Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Even if all the left wing and centrist parties merged in Alberta, it would be nowhere near close enough to even form official opposition.

A lot of progressives backed (and still back) the PCs, to stop Wildrose. I think one of our posters here, njall is one such example.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is what seperates the NDP and the Liberals worse than what seperates Tony Blair and Tony Benn? Bill Clinton and Dennis Kucinich? No. They could be one damn party.

Yes, in a sense. The Liberals are a corporatist party. No way the rank and file NDPers would tolerate becoming a corporatist party.  Dennis Kucinich doesn't seem to have that problem.

Would Bernie Sanders become a Democrat? No.

[Hatman 🍁]

Aside from the political and cultural differences, who's to say we have it wrong in Canada, whereas the US has it right? I would love it if the US had its own social democratic party.

But, I have to go back to my earlier point. The Liberals and Tories have a lot more in common than the Liberals and NDP. Look no further than the Toronto mayoral election. Liberals in Toronto had the choice between a conservative (John Tory) and a New Democrat (Olivia Chow) and overwhelmingly backed Tory.  A lot of that was to stop Ford, but remember, Chow had been leading at one point.

Similarly, we saw in the federal election, a lot of Liberals switching to the Conservatives to stop the NDP.

In a lot urban centres there are a lot of people who switch between the NDP and Liberals, but they pale in comparison between the Liberal-Conservative swing voters in the more populous suburbs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't forget the Ontario Liberals were to the right of the Tories in the 1970s and early 80s.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals aren't progressives though, they're centrists. When Progressives vote Liberal, they're suggesting they're OK with the country swinging to a centre vs centre-right dichotomy.

[Hatman 🍁]

As an outsider looking in, it seems to me that Canadian voters are really volatile in federal elections, even between strange pairs like centre-left and centre-right. So that suggests all the parties aren't that distant from each other.

More like we have a lot of wishy-washy centrists in this country.

[Hatman 🍁]

By-election today in Conception Bay South, NL. Profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/provincial-by-election-in-conception.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Haha. Well, it at least should be a close race. Those are always fun.

[Hatman 🍁]

1/44 polls reporting on elections NL site.

However, some guy from CBC is reporting the Tories are ahead 457-421

[Hatman 🍁]

This one is really, really close.

[Hatman 🍁]

According to the Liberals, they have a 41 vote lead with 2 polls to go

[Hatman 🍁]

Final result according to Liberal HQ:

Lib 2102
PC 2034
NDP 120

As I predicted, super close. Bad night for the NDP, but chalk that up to the horse race going on.

[Hatman 🍁]

Remember, the Liberals won 6 seats in 2011. They now have 14.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final tally:

Liberal: 2102 (49.4; +42.6%)
PC: 2026 (47.6%; -21.6%)
NDP: 130 (3.1%; -21.0%)

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories will win a handful of seats, the question is which ones? Perhaps the leader's seat (Topsail).

[Hatman 🍁]

Keep in mind that about one third of the current riding of Whitby-Oshawa is in the city of Oshawa and after redistribution most of that gets folded into the riding of Oshawa in exchange for Oshawa ceding some of the more outlying northern parts of Oshawa to the riding of Durham. I have heard that Trish McAuliffe the NDP candidate in Whitby-Oshawa is likely to run in Oshawa next year (and Oshawa went NDP by 8,000 votes provincially) - so in the byelection the NDP strategy is probably for her to concentrate very heavily on the part of Whitby-Oshawa that will become part of Oshawa rising in 2015 so she can boost her name recognition there and go for the kill when its all part of Oshawa.

That's a good plan. We now know that Oshawa is a winnable riding, especially with the new boundaries.

[Hatman 🍁]

Lloydminster will be having a by-election Thursday. Here's the profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/provincial-by-election-in-lloydminster.html

Got it out of the way due to the many electoral events coming up on Saturday and next Monday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sask Party easily winning in Lloydminster. My theory of a Liberal resurgence has fizzled, they are behind the dormant PC Party candidate so far!

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals ended up in third, but not much more than the Tories. Results very similar to 2011:

SP: 64.05 (-2.4%)
NDP: 28.93 (-0.2%)
Lib: 2.76
PC: 2.51
Grn: 1.75 (-2.7%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Profile of Saint John East: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/saint-john-east-new-brunswick.html

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile's of Yellowhead and Whitby-Oshawa: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/federal-by-elections-in-yellowhead-and.html

[Hatman 🍁]

OK, Cardy's last kick at the can was a flop. He can go away now

% change:

PC: +7.4
Lib: -9.2
NDP: +3.4
Grn: -0.4
PANB: -1.2

[Hatman 🍁]

1/284 polls in Yellowhead:

Conservative   32
Liberal   3
Libertarian   2
NDP-New Democratic Party   1
Independent   1

[Hatman 🍁]

1/280 in Whitby-Oshawa

NDP-New Democratic Party   11
Conservative   11
Liberal   9
Green Party   1

11 polls in Yellowhead

Conservative   220
Liberal   58
NDP-New Democratic Party   41
Independent   19
Libertarian   15

[Hatman 🍁]

Good job, CBC. You really had to try with that one.