Piara Khabra dies

[Ben.]

Cant say that I knew much about the guy beyond his reputation as a fairly decent old boy with the emphasis being on old (quite a transformation from his earlier persona as a pretty ruthless political operator) ... as Al says a shame but not a surprise.

First off this should be a Labour hold, a largely Asian seat which is predominantly Sikh and Hindu rather than Muslim, a strong party machine in place and a decent base in local government (it’ll be interesting to see if the All-Women short list that was in place is still retained for the selection of the candidate for the by-election ).

However, it wont be a completely straightforward contest… Labour got a hammering in Ealing in last year’s local elections with the Tories making significant gains, Al’s wrong to assume any Tory candidate will automatically be the white male archetype (wouldn’t be be surprised to see Syed Kamall MEP look into it), not that I’d be surprised to see a white Tory candidate (potentially a sensible electoral ploy) but I think its far from a “sure-thing” as unlike Bromley this is likely to be a contest that the Conservative leadership could have considerable influence over (no entrenched and established local party with a tradition of returning MPs). 

Despite the Tories strong showing in the last round of local elections it’s the LibDems who were second in the seat in 2005 and they are of course the ‘past-masters’ when it comes to by-elections so to a certain extent the local results don’t necessarily provide a good indicator when it comes to a parliamentary by-election (the same was true in Bromley) .

Beyond the three main parties, the seat has the potential to produce a strong independent showing (something that might become more likely should the AWSL still be in place for the by-election). Of the minor parties only Respect could run a candidate with a chance of retaining their deposit , though the relatively small Muslim community probably limits their scope for securing a respectable (lol! – I’ll get my coat) result… though their participation could provide Labour and perhaps the LibDems with an extra headache.

So overall it’s a contest that Labour should start with a pronounced advantage in (and that’s before you consider the possible effect of any “Brown honey moon”), the LibDems (as always) seem the likely challengers, but the Tories should treat the seat seriously and look for a credible showing (but it’s a by-election so it’ll be very tough for the Tories to say the least).   

[Ben.]

Parachuting in some token Asian Tory (for that is what it would look like, even if it would be unfair to think so) wouldn't really make much sense for the Tories electorally. The last thing they want is for their white vote to collapse and head LibDemward (for the LibDems will presumably run their last counciller in the constituency; white and from the far east of the seat), what with the boundary changes coming next election (the best Tory, and best LibDem, parts of the seat are returing to Tory-target Acton...).

To a certain extent i think its as long as its broad, in all likelihood this will be another by-election where the strength of the LibDem by-election machine  will over come their local weakness and mount a competitive challenge...

But if the Tories want to mount a serious challenge (and based on the local elections they really should be able to... but i wont hold my breath) I'd probably agree they should resist the temptation to select an Asian candidate, don't necessarily agree that it has to be a local candidate (I mean Teather was a Cllr in Islington when she ran in Brent East) though... a candidate from North West London, yes but doesn't have to be a local cllr IMHO.

I'd also not be surprised if the LibDems looked to select an Asian candidate, which would mean a candidate from outside of the area, certainly the leadership could find themselves under pressure to select that sort of candidate... especially with so few genuinely "local" candidates (though I'm sure they'll be "local" by the time Reynard has drafted his first "focus" newsletter ).   

[Ben.]

Hmmm... Tories have selected an Asian candidate, not a massive surprise but a bit of a risk IMHO, Tony Lit (Managing Director of Sunrise Radio) - son of the candidate who challenged Khabra as an independent in 2001, his father certainly had some personal support, but it didn't translate into him comming anywhere close to beating Khabra, then again that was a general election and he was running as an independent... so in short an interesting choice.       

[Ben.]

That and the Respect candidate could be just what the LibDems didnt want to hear, I'd still give the LibDems a decent shot at mounting an effective challenge in the by-election... but i do wonder if the approch that was so effective in Brent East, Leicester South and Hodge Hill will really be as useful in the present climate in this by-election, as i say this could get rather interesting