Can a Republican ever win California again?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

In the general? Tough luck. Republicans would need to nominate a candidate that is at least socially liberal to compete. The only reason Cali took so long to swap to the Democrats is because it had two native sons (Nixon and Reagan) that held it in the GOP column for a long time. A moderate Republican running for reelection would probably carry Cali in a blowout. Hard to see it swap otherwise.

Statewide Republicans could compete, but their bench is thin and the Cali GOP futilely hugs the far right. I think Whitman actually had a credible shot at the governorship, but the maid scandal and her refusal to stop running negative ads sunk her. It's funny, rejecting the moratorium on negative ads hit her two fold: Brown's were a LOT better than hers, and that act of rejection just didn't sit well with the voters. If the state GOP moves to the left on some social issues and took a more pragmatic economic approach, they'd be a lot more competitive.

It is an uphill fight though. Davis prevailed by 5% in 2002 despite the Green Party taking in 5% of the vote and abysmal approvals. The Democratic tilt is deep.