Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

These are how the other meetings went:
Oswald: St.Vital, Seine River, Southdale, Riel
Ashton: Rossmere

[Hatman 🍁]

Map:

[Hatman 🍁]

The Winnipeg firefighters union, which gets 25 delegates has backed Ashton. For the record, CUPE gets 288 delegates, and labour as a whole gets 691. (I wonder if that's "labour" or actually "affiliated groups" which tend to always be labour.) 

[Hatman 🍁]

So, who you all rooting for?

Oswald, I guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated map:

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated map:

That seems very close.. do we have all the delegate numbers totaled thus far?
Oswald - 7 Ridings
Ashton - 6 Ridings
Sellinger - 1 Riding

trebor just posted them, but that's excluding the labour pledged delegates so far :

CUPE (288): Selinger
UFFW (25): Ashton (United Firefighters of Winnipeg)

Always nice to see Winnipeg's bravest as NDP supporters.

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated map:

Selinger wins Gimli, Oslwald wins Charleswood and Lakeside, Ashton wins Tuxedo

[Hatman 🍁]

Delegate totals so far (count down to 2221!), as reported by Alice Funke:

Selinger: 351 (most of which coming from CUPE)
Ashton: 169
Oswald: 126

UFCW is the next big union that will make an endorsement, they have 160 delegates. They're expected to go to Ashton. The Steelworkers are also expected to go to Ashton.

I'm starting to think Ashton will win. Oswald is only winning suburban ridings with few members, and has no union support so far.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's map:



Funke's numbers are:

Selinger: 354
Ashton: 174
Oswald: 146

Oswald did well in yesterday's delegate meetings, but they were a bunch of rural ridings with small memberships.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ashton wins Fort Richmond, Selinger wins Kildonan.

New map:

[Hatman 🍁]

Over the weekend, Selinger won Brandon East, Brandon West, St. Johns and Logan, Ashton won Radisson and Oswald won Transcona and Wolseley. Still waiting on The Maples, which started counting this morning (117 delegates!)

[Hatman 🍁]

New map:

[Hatman 🍁]

New map:



Oswald takes Dauphin (17 delegates) and Riding Mountain is split 3-2 (Selinger - Oswald)

[Hatman 🍁]

New map:



Oswald wins Agassiz and Portage la Prairie (5 delegates each)

[Hatman 🍁]

ON: Gretzky endorses Brown.

Oh Wayne Gretzky. There are two other Gretzky's in Ontario politics. His uncle Al is a perennial Freedom Party candidate (and former federal Tory candidate) and his cousin-in-law Lisa Gretzky is an NDP MPP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated Manitoba NDP leadership map:



Just waiting for 3 more ridings. Delegate counts include union support and youth.

Delegates to come: 405
Delegates needed: 1111

Selinger can still theoretically win on the first ballot.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does Selinger look favoured to win a runoff?

Can't say I have any idea how this is going to go.

[Hatman 🍁]

Midland goes to Selinger:



I've removed union delegates from the total, as many have pointed out that they're not reliably going to go to one candidate or another. If we do include union endorsements, the totals would be:

Selinger: 821
Ashton: 569
Oswald: 439

[Hatman 🍁]

St. Boniface only has 23 delegates and Swan River has 22 (MLA is a Selinger supporter). However, if you do the math that will not be enough to even get to 2nd place.

St. Boniface is tonight, while Swan River is mail-in, so who knows when we'll know when they're in.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, maybe Elliot won't win after all.  I guess the Tories never want to ever form government. Let the playboy win, then.

[Hatman 🍁]

Justin is at least married, so his playboy days are long over.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earle McCurdy wins the NDP N&L leadership, replacing Lorraine Michael. He won on the first ballot with two thirds of the vote. Hopefully he is popular enough to save the party there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow. It's anyone guess... I guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. RIP Manitoba NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

My take: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/03/re-cap-of-manitoba-ndp-leadership.html

And, I don't think the NDP will get completely wiped out. Unlike Nova Scotia (where they nearly did), Manitoba does have a few traditional safe seats that the Tories would never win. The Liberals though, could pick up some seats and form opposition.