Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

The only good thing for the NDP is that Toronto Centre becomes winnable.

Scarborough should never have been divided like that. Isn't there like a zoo and woods separating the two parts of Scarborough East? Ridiculous. Reminds me of Calgary McCall being divided by the airport.

[Hatman 🍁]

I am liking the new Nipissing riding. They have added some area from Parry Sound-Muskoka where my cottage is, which makes a lot of sense because that area has more in common with North Bay than the rest of PSM. I wouldn't even suggest a name change since much of the area bounds Lake Nipissing except for South River...

Further south, I would suggest renaming the Barrie ridings to Barrie-Innisfil and Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte. Or perhaps the shorter name of Kempenfelt?

Anyways, there's a lot of naming issues I have with this proposal. They went the opposite way of Quebec. Quebec thought too hard about changing things, while Ontario didn't think at all. Simcoe--Grey and Nepean--Carleton need to have their name changed (and will for sure). Nepean isn't in NC and the new Simcoe-Grey doesnt contain any of Grey. NC should be re-named Rideau-Carleton (or Ottawa-Carleton, Carleton or Carleton South). SG should be renamed Simcoe-Dufferin or Simcoe-Mulmur or Simcoe West-Mulmur/Dufferin.

[Hatman 🍁]

NO - the new Nickel Belt-Temiskaming becomes more competitive for the tories i suspect, infact you would have two incumbents running...

I doubt it...the Tory MP for Nipissing-Timiskaming who won by just 18 votes would obviously run in the new riding of Nipissing which is now much more solidly Tory, rather than run against an NDP incumbent from Nickel Belt.

Correct. Remember, the Timiskaming area is fairly NDP (look at it provincially). The new area added to Nipissing (where my cottage is) is very Tory. It is very very WASPy. Probably one of the most Protestant parts of the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

I agree than "Barrie North" is a strange name. The problem with Kempenfelt is than it could describe both Barrie North and Barrie South.

I guess you're right. Barrie North-Simcoe then?

[Hatman 🍁]

It would be nice for my Grandma in North Bay to get an NDP MP.  She always votes NDP, I think. Of course, that's probably not going to happen in her life time. (She's 88)

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

I agree than "Barrie North" is a strange name. The problem with Kempenfelt is than it could describe both Barrie North and Barrie South.

I guess you're right. Barrie North-Simcoe then?

Shortest would be "Barrie-Oro."

Leaves out a number of places. Simcoe West-Mulmur works for the other one you mentioned though.

[Hatman 🍁]

For my money, the most egrigious misnaming is the proposed "Oak Ridges"--yes, it encompasses a lot of the Oak Ridges Moraine; however, IMO any riding with that name has to include the community which lent its name to said moraine.  That is, a better name for Aurora-Richmond Hill would be Aurora-Oak Ridges; and this present "Oak Ridges" should be named King-Maple, or King-Maple-Vellore, or something...

I'm sorry, but nothing tops the Nepean-Carleton and the Simcoe-Grey ridings for wrong names. Oak Ridges refers to not just the community, but the morraine. While Nepean only refers to the former city which is not in the proposed riding and Grey refers to just the county which the riding will not contain any part of.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, and clearly the riding should be named "Wonderland"

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Im not defending the name. I'd call it Maple-King-Kleinberg or something.

[Hatman 🍁]

Awful presumptious of you to call people like me 'normal'

[Hatman 🍁]

This site shows the new 2008 and 2011  results based on the proposed ridings: http://fed2012.pollmaps.ca/

Someone's going to have to make a map!

[Hatman 🍁]

I will have to make a map. St. Paul's doesn't look right, but I guess it takes in a lot from Trinity-Spadina. Didn't realize Vancouver Granville would be so winnable!

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP would be +2 in Toronto, and +1 in Peel which is awesome.

[Hatman 🍁]

And will Bennett flee St. Paul's and run in Mt Pleasant? Will Rae retire?

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh. Teddy is on rabble. Neat. (been a while since I've gone there).

Well then, Carolyn Bennett is likely toast it seems. But maybe there are people in Trinity-Spadina that like her enough to vote for her even though they voted for Chow. But, with the NDP polling better, it's going to be tough for Bennett to win.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't be surprised if David Miller ran as a star candidate for the NDP in St. Paul's.

I would be very surprised.

[Hatman 🍁]

Has no one yet produced the transposition list of proposed new ridings showing the number of voters transposed from each old riding? So you can see which riding is successor to which, and which are the "new" ridiings?

Eligible voters, I'm not sure, but the transposition of 2011 votes is at the link Earl gave above.

Eligible voters is what I want. Someone must have done it?

I guess you'll just have to do the math for the time being.

[Hatman 🍁]

The funny thing is some of those ridings already exist with those names. But, Nepean is clearly the successor to Nepean--Carleton (not N-C, which will be renamed anyways). Markham is the successor to Markham--Unionville. Brampton West was almost an even split between Brampton West and South and Milton is the successor to Halton.

[Hatman 🍁]

There seems to be a lot of opposition to the new map in Eastern Ontario.  From what I understand it's basically an abandonment of the "county model" that prevailed since Confederation and instead linking towns along the St. Lawrence and separating them from rural areas, along an east-west axis.

There is no change to ridings lining the St. Lawrence. Do you mean Lake Ontario?

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 results mapped using the new boundaries: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/proposed-riding-boundaries-map-coloured.html

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont mean to toot my own horn, but it's being mentioned on redditt: http://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/zr3pc/proposed_riding_boundaries_map_coloured_in_by/

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 results mapped using the new boundaries: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/proposed-riding-boundaries-map-coloured.html

Ontario NDP marginals under proposed boundaries:
Sault Ste. Marie 4.21% Con
Scarborough Centre 4.27% Con (Lib 2nd)
Welland—Fort Erie 4.38% Con
Essex 12.65% Con
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib 9.12% (Con 2nd)
Ottawa—Vanier Lib 9.4%

Who have I missed?

Scarborough East  Lib 3.79% (Con 2nd)
Ancaster Con 14.85%- I assume 15% is your cut off?
London North Centre Con 12.29% (Lib 2nd)

[Hatman 🍁]

Regarding Welland - its worth noting that the reason why the proposed new riding of Welland is "notionally" Tory is that it absorbs the town of Fort Erie from the safe Tory seat of Niagara Falls. Its true that Fort Erie went CPC by a wide margin in May 2011 when it was part of Niagara Falls, but just 5 months later in the provincial election, the ONDP made a much bigger effort in the provincial riding of Niagara Falls and while they lost in what was a relatively close 3-way race - the NDP actually carried the town of Fort Erie and got a significantly higher % of the vote there than they had in the federal election. I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

Well, current polls suggest the NDP would the riding anyways based on a uniform swing, so we shouldn't be too worried.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, the NDP still wouldn't have won any Saskatchewan seats (bad omen, for sure). Interesting to see they would have picked up 2 seats in Nova Scotia. Certainly good news going into a bad election year for the party in that province.