Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry, I'm still getting the hang of GIS.

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent stuff, Krago.

When you see a province-wide IVR poll with regional breakouts - its almost guaranteed that those regions are based on area codes. This is because a province wide poll likely includes a chunk of cell phone numbers and the only way you can know where those people live is by area code. So I am 99% certain that when Forum refers to "northern Ontario" they actually mean area codes 807/705 - and 705 and actually comes as far south as Peterborough. Its also very likely that their definition of 905 is literally the 905 area code which includes all of Hamilton-Niagara.

Forum's regions are obvious, we're talking about Ipsos, which conducts their polls online. They may not even have phone numbers for their panel.

[Hatman 🍁]

On closer inspection, it appears that a lot of Ipsos' map oddities are a result of odd shaped FSAs. 

look at N0B, for instance https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ontario+N0B/@43.513311,-80.4542224,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x882b8d2cd0a914eb:0x857e9407ecd2e668

Still no excuse for putting L0J in the 416.

[Hatman 🍁]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Charlie Angus doesn't speak French though.

Federally, Kapuskasing, Hearst and the surrounding Francophone communities are not part of Timmins-James Bay.  Provincially, they are. 

Good point, but Timmins has some French enclaves.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nominations close May 22 BTW

[Hatman 🍁]

Another constituency poll (Don Valley West): http://oraclepoll.com/uploads/Don_Valley_West_Report_.pdf

Lib: 57.1 (Kathleen Wynne)
PC: 35.1
NDP: 5.2
Grn: 2.6

[Hatman 🍁]

Sneak peak at my next projection numbers (I hope to have something up tomorrow):

Lib: 52
PC: 37
NDP: 18

Star looks at Brampton-Springdale.

Is the NDP actually competitive in Brampton-Springdale, as the article suggests? I can believe it, given their advances in the riding to the east, but on the other hand, I can also see some reporter just giving equal space to all three candidates without much local knowledge. This is the sort of thing that would not be picked up by regional polling.

I looked into this earlier, and demographically the riding is slightly less NDP friendly than Bramalea-Gore-Malton, meaning the NDP could get up to ~30%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Riding poll, and from a firm no one's ever heard of.

Oracle did some riding polls in the last federal election.


Anyways, here's my projection (finally!): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/05/2014-ontario-election-projection-week-3.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Another constituency poll (Don Valley West): http://oraclepoll.com/uploads/Don_Valley_West_Report_.pdf

Lib: 57.1 (Kathleen Wynne)
PC: 35.1
NDP: 5.2
Grn: 2.6

FWIW, I think that these riding polls are often a good way to see if the trends being shown at the province-wide level in some polls are being born out at the local level. For example, if Ipsos was right and the PCs were 9 points ahead of the OLP and almost tied in the City of Toronto - i would expect to see a much narrower gap in Don Valley West than this. In 2011 Wynne took 58% in her riding and this poll has her at 57% - that does NOT suggest to me that there is any serious erosion in Liberal support in a Toronto riding.

Perhaps good news for the NDP, as it may be an indication that their Toronto vote erosion may be happening in safe Liberal seats more than in their downtown-held seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP vote in Don Valley West wasn't much higher in 2011 - i think they only got 8%

Right,  but that's a huge drop in terms of the ratio. Similar ratio decreases in similar ridings like St. Paul's and Toronto Centre (north of Bloor) could mean the NDP vote on the lakefront is holding steady.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just like Ipsos, they use an opt-in online panel. Just like Ipsos, Abacus' polling shows something different than everyone else.

Weird though, Abacus has used IVR and other methods in the past.

[Hatman 🍁]

A three-way race is much more fun than the Libs and Tories going back and forth in the polls.

Indeed. So far the race is shaping up to be a repeat of the last election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sid Ryan is releasing some more EKOS internals:



The "original assessment" was actually the one I provided to them

[Hatman 🍁]

Sid Ryan is releasing some more EKOS internals:



The "original assessment" was actually the one I provided to them

Well, technically, if he paid for them, aren't those his internals?

Yes, yes. Same difference

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Sid Ryan leak:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Very misleading tweet, those numbers are similar to the by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seat projection summary from all the major seat projectors: ( ) http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/ontario-seat-projections/ (also includes Forum Research though)

[Hatman 🍁]

Factoring in the Abacus poll:

[Hatman 🍁]

Any commentary about the NDP's bold "false front-wrap" on today's Toronto Sun?



Interesting strategy, but it continues the NDP framing itself with populist rhetoric.

[Hatman 🍁]

Any commentary about the NDP's bold "false front-wrap" on today's Toronto Sun?



Interesting strategy, but it continues the NDP framing itself with populist rhetoric.

Is it unfair of me for thinking yet more negatively of the NDP for patronizing that rag with their business?

As we've discussed in this thread, there's very few NDP-friendly papers, especially in Ontario. The Toronto Start for one has been way more critical of the NDP than the Sun.

My beef is that ads like these are deceitful, but she's taken a page out of Christy Clark's play book, so maybe it will work? It's quite ballsy for sure. Don't count me as one of those people upset with the populist rhetoric, so I'm liking how the campaign is going, even if it's stagnant at the moment.

[Hatman 🍁]

Any NDPer who isn't voting NDP this time isn't a real NDPer anyway. I know, know, no true Scotsman...

[Hatman 🍁]

I read the new Forum poll in today's Toronto Star.  It shows the Liberal lead over the PCs widening from three points (38%-35%) to seven (41%-34%), yet somehow, the projected lead in seats has shrunk from 42 (68-26) to 32 (63-31).  These guys must have PhDs because I can't figure it out!

Ipsos is out tonight, curious to see if their trend is continuing.

Ipsos will likely show the Tories with a small lead, or maybe a tie.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nominations are closed; Tories and Liberals are running a full slate. NDP doesn't have a candidate in Durham (a riding they won in 1990!) I suppose Larry O'Connor wasn't available?

Greens have missed quite a few as well, they're only running 85. And the Libertarians who said they were going to run a full slate may be running only around half.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nominations are closed; Tories and Liberals are running a full slate. NDP doesn't have a candidate in Durham (a riding they won in 1990!) I suppose Larry O'Connor wasn't available?

Greens have missed quite a few as well, they're only running 85. And the Libertarians who said they were going to run a full slate may be running only around half.

The NDP is running Derek Spence in Durham

Nope: http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/electoral-districts/019-durham.aspx

Unless Elections Ontario hasn't updated their listing? Today was the deadline.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yet another poll "shocker" in Ontario - this time from Ipsos - they have the PCs losing ground to the NDP - I guess the NDP "wrap around the Toronto Sun" worked like a charm

PC - 35% (-4)
OLP - 31% (+1)
NDP - 28% (+4)

They also now have Andrea Horwath in first place as best premier!

Game changer ? Outlier ?

The might be on to something. Abacus had the NDP @ 26% earlier this week.

Both Ipsos and Abacus are using opt-in online panels, which I think skew anti-incumbent. Anyways, I called it:

Ipsos will likely show the Tories with a small lead, or maybe a tie.

[Hatman 🍁]

LV worked just fine here in QC last month for both Ipsos and Angus-Reid. As Bricker said, GOTV/motivation game.

I'm seeing a huge discrepancy by the pollsters, and the difference between the two sides is methodology.  Personally, my gut feeling is that the Liberals are ahead right now.