Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow @ Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't Greens tend to overpoll? I cannot see Quebec voting strongly Green and NDP, although the lower BQ numbers do help. Has Quebec suddenly become more federalist? I'm also shocked that the Greens are a point away from the Conservatives; even for Quebec that's sad. I thought Harper was trying to gain back the vote in Quebec... I guess he failed.

I'd like to see a Green actually win a seat. Maybe Elizabeth May can win one, or in Bruce or BC.

The NDP has a seat in Quebec now, so their numbers make sense. I'm surprised they're not higher, actually.

The Greens do tend to over poll, but the last provincial election in Ontario showed only a little bit of over polling. It's quite unfortunate, since the Greens are basically the NDP with a messed up economic policy.

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't Greens tend to overpoll?

Yes, they do.

Not in Ontario 2007, which implies that they are no longer overpolling.

Don't Greens tend to overpoll? I cannot see Quebec voting strongly Green and NDP, although the lower BQ numbers do help. Has Quebec suddenly become more federalist? I'm also shocked that the Greens are a point away from the Conservatives; even for Quebec that's sad. I thought Harper was trying to gain back the vote in Quebec... I guess he failed.

I'd like to see a Green actually win a seat. Maybe Elizabeth May can win one, or in Bruce or BC.

The NDP has a seat in Quebec now, so their numbers make sense. I'm surprised they're not higher, actually.

The Greens do tend to over poll, but the last provincial election in Ontario showed only a little bit of over polling. It's quite unfortunate, since the Greens are basically the NDP with an messed up intelligent economic policy.

Fixed.

Har har. The "Green tax shift" is all great in theory, but would never work. The NDP's economic policy is hardly as radical.

[Hatman 🍁]

Prime Minister Dion sounds better than Prime Minister Harper dosen't it?

"DZEE-yaw(n)"

Not really

[Hatman 🍁]

Miles better than Layton, but not quite as good as May.

Keep dreaming.

Even poll results show Canadians prefer Layton over Dion, despite being a third party.

[Hatman 🍁]

She wont win, but a former Liberal backbencher in Quebec will be running for the NDP in Gatineau.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ottawa/story/2008/02/25/ot-boivin-080225.html

It's rare to see a Liberal switch to the orange side, so I am happy to see this.  It looks like Mulcair may have started something.

[Hatman 🍁]

It still boggles my mind why the Liberals chose that doofus. From the beginning I didn't see him as a serious candidate at all.

He was neither Ignatieff nor Rae.

[Hatman 🍁]

You know, I still have difficulty seeing Ignatieff as being a politician, rather than someone from late-night arts coverage on BBC 2.

Those for whom he had abandoned for all that time know him as nothing but.

[Hatman 🍁]

I support both the Liberals and the NDP. Since I won't be voting there I have that option

Do the Liberals, NDP and Greens differ on any important issues? I worry that three left wing parties will lead to a bigger Conservative victory over a divided opposition.

We've been waiting for this for over 2 years now. Who gets the most credit for making Harper's Gov't last this long? I assume the Liberals, because they knew Dion wasn't ready yet.

Canada only has one major left wing party. Neither the Liberals nor the Greens can be characterized as such.

[Hatman 🍁]

It says a lot about Harper that Dion may well form a government.

In other news, I'm pissed off that the election is so close to the American election. And the Liberals are pretty close to our Democrats (that is, not leftist).

Why would you be pissed off that the Liberals are not leftist?

[Hatman 🍁]

fyi, no one expected the fixed election date act to be followed during minority governments...

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't mind Earl. He's a hard core dipper (NDP supporter for those outside Canada) and they have a fetish about saying they're the only left wing party in Canada and the Liberals are actually rightists. They say it all the time. It's like a verbal tick.

Sadly, my comment is part of the answer to your second question. The NDP and Liberals would be loathe to form a coalition government. The Liberals see the NDP as no better than gum on their shoe and want nothing to do with them. Especially if it means putting them in a position of power or influence. The NDP sees the Liberals (as I mentioned) as repackaged Conservatives. Some, out of desperation to finally form a government, might swallow their pride and agree to a coalition but most would see it as selling out.

As for the Greens, your suggestion that they 'should' be supporting the NDP sounds a lot like the Liberal argument that the NDP 'should' be supporting them. After all, if you add up all the NDP and Liberal votes the Conservatives would be in permanent opposition, and who could argue with that? (sarcasm intended)

Frustration at vote splitting is a legitimate grievance, particularly when it benefits a sinister bully like Harper. That said, wishing for a coalition of NDP/Liberal/Green is naive. Though they're both leftist parties, the NDP and Liberals disagree on a lot of issues; finding a common banner would be difficult and probably wouldn't last. The Greens transcend the left/right economic divide, though they're pretty close to the NDP and Liberals on social issues. The ideological roots of the three parties just aren't close enough to support a coalition. It's a nice thought, though.

Prove that the Liberals are a left wing party Supporting a few socially progressive planks does not a left wing party make. On electoral reform, the Liberals are still in the stone age. That's why I'd rather see a Harper minority government than a Liberal one.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's why I'd rather see a Harper minority government than a Liberal one.

Disgusting.

I hate the Liberals, I really do.

Interesting poll results... which party would best deal with environmental issues such as global warming and environmental pollution?

Liberals 21
NDP 20
Tories 20
Greens 20
BQ 3

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens 20

20% of Canadians are retards.

Corrected

[Hatman 🍁]

So, an election is called and a really quite disastrous poll for the Liberals comes out.

EKOS
Con: 37
Lib: 24
NDP: 19
Green: 10
BQ: 6

Of course, there are some weird regional breakdowns in there, and I doubt Harper is that far ahead. The breakdown in Quebec is of particular interest:

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

FYI, I still work for EKOS, but I haven't been doing any election polling as part of the day sh**t. I did do one night shift, but they had me doing something else.  I believe our sample comes from the "EKOS panel", so isn't actually random, although I believe it's our first survey as part of our panel.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some good NDP numbers in Quebec, not so good in Ontario so far

[Hatman 🍁]

Some good NDP numbers in Quebec, not so good in Ontario so far

I hope you're not basing the first part of your sentence on the EKOS "poll".

hey now, don't dis Ekos! As I mentioned, the poll numbers our from our "EKOS panel", which is mostly online, and we all know how bad online polls are.

Historically, EKOS hasn't been a very bad pollster, so that's something to keep in mind. SES is the best (now called NANOS research or something like that)

[Hatman 🍁]

On an interesting sidenote,

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/even-tories-love-obama/

Among Conservatives:

Obama 48%
McCain 33%

Among NDPers

Obama 80%
McCain 7% (lol!)

Among the liebrals
Obama 82
McCain 8

Among the "Greens"
Obama 67
McCain 12

[Hatman 🍁]

Ekos will be doing it's polling by robot it seems, from what I read on their site, and overheard at work today. What a stupid idea It'll be interesting to see what whacky results it'll produce.

[Hatman 🍁]

Patrick Glemaud seemed like a nice guy when he spoke to my class last year. Too bad the prof couldn't find a tory MP to speak to us like the other two parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

I will be providing more analysis as soon as I get net access at my place (should be soon, I hope!)

On Thursday, the NDP nominated a friend of mine, Hijal De Sarkar as the candidate in my former riding of Ottawa South

[Hatman 🍁]

can someone explain to me what impact, if any, danny williams and his 'abc' campaign will have on the election.

from what i read, this fellow sounds like a blowhard.

Manning could conceivably fall in Avalon.

Williams is very, very, very popular. Don't underestimate him.

If the Conservatives win anywhere in NL, it will be Avalon. First off, they have no incumbents in the other two ridings. St John's South-Mount Pearl might stay Conservative if the Liberals and NDP split the vote, but St. John's East is definitely going NDP (or, rather, going Jack Harris). And St. John's South is only about 20% odds of a Conservative hold; I would currently project it for the NDP, too.

Wow, that's what I heard from an NDP insider, that he thinks we'll pick up both St. John's seats. I didn't really believe him at the time, and still can't!

As for the Nanos #s in Quebec... wtf? NDP at 17?  

[Hatman 🍁]

i was glad to see toronto mayor david miller call for a handgun ban a day after a school shooting in his city.

Indeed. The man is a good NDPer

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals now tied with Forces of Darkness in ON

Conservatives and Greens at 0?

Since as the Liberals are a subset of the Forces of Darkness, for them to be tied with the Forces of Darkness ...

Hahaha. I love you Lewis!

I wonder what's explaining the NDP #s in BC. Surely it's not all to blame on Dana Larsen. I just hope Peter Julian hangs on!

[Hatman 🍁]

What sort of colors are they using for the Bloc? Ugly.

Anyway, Liberal minority government. Please.

Eew... no. Stephane Dion is really annoying. I mean he would be a better PM, but the Liberals are just messy and they need to realign themselves. 

Doesn't the Bloc use Quebec-esque colors that don't confuse with the Blue of the Tories?

Go Elizabeth May and the Greens!

Uhh...what?

Anyway, I have come to the conclusion that the Greens are a meaningless party. There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

Exactly. The NDP is Canada's real Green Party.