Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

I've just looked it up, the French part of Lakeshore is the eastern part of the municipality, specifically the former townships of Tilbury West and Rochester and the community of Belle River. All three areas report having more than 10% of the inhabitants having French as their first language.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just looking it up again, all of the eastern half (east of the west branch of the canal) of Welland except one CT has 10%+ Francophones. One CT in the west also is in this boat.

[Hatman 🍁]

What, no Ecole Catholique King-Edward?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my alternate proposal for Newfoundland (with Labrador = 0.5 ridings instead of 1): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/12/newfoundland-and-labrador-alternate.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Of note: If Labrador was abolished, there would be no change in partisan control. Just a switch. The new Labrador-St. Barbe-Baie Verte seat would go Liberal while Avalon would go Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Better news, not perfect though. Perhaps the NB borders will be ruled illegal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps the NB borders will be ruled illegal.

They are now +13.95%, +12.23%, +9.33%, +8.84%, +5.62%, +5.61%, –7.91%, –9.94%, –16.74%, and –21.00%. What might be illegal?

Oh, so there must have been a big enough shift. Wasn't the Miramichi district above 25% before?

[Hatman 🍁]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

As it is, the map looks pretty ugly, but it is better than their initial proposal. I just had a look at their deliberations this morning, and they did indeed make an effort to bring Miramichi under the 25% variance, because they came to the realization that there was in fact nothing special about the riding that would result in it having a population below the 25% variance.

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

As it is, the map looks pretty ugly, but it is better than their initial proposal. I just had a look at their deliberations this morning, and they did indeed make an effort to bring Miramichi under the 25% variance, because they came to the realization that there was in fact nothing special about the riding that would result in it having a population below the 25% variance.

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

New Brunswick is complicated to redistrict because of language. It's the only bilingual province, so there is French and English areas. And the French minority isn't afraid to sue to make its rights respected (see the 2005 special redistricting), so the commission must proceed with caution.

And yet when the commission in 2003 tried to lump some French areas in Tobique-Mactaquac into Madawaska-Restigouche, there is was a lot of opposition. Someone asked the commission to do it this time, and they said no based on the same reasons (apparently there is harmony between the linguistic groups there, and they are all a bunch of potato farmers).

For interests sake, here is a linguistic map of the province: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/89-642-x/2011005/map-carte/map-carte12-eng.gif (you can see the franco area in the NW crossing into Victoria County)

[Hatman 🍁]

Which would explain the real reason they would want to be in a Conservative riding like Tobique-Mactaquac over a swing riding like Madawaska-Restigouche.

[Hatman 🍁]

Problem is, I think there is a low ceiling on NDP votes in the north end of Burnaby. It might not be winnable in a straight NDP-Tory race.

[Hatman 🍁]

I hope so. They can't be much worse than one of the judges in Saskatchewan. He actually filed a DISSENTING report contrary to the other two judges. Word is he wasn't a very nice guy in the meetings, but the other judges were. The man must be a Tory; apparently he was the President of the Association of Rural Municipalities.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, Scott Simms wants to change Bay d’Espoir—Central—Notre Dame in Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame.

Probably a better name, but still not perfect.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's up!

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario:

Over all a better map. I like that they've went with the name I liked for the new Ottawa riding: Rideau-Carleton. However the situation in Toronto is much less NDP friendly now that they have gone with a riding for the lakefront condos and put Rosedale in with some NDP territory. Also, I haven't checked the numbers, but it looks like the Ottawa ridings aren't very close in terms on population. I suspect Rideau-Carleton is underpopulated.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec: Much better map, although anything is an improvement over their initial proposal. And they ditched the stupid ridings names (after people) in favour of geographical names. Also, they minimized their dumb historical names too, except for a few cases.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

If you read the report, they mainly focused on putting communities together, as participants didn't care about the equalization and the population numbers.

They also accused Carol Hugues and Charlie Angus of having an innapropriate behaviour during the process.

I saw that...

I should've took part, as someone needed to stand up for population equality!

We will be moving to Ottawa South in a month, and our votes are going to be worth 2/3 of a vote of someone in Stittsville or Riverside South

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

If you read the report, they mainly focused on putting communities together, as participants didn't care about the equalization and the population numbers.

They also accused Carol Hugues and Charlie Angus of having an innapropriate behaviour during the process.

I saw that...

I should've took part, as someone needed to stand up for population equality!

We will be moving to Ottawa South in a month, and our votes are going to be worth 2/3 of a vote of someone in Stittsville or Riverside South

And only 25% of a vote of someone in Charlottetown!

Touche, but knowing the kind of people that live in sububan/exurban Ottawa, I feel worse about them having more voting power than me.

[Hatman 🍁]

Isn't Olivia running for mayor?

[Hatman 🍁]

Was it your call to name the riding Northumberland-Pine Ridge? It's a cute name. I'm not so sure about "Bay of Quinte" though. Just "Quinte" would have been fine, or the more boring "Prince Edward--Hastings"

[Hatman 🍁]

I just read your comments on Facebook. Interesting that the area used to be called Newcastle District.

[Hatman 🍁]

I seem to recall Clarke has historically been separated from the rest of Clarington in terms of what riding it's been in. I think it first joined in the 1980s. So while it may all be one municipality now, there is an historical basis to splitting it off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yup, the proposal made more sense (except dividing the Church-Wellesley neighbourhood) to me too.

But, for Olivia remember she wanted (i believe so) a Harbourfront communities focused riding. she fought to have the areas north of Bloor street (annex neighbourhood) kept as one community.
She's played it cool not committing to running for mayor; like i said she'd win pretty safely Spadina-Fort York and i think she'd even eek out a win in University-Rosedale. It combined the NDP heavy polls around the University with the Liberal polls of Rosedale, with no Bob Rae and with Olivia's high profile i think she'd win.
I suspect these ridings will change at the next boundary commission anyway, since the DT/waterfront area is one of the fastest growing neighbourhoods. They expect 50,000 or more to be in the core within 10 years.

In other words, be careful what you wish for: you just might get it!

Like the NDP pushing for rurban ridings in Saskatchewan last redistribution.

It was 2 redistributions ago, actually. Last time though we didn't realize how bad it would be.