Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Andrea]

Council chamber in Liguria will be fun...

Lega 5
Forza Italia 3
Fratelli d'Italia 1
Bonus for the winning candidate 6

PD 7 (plus Paita)

5 Stelle 6

Rete a Sinistra (Pastorino's fans) 1

[Andrea]

Run offs today...

Pd (and anti-Renzi Casson, now 2 times mayoral reject) Venice. They are losing also Fermo, Nuoro and Matera.
They gained Trani and Mantova and held Lecco. They should hold also Macerata.

Lega hold Rovigo and centre right is holding Chieti.

Head to head in Arezzo...1 polling place left and PD behind (after the dig at Casson, I should not that here they are fielding a 30something Renzi's and Boschi's fan)

5 stars ahead in Venaria Reale and somewhere near Naples.

[Andrea]

Exit polls


Rome

Raggi (5 Stars) 34-38%
Giochetti (PD) 20-24
Meloni (Right) 16-20
Marchino (Forza Italia) 9-13
Fassina (Left) 3-6

Milan

Sala (PD) 41-45
Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39
5 Stars 8-12

Turin

Fassino (PD) 39-42
5 Stars 28-32
Right 7-11

Naples

De Magistris 43-47
Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24
Valente (PD) 15-19

[Andrea]

Rome projection (13% of the sample)
5 Stars 36.5 PD 21.8 Right 21.5 Forza Italia 10.8

Bologna projection (5% of the sample)
PD 40 Forza Italia 20 5 starts 19.8 Left 9.1

Turin (9% of the sample):
Fassino PD 41,8% Appendino 5 Stars 31,7% Morano 9,8% Napoli 4,8% Airaudo 4%

Milan projection (20% of the sample): PD 42.6 Forza Italia/Lega 37.2 5 Stars 12.8 Left 3.8

Ravenna (6.5%): PD 42.3 Right 28.3


Varese (5%): Right 46.2 PD 42.9

Naples (16%) Magistris 40,7% Lettieri FI 24,7% Valente PD 20,7% Brambilla 5 Stars 10,8%

[Andrea]

So results...


Novara (88 polling stations reported out of 91): Lega & friends 32.9% PD 28.44% 5 Stars 16.9% Forza Italia 14.1%

Torino (898/919): PD 41.87% 5 Stars 30.84% Lega 8.4% Forza Italia 5.3% Centrist 5.07%

Milan ( 1.227/ 1.248 ): PD 41.69% Lega/FI 40.79% 5 Stars 10.05% Left 3.55%

Varese (71/85): Lega/FI 47.55 PD 41.47

Savona (59/61): PD 31.96% Lega 26.4% 5 Stars 25.21% Local list 8.35% Left 4.77%

Bologna (440/445): PD 39.49% Lega/FI 22.25% 5 Stars 16.62%

Ravenna: PD 46.5% Lega/FI 27.97%

Rimini: PD 56.99% Lega/FI 24.96% Centre-Left hold

Grosseto (70/76):  Lega/FI 39.63 PD 34.53 5 Stars 19.67

Latina (66/116): Right 22.99 Local lists 22.23 PD 21.07 Forza Italia 14.2

Roma (2.384   / 2.600): 5 Stars 35.37 PD 24.77 Right 20.69 Forza Italia 10.91 Left 4.41

Benevento (37/72): Forza Italia 33 PD 32.98 5 Stars 21.22

Naples (759/ 886): De Magistris 42.45 Forza Italia 24.04 PD 21.34 5 Stars 9.74

Salerno (89/152): Centre-Left 70.76

Brindisi (50/80): PD 32.54 Centrist 24.72 5 Stars 18.65 Left 14.38 Forza Italia 7.1

Cosenza (61/82): Forza Italia & 100 local lists 59.18 PD 19.52

Crotone (47/ 73): PD 29.77 Centrist 26.83 5 Stars 17.82

Cagliari (146/176): PD 50.88 Forza Italia 32.14 5 Stars 9.2

[Andrea]

So results so far...


Novara (88 polling stations reported out of 91): Lega & friends 32.9% PD 28.44% 5 Stars 16.9% Forza Italia 14.1%

Torino (898/919): PD 41.87% 5 Stars 30.84% Lega 8.4% Forza Italia 5.3% Centrist 5.07%

Milan ( 1.227/ 1.248 ): PD 41.69% Lega/FI 40.79% 5 Stars 10.05% Left 3.55%

Varese (71/85): Lega/FI 47.55 PD 41.47

Savona (59/61): PD 31.96% Lega 26.4% 5 Stars 25.21% Local list 8.35% Left 4.77%

Bologna (440/445): PD 39.49% Lega/FI 22.25% 5 Stars 16.62%

Ravenna: PD 46.5% Lega/FI 27.97%

Rimini: PD 56.99% Lega/FI 24.96% Centre-Left hold

Grosseto (70/76): Lega/FI 39.63 PD 34.53 5 Stars 19.67

Latina (66/116): Right 22.99 Local lists 22.23 PD 21.07 Forza Italia 14.2

Roma (2.384   / 2.600): 5 Stars 35.37 PD 24.77 Right 20.69 Forza Italia 10.91 Left 4.41

Benevento (37/72): Forza Italia 33 PD 32.98 5 Stars 21.22

Naples (759/ 886): De Magistris 42.45 Forza Italia 24.04 PD 21.34 5 Stars 9.74

Salerno (89/152): Centre-Left 70.76

Caserta (63/91): PD 43 Forza Italia 20.1

Brindisi (50/80): PD 32.54 Centrist 24.72 5 Stars 18.65 Left 14.38 Forza Italia 7.1

Cosenza (61/82): Forza Italia & 100 local lists 59.18 PD 19.52

Crotone (47/ 73): PD 29.77 Centrist 26.83 5 Stars 17.82

Cagliari (146/176): PD 50.88 Forza Italia 32.14 5 Stars 9.2

Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/7189/italian-local-elections#ixzz4Amh5q7y1

[Andrea]

Quote Edit  like  Post Options
Post by andrea on 14 minutes ago
All polling places in.

Cagliari, Cosenza and Salerno are confirmed as first round wins along with Rimini.

The centre-right candidate in the Benevento run off is the infamous Mastella...who was switching coalitions every 2 minutes in the Berlusconi-Prodi years.

Trieste: FI/Lega 40.8 PD 29.22 5S 19.16
Pordenone: FI/Lega 45.5 PD 33.2 5S 12.4

[Andrea]

Exit polls for run offs in mayoral elections in Italy

Rome: 5 Stars 64-68% PD 32-36%

Milan: PD 49-53% Right 47-51%

Turin: 5 Stars 50-54% PD 46-50%

Bologna: PD 54-58% Right 42-46%

Naples: De Magistris 61-65 Right 35-39

[Andrea]

The picture is very fragmented. In many towns the candidate leading doesn't reach the 40%.
I think run offs will be very open and unpredictable in many places

Out of the provinces head towns, only Cuneo (PD) and Frosinone (centre-right) elected the mayor on the first round.

Maybe Palermo too as they have a different electoral law (the first round winner only requires 40% to avoid the run off). Orlando is projected over it but the count is so slow. Barely half of polling stations reported after 10 hours!

Tosi's wife goes to second round in Verona with Lega official candidate.

Forza Italia/Lega leading PD in Genova 38/39% to 33/34%.

[Andrea]

Genova is going to FI/Lega. So far (2/3 counted) it's 55-45%, not even close

Pizzarotti confirmed comfortably in Parma. With 162 /207 polling stations counted he's at 57.9%

PD is losing almost everything at moment.
They are ahead in Lucca and Padova. Behind in Pistoia, La Spazia, Piacenza, etc

[Andrea]

Looks like an Independent candidate is ahead in Parma

He's the incumbent mayor, last time he was elected for the 5 Stars. He had some fallouts with Grillo during these 5 years.

[Andrea]

Lecce is providing a WTF result given the first round and the national picture.

FI/Lega gain Pistoia


PD lose Piacenza to FI/Lega

PD hold gain  Padova

[Andrea]

It does seem that the center-left did pick up Verona from the center-right

centre-left didn't reach second round in Verona.

FI-Lega-FdI candidate wins over Tosi's wife/girlfriend (Tosi is the former Verona Lega Nord mayor)


Centre-left hold Taranto

Centre-right takes L'Aquila, Como, Monza, La Spezia, Asti, Alessandria.

[Andrea]

PD survive in Lucca: 50.5 to 49.5%

[Andrea]

It does seem that the center-left did pick up Verona from the center-right

centre-left didn't reach second round in Verona.

FI-Lega-FdI candidate wins over Tosi's wife/girlfriend (Tosi is the former Verona Lega Nord mayor)

Oh.  I misread the results.  My fault. BTW, it seems that M5S did not do that well in the first round.  Is M5S weaker in these cities or are M5S just weaker in these local races and stronger in national races.

No problem.

I would say M5S is generally weaker in local elections because they have few credible local candidates with a strong base on the territory

[Andrea]

Rai had exit polls for Lombardia and Lazio regional elections

Lombardia: Fontana (CR) 38-42%. Gori (CL) at 31-35%
Lazio was close. Zingaretti (CL) 30-34%, Parisi (CR) 26-30%, Lombardi (M5S) 25-29% IIRC

[Andrea]

Second projection for La7 (40% of the sampled polling stations) for Senate

5 Stars 33.6

PD 18.3

Lega 17.4

Forza Italia 14.1

Brothers of Italy 4.0

Free and Equal 3.3

+Europa 2.3

[Andrea]

Rai and Mediaset first projections  (low coverage, 5-7%)

PD a bit better but still below 20% (Mediaset's projection have them above it)

Lega a bit worse but still above FI

[Andrea]

PD and allies hold up decently in the city of Milan given how bad they performed elsewhere. They are carrying 3 out of 6 FPTP constituencies at the House (Tobacci, Quartapelle and Mor) and 1 out of 3 Senate races (Tommaso Cerno elected).

PD hold 2 out of 5 FPTP seats in Turin at the House and 1 out of 2 at the Senate.

Minniti has lost his FPTP race in Pesaro. Franceschini has lost in Ferrara.

Padoan has won in Siena by 4%.
Casini elected in Bologna.
Bonino and Madia are leading in their Roman races.

At the Senate PD has lost Modena, Ferrara, Rimini.
They have survived in Ravenna. Reggio and Modena are too close to call.

At the House, they won Scandiano by a small margin. They seem to be ahead in Reggio. Lorenzin looks safe in Modena. They have won the 4 Bologna seats. They should hold Ravenna, Imola and Forlì.  They lost everything else in Emilia Romagna.


In Tuscany, PD held Florence and Sesto Fiorentino. Nencini held Arezzo-Siena constituency by the skin of his teeth. They lost Prato and they are behind in Livorno (gap looks too big to be overturned with few polling stations left to report) and Pisa (still close).
Same story at the House. They win Florence, Sesto Fiorentino and Empoli. Padoan in Siena. Held Livorno. Lost everything else

PD lost every FPTP seat in Marche and Umbria

[Andrea]

How many votes are already counted?

56928 out of 61401 polling stations at the House

57708 out of  61401 polling stations at the House

[Andrea]

Campania and Sicilia finished. 20 additional seats, all M5S.

Centre-right 26
Lega 9
Forza Italia 10
FdI 5
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 35

Centre-left 5
PD 2
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

The big ones left are

TOSCANA and EMILIA-ROMAGNA: most likely evenly split between Center-Right and Center-Left
LAZIO: Mostly Center-Right
LOMBARDIA:  Most likely near Center-Right (really Lega) sweep

Center-left won one of the Milan constituencies at Senate. Rest of the region is all Center-Right.

Toscana is 4 FPTP seats for Center-Right and 3 Center-Left
Emilia Romagna is 4 Center-right and 4 Center-Left
Lazio is likely 6 Center Right, 3 5 Stars, 1 for Emma Bonino

[Andrea]

lazio 2 M5S 1 +Europa, 6 cdx, 1 toss up

I thought there are 2 tossups (3rd (center-right ahead) and 4th (M5S ahead))

3rd has only one polling station left to report though. Oveturning a 600+ votes gap with only one precint is quite a task

[Andrea]

On the Ministry website, they now list the proportional seats assigned to each list at the Senate. You have to click on the region and then on the sub-areas.

Nevermind, they have disappeared now

[Andrea]

Interior Ministry has finally assigned the Italians Abroad's seats even if they have not updated the final votes tally.

Anyway, at the House it is

Europe: 2 PD, 1 Lega/Forza Italia, 1 5 Stars, 1 +Europa

North America: 1 PD, 1 Forza Italia/Lega

South America: 1 MAEI, 1 USAI, 1 PD, 1 Forza Italia/Lega

Africa, Asia and Oceania: 1 PD

Senate:

Europe: 1 PD, 1 Lega/Forza Italia

North America: 1 Forza Italia/Lega

South America: 1 MAIE, 1 USEI

Africa, Asia and Oceania: 1 PD

[Andrea]

Friuli Venezia Giulia regional elections held yesterday

Centre-right 57.1% (Lega 34.9, FI 12.1)
PD and allies 26.8%
5 Stars 11,7%
a local list 4.4%

Turnout: 49.7%

At House elections last month:

Centre-right 43% (Lega 25.9 FI 10.7)
5 Stars 24.6%
PD and allies 23%
Free and Equals 3.2%

turnout 75.12%