Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

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And here it is:

LIB 39.1 CON 30.5 NDP 19.7

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/article26866499.ece/BINARY/2015-702+Election+Nightly+Ballot+Tracking+Sept+16+to+18.pdf

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Have a lot of NDP voters switched to LIB for tactical purposes?

Yes!! Yes!! Yes!!

In general, the NDP ran a campaign as if they were already in government, running for re-election, and had a wide lead in the polls. They then moved to the centre to try to win a majority. This allowed the Liberals to campaign on their left.

In any case, the polls had shown for years that Liberal and NDP supporters are open to supporting the other party. And this is Canada, where political tribalism is nowhere as deep as in the US or Britain.

Then, Harper's Muslim-bashing caused a sizeable bump in his support by galvanizing his base. Unfortunately for him it also galvanized his opponents into supporting the only party capable of beating him. In the final weeks, the NDP's clearly desperate tactics (like claiming they only need 35 more seats to defeat Harper ) only furthered this stampede.

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Any chance the Libs look so safe now that some voters may go back to the NDP?

Nope.

Most people won't know about these latest polls. They'll simply know the Liberals have momentum to defeat the Conservatives.

A bigger question is, how many seats do the Conservatives keep, especially in BC outside Vancouver, because the Liberal surge turned many Con/NDP races into Conservative leads.

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Shameless self-plug: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_FQSY2OpZE

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BC and Quebec will prevent that.

Outside the Maritimes, less than 20 of the seats they can reasonably win are outside the seven largest cities. So, more accurately, the Liberal Party is only the big cities party.