Carter v Ford Today (user search)
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  Carter v Ford Today (search mode)
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Author Topic: Carter v Ford Today  (Read 4142 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: April 30, 2015, 05:21:34 PM »

Not much different from Bush-Gore 2000 except, of the Bush states, Carter would hold GA, TN, AR, FL, KY, WV and perhaps LA; the other southern states have become too Republican. Of the Gore states, Ford would hold only VT with help from Ralph Nader. Easy win for Carter. Looking deeper, Carter would be palatable to single issue pro-life voters who today vote reflexively GOP, and would still appeal to pro-choice liberals who would see him as inclined to follow the pro choice Dem party on the issue.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2016, 10:08:49 PM »

This is an average of the 1976 and 2016 results, which is an imperfect proxy for a Carter v. Ford race, but still works as a proxy:



Yes, Trump's 2016 WV win was larger than Carter's 1976 win there. Conversely, though, Carter did in fact win AR in 1976 by more than Trump did in 2016 (in fact, in 1976, Arkansas was the second most Democratic state in the country after Georgia).

EDIT: I did not take Maine or Nebraska CD's into account; data from that era clearly suggests that the results would've been Ford/Trump carrying all 3 Nebraska CD's, and the state, while 1 Maine CD votes for the Republican even as the other CD, and the state, go Democratic. (Yes, Hillary's margin in ME-statewide was greater than Ford's, surprisingly enough). The electoral college tally for the map depicted above, under 2010 apportionment, is 310-228 Carter-Ford; the "actual" number is 309-229, since 1 ME CD is still won by Ford.
Switch AR and CO and this looks like a possible 2024 map, with a moderate Rep vs. a populist, competent Dem.
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