Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Hatman 🍁]

Might as well, he's not going to win anyways.

[Hatman 🍁]

Peter Pensahue is running for the Tories in Labrador

LOL

[Hatman 🍁]

And it may just be a squeaker again.

It's a northern riding so, I guess the Tory strategists think his base will turn out for him no matter what. Not that I think it will matter if they run him or some staffer, but I can see the logic.

It would be ridiculous though if Penashue's local base and an NDP surge in Atlantic Canada result in him squeaking in

That could just happen, actually. NDP wins West Labrador, Penashue wins the north, and the Liberals win the south.

Who does everyone think will win?

Well, considering the polls show a 3-way tie...

[Hatman 🍁]

You mean the same Paul Martin who seems to think Mulcair is the second coming of Ronald Reagan? OK

[Hatman 🍁]

Their problem lies mostly in their riding polls. Sure they get many right, but they get so many wrong too. And it's more than just TAKE RIDING POLLS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT that Al keeps reminding us, it's they don't even try to get them right. I mean, polling just on a Sunday (of all days) and reporting that as an accurate representation of the electorate? Weighting people 5% of respondents  in a poll up to 50% of the total? I mean, does anyone over there even know what they're doing? 

[Hatman 🍁]

I really have nothing to add here other than WTF.

LOL

[Hatman 🍁]

Managing a Conservative campaign is such a foreign concept for me that I have no idea where I could even begin. I suppose I would start by unmuzzling my candidates?

[Hatman 🍁]

Managing a Conservative campaign is such a foreign concept for me that I have no idea where I could even begin. I suppose I would start by unmuzzling my candidates?

Considering the intellect of some/many Tory candidates and even ministers, that's not a very good idea.

It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe Harper should go rogue a la Donald Trump. At this point, what does he have to lose?

[Hatman 🍁]

We can always make room for a few more shawarma restaurants.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anybody been checking Threehundredeight lately?   Parkdale-High Park going Liberal?  Yeah, not going to happen Eric.  That Trudeau hard on this guy has, though.

He has Parkdale going Liberal? Jesus. Word to the wise: don't pay attention to him, at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see no evidence that the NDP is losing that much support in Toronto. It's probably coming from non traditional NDP areas that were flirting with the idea of supporting the NDP, but are now coming back to the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos is working hard to change the public's perception on the state of the race towards the Liberals. And the more they see that it's Liberals who are ahead in all these polls, they'll strategically change their votes from the NDP to the Libs to dump Harper.

Earl, can we start getting new EKOS polls every 2 days showing the NDP in the lead?

How much money do you have?

Don't fret overmuch about regional breakdowns. They are trash by definition. But I think you should consider (as like citizens and so on) pushing for polls of provinces. Like proper ones.

A laughable idea indeed, good sir!

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos has 32/30/29.

It begins. *sigh*

[Hatman 🍁]

That is unless Quebecers warm up to the Liberals again.  I don't see that happening if the Tories are in third, but if the NDP slips to third, it could happen.

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn this forum for not having a dislike button

[Hatman 🍁]

Even if Canadian pollsters are garbage, their numbers still influence the news narrative, especially when there is a large chunk of promiscuous progressives who just want to vote against Harper and don't care how they do it.

Yes. Like it or not, people pay attention to the polls, and vote accordingly. Scary as it is, this makes Eric Grenier the most powerful person in the country.

[Hatman 🍁]

Because an Australian is going to understand our political system. The only Aussie who would be qualified for that post is our very own Smid.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think you will find Canada to be quite different from Britain, as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering what the seat target is for the Tories to have any chance of a minority government.  If they are the biggest party in seat terms but just barely, seems like they would fail, but what if they are pretty close to a seat majority?

Your guess is as good as anyone's

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more candidate issues, this time with the Liberals: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/09/christopher-w-brown-liberal-candidate-tweets_n_8113368.html

I knew I recognized him, I have conversed with him the past on Twitter.  He no longer has an account, which means I have lost a follower

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm told that Ekos also has a three way race in Ontario for some reason Nanos is a big outlier in Ontario

The EKOS numbers will be very interesting

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a three-way statistical tie, guys. Let's not over analyze every minute percentage point in the data.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC talking about how the Liberals are running left of the NDP.

The CBC is not even trying to hide the fact they want to get the Liberals elected. It worked last year in the provincial election.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are people who don't follow politics. News at 11.