic nominee has carried a single state from the old confederacy since 64.  Kerry won't either.  Too liberal.

Johnson was from the south...if you count Texas as a southern state rather than an automatons region unto its self …

Yeah your right Gustaff it wasn’t that important but I was trying to prove a point… I mean look at 1992 when two southerners (Well whether Bush 41 was a southerner is a matter for conjecture) faced off agasit one another the Democrat Clinton won…however there you had Perot but hen again Perot did not run very strong in the south…when it comes to Bush the man is very keen to accentuate is southerness which can also be seen to play well more generally as “folksy”… I think the reason the south can be considered such a lock for the republicans at the presidential level is to a large extent based on style and personality….it is Bush’s southerness and it was also Clinton’s southerness that allowed both to do very well in the region however Bush was working from a party heartland while in both 92 and 96 Clinton was not…

[Ben.]

Democrats have to fight for the south if only to boost the chances of the senate candidates there…and those chances with Dean gone seem to have dramatically improved….however concentrating on the states you mention does not offer the same rewards as working on those southern states which are conceivably within our grasp (GA, LA, FL, VA, AK and TN)… over time people from the Midwest (where manufacturing will begin to wane as a source of employment) will begin to move in large numbers to the south west and the south east coast making states such as NC, GA, SC, FL and VA highly competive while the depopulated Midwest will trend much more towards the GOP as they become much more rural and similar in many ways to Kentucky and Indiana with the possible exception of Illinois and perhaps Wisconsin both of which seem to have diversified much more successfully and rapidly than any of their neighbours…          

[Ben.]

I recon that by the time states such as GA, VA, FL, NC and SC have trended to be leaning Dem states (say around 2020 or 2024?) states such as MN, IA and WI will be leaning towards the GOP in a similar way to how Kentucky and Indiana do today while states such as IL, PA and MI will remain competive because of the large urban population who will lean towards the Dems…the west I would see as being competitive rather than leaning towards the Dems and the GOP wont just let its self become irrelevant and will move with the times in reality social and moral issues will reach some kind of moderate consensus within both party’s that neither liberals or conservatives will be totally satisfied with but they will not be inclined to break with the DNC or the RNC (respectively) in truth I would expect economic issues to once again be the main dividing line in US politics…