US House Redistricting: New York

[traininthedistance]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

Any deal where the Dems take the hit for both seats is a rotten one and I wouldn't accept it.  Both parties losing one is the only fair way to do it.

If I'm negotiating for the Dems, I offer to redraw LI to shore up Israel and King, and honestly that might be all I'd do.  Maybe swap Ithaca for Rochester suburbs to boost Slaughter and Reed as well.  Hochul I am willing to write off, as long as Buerkle's seat gets no redder than it is right now.

That dog won't hunt at all.  It isn't Christmas, with Santa giving presents just to Dems. So if that is the Dem position (which is such a non starter that I doubt that it is if they are serious about dealing), we just go with the court map with which the Pubs are quite happy about on balance, and the Dems less happy.

Well in that case I will just take the court map, and insist that the court draws the State Senate map, too.  With *equal population*, none of this systematic 10-percent deviance, which I'm sure the Republicans will be just thrilled about.

Then, if I'm feeling like playing hardball, raise the possibility of mid-decade redistricting after the inevitable happens.

[traininthedistance]

I have a bias for competitive seats I admit. Other than Turner, I like the map because Buerkle faired unexpectedly well, and I like the way Long Island turned out. I really don't think King is in danger, and I think Israel and McCarthy might be. I don't think any of the other Pubs are in real danger, except in a bad election year, and Hochul is out.  I think Slaughter might be vulnerable as well, but the Pubs shouldn't spend too much money on it, because to hold the seat will be a chore absent some quite talented Pub representing it, and hey, I don't want to move to Rochester!  

Anyway, if you two guys are representing the Dems, and I the Pubs, the negotiation would be very short, before we just wrap it up, and shake hands, and go have a beer. The court map will be the map.

As to the interim post above, if the Dems were really interested in the court drawing the legislative seats (no the court won't just draw the Senate seats, while the Pubs vote for the assembly Dem gerrymander), then the parties would not have already essentially cut a deal on that, with both now negotiating against Cuomo. The parties seem to view the Congressional seats, and legislative seats, as on two separate tracks. The Dems in short, are not holding the Senate map up as hostage for getting something they like better in a Congressional map. I understand how in the abstract that is a very good plan, but the problem is that it inconveniences too many Dem incumbents short term, and we can't have that.

As I said, NY politicians of both parties tend to be self interested hacks, more than is normal for the political species.

Of course the Assembly map would have to be court-drawn as well, NY politicians being self-interested hacks means it probably won't happen even if it's the right thing to do.

The court map is full of competitive seats, and that's definitely why the both of us are broadly okay with it.  It was more favorable to the Republicans than I'd prefer, sure, but the only really egregious thing is the placement of Ithaca.  (I'd prefer Niagara Falls in Hochul's district, even if it's a lost cause anyway, and more of Saratoga in Owens, but those are small potatoes).  I also suspect you're a bit too optimistic about McCarthy (she's not in any real danger) and Gibson (he is).

[traininthedistance]

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-gary-ackerman-to-retire/

Longtime New York Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman will retire at the end of the 112th Congress, he announced tonight.



Crowley elbowed Ackerman out.

http://www.cityandstateny.com/lancman-mix-crowley-ny-6/

Crowley is running in the 14th, not the 6th.

[traininthedistance]

Pity you guys picked up on the Orthodox Jewish submission. I was going to put up a poll, with all the usual suspects listed, from myself to BRTD to Muon2 to Sbane to NY Jew to Lewis to Brittain33 and so on, and ask who do you think would like the map best. But now the answer has been given away.

Here is their entire map.

Wow, that Staten Island-Ozone Park district is really something else.