Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS is going to do polls every day now. I did one tonight, and the callers I called all voted Liberal last election, but all will switch their votes. They were all in Ontario too. 3 plan on voting tory and one NDP. My predicitions for tommorows paper?

Conservative: 38%
Liberal: 27%
NDP: 17%

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there a site where we can plug in percentages and get seat totals?(ala electoralcalculus.co.uk)

Yes: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/

Here is the 2004 result:



On election night I will *try* to create a similar map updated to reflect election calls.

You stole that off of wiki. It's *so* hideous. I will be making better maps on election night, if I am here. I probably wont be actually.. ha! The next day, for sure though.

[Hatman 🍁]

There will be no Tory candidate in British Columbia Southern Interior; the current Tory candidate is in trouble over smuggling charges. It's too late for the Tories to pick a new candidate. The previous candidate will still be on the ballot; he won't be let into the Tory caucus if he wins though. Harper acted so fast on this it must have made the guy's head spin...
The riding in question (which runs along the U.S border, largely north of Washington IIRC) was a razor-thin Con/NDP marginal last election and the current Tory M.P is standing down this election.

YES! One of our targets!

[Hatman 🍁]

A Liberal candidate in B.C (Abbotsford I think) has apparently tried to bribe the NDP candidate to drop out of the race

What stupidity, neither party will win Abbotsford. It's in the heart BC's bible belt.

[Hatman 🍁]

The tories will attempt to govern in a minority the same way the Liberals have. With wheeling and dealing with the other parties. They will need the Liberals for economic measures, socially conservaitve Liberals for their social agenda, the NDP for electoral reform and the BQ and NDP for integrity issues.

[Hatman 🍁]

I just want to add something to rebut the Vorlon's statement that the tories will do better than they are polling. I disagree. People are embarassed to admit they will be voting Liberal. This gives the tories inflated numbers. You should recall this happening last time as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals ride the bus? wtf? lol... this is not the US. Liberals here tend to be both rich and poor, much like the Conservatives too. Regionalism is a bigger factor than wealth. Perhaps only the NDP and the BQ get votes based on wealth, but that doesn't include cities like Ottawa and Toronto and some places in British Columbia.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

I don't really know why, but BC has come to have an amazing ability to utterly defy and even openly revolt against basically any trends emerging in the rest of Canada.  I'm almost 100% sure that if the Conservatives got, say, a 200-seat majority, BC would give every last seat to the Liberals.

That's not what happened in 1984

[Hatman 🍁]

Just did a poll tonight. I got 13 surveys done, and maybe one or two said they were voting Liberal. Very happy, the NDP got about 7, the rest Conservative. Interestingly, not one single person said that knowledge of an inevitable tory majority would sway their vote. Also a good sign One caller said he was voting for good ol' Ed (Schreyer)

[Hatman 🍁]

What sort of district did you poll in?

NDP leaner I assume?

It was a national poll. Mostly in Ontario though, with 3 in the Atlantic and one Manitoba. Interestinly one of the dippers was from Newfoundland

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow NDP is at 20% in Outremont? Makes sense, their candidate is a popular professor.

[Hatman 🍁]

I just researched the independent running in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier and it is Andre Arthur, a popular radio personality in the Quebec City area. Wouldn't that be interesting if he won?

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, look at the SES polls. They used to be an anamoly with low %'s for the NDP, now look at the results. 19%?

[Hatman 🍁]

Very interesting poll from B.C... more useful than any regional breakdown methinks...

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pr/20060119.htm

I liked the part where 4% of respondents said that NDP has the best chance of winning.

I got someone who said the NDP was going to win in a survey this evening. She probably misunderstood the question though, thinking her riding. Probably the same goes for that 4%

Anyways, I shall say this now, I cannot by law comment on election results until all the polls have closed. (f**k you Gabu ) Plus, I probably won't be around as I will be scruiteneering.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyways, I shall say this now, I cannot by law comment on election results until all the polls have closed. (f**k you Gabu )

I'M HAULING YOU INTO THE BIG HOUSE MISTER

I should clarify, I meant on election night.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polling is banned within 48 hours of the polls opening. No more polls, guys.

[Hatman 🍁]

whats your prediction Earl?

It's coming

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll ban is still in effect. That's why EKOS is not running polls this weekend. I should know more than you, Vorlon, I work for EKOS. Poll results revealed this weekend are from Friday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my predictions:

Newfoundland and Labrador
Liberal 5
Cons   2
NDP   0

Changes: none

Nova Scotia
Liberal   6
Cons   3
NDP   2
Changes: none

Prince Edward Island
Liberal   4
Cons   0
NDP   0
Changes: none

New Brunswick
Cons   5
Liberal   4
NDP   1
Changes: Saint John, Tobique-Mactaquac (Lib to Cons)

Montreal
Liberal 12
BQ   10
Cons   0
Changes: Ahuntsic, Jeanne-le Ber, Papineau (Lib to BQ)

North of the St Lawrence
Liberal 1
BQ   14
Cons   2
Ind   1
Changes:
Gatineau (Liberal to BQ)
Louis-Saint-Laurent (BQ to Cons)
Pontiac (Liberal to Cons)
Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier (BQ to Ind)

South of the St Lawrence
Liberal   1
BQ   23
Cons   1
Changes:
Beauce (Lib to Cons)
Brome-Missisquoi (Lib to BQ)

Northern Quebec
Lib   0
BQ   10
Cons   0
Changes: None

Toronto
Lib   20
Cons   0
NDP   2
Changes: Trinity-Spadina (Lib to NDP)

Greater Toronto Area
Lib      12
Cons      17
NDP      3
Changes:
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough Westdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Brampton West, Burlington, Halton,  Mississauga South, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville, St. Catharines, Whitby-Oshawa (Lib to Cons)
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain (Liberal to NDP)
Mississauga-Erindale (Ind to Lib)

Eastern Ontario
Lib   5
Cons   11
NDP   1
Changes:
Northumberland-Quinte West, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa West-Nepean (Lib to Cons)

Northern Ontario:
Changes:
Lib   6
NDP   3
Cons   1
Changes:
Parry Sound-Muskoka (Lib to Cons)
Kenora (Lib to NDP)

Southwestern Ontario:
Changes:
Lib   7
Cons   15
NDP   3
Brant, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Kitchener-Conestoga, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Barrie, Simcoe-North (Lib to Cons)
London-Fanshawe (Ind to NDP)

Manitoba
Lib   3
Cons   7
NDP   4
Changes:
Churchill (Ind to NDP)

Saskatchewan
Lib   1
Cons   13
NDP   0
Changes: none

Alberta
Liberal   0
Cons   28
NDP    0

Changes: Edmonton Centre (Lib to Cons), Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont (Ind to Cons)

Lower Mainland
Liberal   5
Cons   11
NDP    5

Changes:
New Westminster-Coquitlam (Cons to NDP)
North Vancouver (Lib to Cons)
Surrey North (Ind to NDP) 

BC Interior/North
Cons   8
NDP   1

Changes:
British Columbia Southern Interior (Cons to NDP)
Skeena-Bulkley Valley (NDP to Cons)

Vancouver Island

Cons   3
NDP   3

Changes:
Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (Liberal to NDP)

North
Liberal   2
NDP   1

Changes:
Northwest Territories (Lib to NDP)

[Hatman 🍁]

Totals:

Liberals: 94
Cons: 127
NDP: 29
BQ: 57
Ind: 1

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

I am very disappointed that you decided to support corruption, lies, broken promises and Canada's other Conservative Party instead of positive change (for the NDP)

[Hatman 🍁]

A Conservative minority would be great for electoral reform which is a very important issue for me. Conservative elected senate + NDP PR = PR Senate

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone want to illegaly post the results so far? Polls have closed in Atlantic Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone want to illegaly post the results so far? Polls have closed in Atlantic Canada.

This website is outside the US, it would not even be illegal

I know