A Fairer Iranian Options Thread

[Jake]

Containment, with economic sanctions meant to cripple its economy, is the only rational course to take. Air strikes suffer from a multitude of problems, including basing, targeting, and recon of the targets, which make them unfeasible and a ground invasion is impossible for lack of troops and terrain issues. And contrary to what many think, sitting around hoping for the best is not going to solve any problem, just look at the border and/or North Korea.

[Jake]

1. US attacks.

2. A few Exocets from hideouts in the Zagros Mtns. will take out a couple of tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, trapping the US carrier group in the Persian gulf.

First, if the Iranians target tankers, you can be damn sure the US Carrier Group to defend the tankers, in which case the attacks will be largely ineffective.

3. Here come the Sunburn ASMs, along with even more Exocets, again from the Zagros Mtns raining down on the Carrier group. US dead will number in the thousands, and the ships will be sunk.

Again, this presumes the US does not fight back. Surface to Surface missiles have never been proven against a naval target, nor have air launched weapons.

4. Surface to Surface missles will come across the Gulf, raining down on refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, crippling oil production indefinitely.

This presumes, again, that the US will be impotent against Iranian attack. Strongly unlikely.

5. Iraqi Shiite forces will begin coordinated hits on US forces, who due to the hits on the naval forces, will be cut from their supply line.

6. The Iranian Army, mobilized and numbering upwards to 15 million men (CIA World Factbook) pours across the border with Iraq, vastly outnumbering US 130K troops.

15 million? Effectives or including the twice yearly militias? Iran doesn't have the supply capacity to mobilize and support 15 million, or anywhere near that many troops. This also strongly ups the ante, and increases the likelyhood that the US would use tactical nukes to wipe out the Iranian units massing across the border.

Where did you get this nonsense BTW? Even you couldn't be so dense.

[Jake]

Figures