If Rand Paul runs for prez in 2016, how well does he do in GOP primaries?

[Cliff Racer]

In a field like 2011? Yeah, he'd do decently well, especially if we factor out his father's run. But in a normal field he'd find himself without a real base of support. There are more talented outsiders, there are more talented fiscal conservatives, there are more talented Tea Party members, etc. I just don't see him getting much breathing room beyond fans of his father when there are other competent candidates in the ring.