Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the race is between Mathieson and Barlow. Barlow is more moderate and Mathieson is on the right wing. Polls close in 45 minutes. Mathieson is just 24 years old btw.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah?



"C'mon Rob, let's go shoot us some commie towel heads!"

[Hatman 🍁]

Barlow wins There is hope for gun country

[Hatman 🍁]

3 Toronto lakefront by-elections in this parliament. (4 if you include Durham )

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP has nominated Lori McDaniel, a union rep and Suncor employee in Ft McMurray-Athabasca.

[Hatman 🍁]

Now here is a good test of Trudeaumania. The Liberals need to win these mid-905 seats to form government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Virginia Waters by-election has been set for April 9

[Hatman 🍁]

Trinity-Spadina poll by RB's favourite pollster:

NDP: 46
Liberal: 32
Cons: 15
Grn: 6

Surprisingly, NDP voters from 2011 are the most likely to stay with the same party.

Also note the huge gender gap in the poll. NDP leads with women (55-25), but Liberals with men (40-37)!

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't be too over confident about Trinity-Spadina. The Liberals have been inching closer and closer to the NDP for a long time, (mostly provincially).  Admittedly though, I don't think Trudeau is getting as much traction in Downtown Toronto as he is in other parts of the country. In the Toronto Centre by-election, the Liberals only got a 2% swing towards them (from the NDP), which is nowhere near what they need to pick up Trinity-Spadina.

Despite the current strength of the provincial NDP right now, the party should be worried about losing it provincially. Wynne is very popular in Toronto right now, and the NDP strength seems to be outside the 416.

[Hatman 🍁]

Linda Jeffrey (Ontario cabinet minister, MPP for Brampton-Springdale) resigned to run for mayor of Brampton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Joe Cressy is the only NDP candidate to come forward for the nomination in Trinity-Spadia, so he's going to win by acclaimation.

I must say I'm disappointed it'll be uncontested, but it's clear the party wants Cressy as the candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's rather unfortunate. Doesn't Barry Weisleder live in Trinity-Spadina? He should've run. It would've been very amusing.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose we can't have a more open process until the other parties do. We can't have a monopoly on all the crazies. But in a fair world, Barry would be able to run. I wouldn't support him obviously, but he should have the right to do so.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe the riding can finally be represented by an Asian for once.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe the riding can finally be represented by an Asian for once.

Looking at who's running and declared so far, Doubt it...
Sherene Shaw who was black represented ward 39 until 2003 when Del Grande won. Kelly's been there since 94, before that he was a Liberal MP (Really? Liberal, meh guess I can see that lol). The  closest was Soo Wong who was the School board trustee for Scarborough-Agincourt and now is the Liberal MPP

Geez. The riding is nearly half (47%) Chinese! Too bad. FTR, the riding is only 21% White.

As for Brampton-Springdale, it would be a harder fight for the NDP than Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

Compare

Bramtpon-Springdale:

Sikhs: 19%
South Asians: 38%
Avg. household income: $92K

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Sikhs: 22%
South Asians: 45%
Avg. household income: $84K

Very similar yes, but not "good enough"

[Hatman 🍁]

I never really understood why the Liberals had socially conservative MPs. (It's not like the Liberals have ever been a populist/communitarian party, so if you're conservative economically and socially, what are you doing in the Liberal Party) I guess having a bunch in Scarborough made some sense, due to the minorities there who voted Liberal. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Well yes, there are the old tribal voting patterns of Catholics voting Liberal and Protestants voting Tory (opposite in Newfoundland). But I think the Liberals were usually always more socially progressive than the conservatives, right?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well yes, there are the old tribal voting patterns of Catholics voting Liberal and Protestants voting Tory (opposite in Newfoundland). But I think the Liberals were usually always more socially progressive than the conservatives, right?

"Social issues" were simply a different set of issue cleavages before the 1960s. LGBT issues or abortion were simply not issues, versus temperance or British-imperialism which cut 'progress' in different ways

I am well aware that gay rights were not an issue before the 1960s...

It is true that temperance was considered a "progressive issue" at the time, and the Liberals opposed it, but looking at the issue from today's point of view, temperance was very anti progressive.

Not sure if supporting British imperialism was ever a "progressive" view. Perhaps maybe in contrast with wanting to focus foreign policy with the US.

[Hatman 🍁]

By-election today in Virginia Waters, NL

Profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/04/virginia-waters-newfoundland-by.html

[Hatman 🍁]

1 poll reporting

PC: 11
NDP: 10
Lib: 9

[Hatman 🍁]

VOCM says:  Lib: 203, PC: 169, NDP: 141  (8 polls reporting).

[Hatman 🍁]

According to VOCM: Lib: 1066, PC: 1047, NDP: 627

[Hatman 🍁]

With only "a couple polls to go":  Lib: 1305, PC: 1264, NDP: 720

[Hatman 🍁]

Twitter says: Lib: 1885  PC: 1839 NDP: 971 with one poll to go.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's over, the Liberals win by 38 votes:

Lib 1930; PC: 1892; NDP: 1026