RedC for the Business Post:
SF 27 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (+2)
FG 20 (+1)
FF 14 (-2)
SD 6 (-)
Aontú 4 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
Lab 3 (-)
SWP/SP 2 (-1)
The International Protection cluster**** seems to be helping the Independent/RON surge to the point where they're now ahead of both government parties (I am skeptical that FF are *quite* as low as this - panel polls traditionally underestimate them - but it's not a good look).
Getting below 17.5 percent (2011's result) would be pretty devastating for FF, wouldn't it? Especially since they seem to be the Irish version of a "natural party of government" a la the Canadian Liberals
Every FF leader ever has served as Taoiseach at some point.