Ukraine Crisis

[Cory]

Where are Russian troops stationed right now?

Crimea? Unless you are asking more specifically.

[Cory]

Some interesting details from Foundations of Geopolitics, the founding document of modern Eurasianism and a major influence on Russian foreign policy circles. Bolded key parts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Military operations play relatively little role. The textbook believes in a sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services. The operations should be assisted by a tough, hard-headed utilization of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resources to bully and pressure other countries.[1] The book states that "the maximum task [of the future] is the 'Finlandization’ of all of Europe".[1]

In Europe:

    -Germany should be offered the de facto political dominance over most Protestant and Catholic states located within Central and Eastern Europe. Kaliningrad oblast could be given back to Germany. The book uses the term a "Moscow-Berlin axis".[1]
    -France should be encouraged to form a "Franco-German bloc" with Germany. Both countries have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".[1]
    -United Kingdom should be cut off from Europe.[1]
    -Finland should be absorbed into Russia. Southern Finland will be combined with the Republic of Karelia and northern Finland will be "donated to Murmansk Oblast".[1]
    -Estonia should be given to Germany's sphere of influence.[1]
    -Latvia and Lithuania should be given a "special status" in the Eurasian-Russian sphere.[1]
    -Poland should be granted a "special status" in the Eurasian sphere.[1]
    -Romania, Macedonia, "Serbian Bosnia" and Greece - "orthodox collectivist East" - will unite with the "Moscow the Third Rome" and reject the "rational-individualistic West".[1]
    -Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is sanitary cordon, which would be inadmissible.[1]

In the Middle East and Central Asia:

    -The book stresses the "continental Russian-Islamic alliance" which lies "at the foundation of anti-Atlanticist strategy". The alliance is based on the "traditional character of Russian and Islamic civilization".
    -Iran is a key ally. The book uses the term "Moscow-Tehran axis".[1]
    -Armenia has a special role and will serve as a "strategic base" and it is necessary to create "the [subsidiary] axis Moscow-Erevan-Teheran". Armenians "are an Aryan people ... [like] the Iranians and the Kurds".[1]
    -Azerbaijan could be "split up" or given to Iran.[1]
    -Georgia should be dismembered. Abkhazia and "United Ossetia" (which includes Georgia's South Ossetia) will be incorporated into Russia. Georgia's independent policies are unacceptable.[1]
    -Russia needs to create "geopolitical shocks" within Turkey. These can be achieved by employing Kurds, Armenians and other minorities.[1]
    -The book regards the Caucasus as a Russian territory, including "the eastern and northern shores of the Caspian (the territories of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan)" and Central Asia (mentioning Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghistan and Tajikistan).[1]

In Asia:

    -China, which represents a danger to Russia, "must, to the maximum degree possible, be dismantled".[2] Russia should offer China help "in a southern direction – Indochina (except Vietnam), the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia".[1]
    -Russia should manipulate Japanese politics by offering the Kuril Islands to Japan and provoking anti-Americanism.[1]
    -Mongolia should be absorbed into Eurasia-Russia.[1]

The book emphasizes that Russia must spread Anti-Americanism everywhere: "the main ‘scapegoat’ will be precisely the U.S."

In the United States:

    -Russia should use its special forces within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism. For instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics."[1]

Obviously not all of it is being enacted (that we know of) but it's clear the general direction of Russian foreign policy is being heavily influenced by this philosophy.

[Cory]

Also, what does everyone think of the idea of American forces setting up a "tripwire" in the case of a larger Russian invasion of the Ukraine? The idea is we would insert a line (or "wire") of paratroopers along the Dnieper. The idea is that we will be allowing Russia to take the Eastern half of Ukraine but making it to where if Russia wants to go further they have to attack American soldiers, thus automatically triggering a war.

Don't get me wrong they could break through this "wire" easily but by doing so they would be declaring war on NATO. The idea is the Russians will accept the gift (Eastern Ukraine & Crimea) and know better then to escalate.

That and I think the Administration could bypass Congress with this kind of maneuver. If the Russians attack it will trigger the War Powers Act. I highly doubt that Congress has the audacity to play funding games to prevent this.

[Cory]

That is a horrible idea that will blow up things to an unnecessary level. If Russia wants to play games with ethnic separatism, I saw we should hit back. I’m sure the people of Chechnya agree….(and yes, I know they are Islamists).

No it isn't. Things like this are why the Russians don't take Western leadership seriously.

If the Russians outright invaded Ukraine proper and NATO literally did nothing (substantial) to stop them then it will be hard for anyone to take the West seriously form now on. It will be made clear that the West simply doesn't have the basic strength of character to face down a major power.

The Russians will not attack the tripwire. They will accept the gift.

[Cory]

And to think the Russians have the Gaul to call the Ukrainians "fascists".

[Cory]

Yanukovich: Hold more Crimes-style referendums in Ukraine.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/3/28/obama-russia-couldhaveadditionalplansforukraine.html

Ukraine’s exiled President Viktor Yanukovich on Friday pushed for a vote to let each of the country's regions determine its own status — a call serving Moscow’s desire to turn Ukraine into a loosely knit federation.

The statement from Yanukovich – a longtime Moscow ally who fled to Russia in February after three months of anti-government protests forced him out – raised the threat of more unrest in Ukraine's Russian-speaking eastern provinces, where many resent the new, West-leaning Ukrainian government.

"As a president who is with you with all my thoughts and soul, I urge every sensible citizen of Ukraine: Don't give in to impostors! Demand a referendum on the status of each region within Ukraine," Yanukovich said in an address to the people of Ukraine.

Yanukovich made the remarks on the same day that U.S. President Barack Obama and his advisors warned that Russia may have “additional plans” for Ukraine, saying a Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border was out of the ordinary. Russian forces took over Ukraine’s Crimea region weeks ago, and Crimeans – many of them ethnic Russians – subsequently voted in a referendum to become part of the Russian Federation. 

Obama also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone Friday, urging the Russian leader to work out a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, according to a White House statement.

On Friday Obama was wrapping up a visit to Europe, where the United States, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Japan and Canada warned Russia that it would face additional sanctions if it takes further action to destabilize Ukraine — and especially if Russian troops move into the eastern part of the country.

"You've seen a range of troops massing along that border under the guise of military exercises," Obama told CBS in an interview in Vatican City. "But these are not what Russia would normally be doing."

[Cory]

Soviet Union needed 9 years of full concentration - with the experienced army, coming straight out of WWII. You underestimate both Ukraine and Ukrainians. But it was awfully bloody and cruel the last time - on both sides. God forbid it happens again.

The Soviets by no means had to "fully concentrate" against the minor Ukrainian insurgency after WWII. You are dramatically overstating the effectiveness and scale of the Ukrainian insurgency. They were never a real threat to the Soviet State, they were a pest.

You're acting like the Ukrainian insurgency after WWII was some kind of major war.

[Cory]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.

[Cory]

Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

The fact that Russia owns Kaliningrad is kind of ridiculous really. Everybody knows it's really part of East Prussia, which should never have been given to Poland to begin with.

[Cory]

Without hindsight, Obama was certainly right at the time and I'm still wondering how Romney arrived at the conclusion that Russia is America's "geopolitical foe no. 1". If anything, you had to name China from a 2012 perspective.

Because their alliance with Iran and Loyalist Syria? The invasion of Georgia to teach the West a lesson about who's sphere of influence is who's?

[Cory]

I agreed with Romney at the time and didn't get why do many people didn't. Don't get me wrong Islamic Extremism was the most direct and actively lethal threat but in the grand scheme of things Russia was clearly the main "enemy". Our foreign policy interests directly conflict in a number of areas. Russia wants to be a major superpower again and doing so involves redrawing the world order and with America being the status quo power this fundamentally will bring us into conflict and tension.

[Cory]

Putin Recalls State Duma From Vacation, "Planning Something" On Ukraine Situation

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Recognition?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/putin-recalls-state-duma-vacation-planning-something-ukraine-situation

Why aren't any mainstream new sources picking this up? I see nothing on Al-Jazeera, France24, CNN, or even RT.

[Cory]

One interview-like question-

Where does Putin see Russia in 2024? What does he want the map to look like?

I am probably partially wrong in my analysis, but I would assume that Putin would like to see Russia absorb all of Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia and Poland over the next decade or so.

I don't think the Russians could ever annex/clientize Poland without a major war. Replace Estonia and Poland with Belarus and Kazakhstan (The Kazakhs being puppetized, not annexed).

[Cory]

It's a little unnerving how effective the Kremlin's propaganda has been in swaying the opinions of impressionable young Americans.

This. It's incredibly annoying to see the Internet Libertarians League and some elements of the radical left come to the defense of Putin's Imperial ambitions.

[Cory]

I'd say it's a knee jerk reaction made out of pure opposition to the Western powers more than anything based in logic and reality. I suspect it might the same here.

Yeah, it's kind of "geo-political hipsterdom".  They support just about any regime as long as it is "anti-Western".

[Cory]

Murica!'s posts are a perfect example of what we're talking about. The utter delusion and outright refusal to have any kind of objectivity. Literally taking everything Russia says as gospel and denying any information to the contrary.

It's like the people in the 1930's who insisted that Germany had the right to claim the Sudetenland and that the Czechs were "oppressing Germans".

I can hear him now:

"Hitler and Germany are just trying to save their people from the yoke of Anglo-French Imperialism!"

"The Czechs are massacring Germans! I'm not arguing anymore because I know what's going on!"

[Cory]

It's time to start actually confronting Russia not just on this, but in total. Our long-term objective needs to be the destruction of the Putin regime and Ultra-Nationalism in Russia outright. The problem with 1991 was that there was no "De-Sovietization". Just internal political collapse and the establishment of Wiemar Russia. It was like 1918 all over again. And now we see the (predictable) outcome.

It's time for a new Fulton speech. We need to recognize that there is a global Russian threat that intends to undermine the current world order in favor of their Eurasianist agenda. This threat has military, economic, social, and political dimensions to it. Everything from Gazprom, the Russian mafia, and RT news network. If not publicly then internally we need to accept that these entities and those like them are enemy agencies in the new Cold War, and treat them as such.

We need to accept that the Putin regime is a neo-fascist state that is inherently a threat to the pace, freedom and stability of the entire world. Including it's own citizens. The struggle is upon us, and the free nations of the world need to unite and answer the call.

[Cory]

Russia is a great power with enough nuclear weapons to leave USA as smoldering glass covered wasteland. Yes it would be nice if we could treat it as a defeated enemy or some Middle Eastern or third world sh**thole. We can't and we should accept that and look into how we need to deal with Russia (like remobilise).

I never said we should initiate a shooting war with Russia. Containment followed by RollBack should be the policy. But my main point was hat we should treat this as the threat it actually is.

The Soviet Union had a powerful nuclear arsenal too, but that didn't stop us from doing what it took to win.

[Cory]

Do you really want a Kaliningrad Airlift?

Yes, I do. It costs money. And the money spent on Kaliningrad Airlift is not spent elsewhere.

Perfect. Exactly the mentality I think we should exercise in regards to Russia.