If Hillary gets the nomination in 2008...

[patrick1]

I dont think she will run, and If she does i really dont think she will win. The First Woman President will be a Republican. And after 2006 she will not even have a seat in the senate.

I bet you money she wins re-election in 2006.

Depends who she is running against.  If it is another sacrificial lamb like Howard Mills, Rick Lazio or Bernadette Castro I would not go near that action.  If the horribly run New York State G.O.P. can field a candidate with a pulse-i.e. Powell or Rudy then your on. 
Side note: I don't know why Pataki is mentioned among some Republicans for 2008.  I think he is presiding over a dying NY G.O.P..  The party is getting slaughtered and it is all on Pataki's watch.  The only reason Pataki is still in office is because the Democrats have been fielding weak candidates against him.

[patrick1]

I dont think she will run, and If she does i really dont think she will win. The First Woman President will be a Republican. And after 2006 she will not even have a seat in the senate.

I bet you money she wins re-election in 2006.

Depends who she is running against.  If it is another sacrificial lamb like Howard Mills, Rick Lazio or Bernadette Castro I would not go near that action.  If the horribly run New York State G.O.P. can field a candidate with a pulse-i.e. Powell or Rudy then your on. 
Side note: I don't know why Pataki is mentioned among some Republicans for 2008.  I think he is presiding over a dying NY G.O.P..  The party is getting slaughtered and it is all on Pataki's watch.  The only reason Pataki is still in office is because the Democrats have been fielding weak candidates against him.

Pataki would be crushed. Rudy would make it interesting before he loses.

Pataki v. Hilary would be close.  I think Clinton would pull it out because I think a lot of New Yorkers are getting tired of Pataki.  I would be willing to bet everything I own that Rudy G would beat Hilary.  Reasoning:  Rudy is almost revered as a saint in the suburbs and he would crush Clinton there.  He would also be able to hold down Hilary's margin of victory in NYC.  White ethnics- Irish, Italian Greek Russian etc etc would go for Rudy overwhelmingly.  He would also  cut into a good deal of the Latino vote.  Rudy is also well liked in the Jewish community. Asian vote would also split.  Upstate, where the dems have been gaining, would still go for Rudy by a good margin.  Hilary would not be able to overwhelmingly carry NYC which is how Democrats win in close elections in NYS.

[patrick1]

Patrick: what's the chances of Powell running?

I don't see it happening.  There were some rumblings in the local papers but it is all speculation and wishful thinking among anti-Hillary people. Powell is like what 67 years old and he'd be 69 by the time the race goes and 75 at the end of a term.  I just don't Powell or his wife especially like politics.  I think he writes a book or goes on the speaking circuit.  Basically relaxes and makes some real cash.  The one factor that could possibly bring him to run is that he would not want to be remember for the UN thing.  I am not confident about 2006.  There are no real rising stars or people with name recognition save Rudy.  New York G.O.P. is in a sorry state of affairs.  Bloomberg is a RINO and Pataki has oversaw the loss of state senate seats and in the legislature.  I am trying to rack ,y brain for some viable candidates but am drawing a blank.  The Howard Mills candidacy was an absolute joke.  I didnt even vote for the guy. I went Conservative party.  I know your not a fan of Hilary either so I will keep my thinking cap on.

[patrick1]

Patrick: what's the chances of Powell running?

I don't see it happening.  There were some rumblings in the local papers but it is all speculation and wishful thinking among anti-Hillary people. Powell is like what 67 years old and he'd be 69 by the time the race goes and 75 at the end of a term.  I just don't Powell or his wife especially like politics.  I think he writes a book or goes on the speaking circuit.  Basically relaxes and makes some real cash.  The one factor that could possibly bring him to run is that he would not want to be remember for the UN thing.  I am not confident about 2006.  There are no real rising stars or people with name recognition save Rudy.  New York G.O.P. is in a sorry state of affairs.  Bloomberg is a RINO and Pataki has oversaw the loss of state senate seats and in the legislature.  I am trying to rack ,y brain for some viable candidates but am drawing a blank.  The Howard Mills candidacy was an absolute joke.  I didnt even vote for the guy. I went Conservative party.  I know your not a fan of Hilary either so I will keep my thinking cap on.

Hmm... how likely is a certain former mayor of NYC to run then?

Well he health is good this time and he would be able to raise a ridiculous amount of money.  There is certainly nothing to preclude him from running other than his own ambition.  Does he want the big chair in 2008 or will he settle for a Senate run in 2006? I don't really know. Kind of a zero sum situation. I couldn't possibly see him doing both.  Even R.F.K. waited 4 years.  I think he should run for the Senate in 2006.  As popular as he is he is just not conservative enough to win in the most G.O.P. primaries and if he lurches too far right he will be tagged with the infamous flip flop. 

[patrick1]

Another reason that Rudy should run for the Senate in 2006 as I stated above are that I don't think he can win the nomination.  Some of the "family values" activists in the party would not be pleased to find out some things about Giuliani.  He was married for fourteen years to a woman named Regina- his second cousin.  After all those years married he had the marriage annulled on grounds they were to closely related.  Not one of Rudy's finer moments IMO.  He then married Donna Hanover and while mayor he was screwing his press secretary- worst kept secret in town.
He is now very happily married to Judi Nathan.  I could care less who he shagged but this type of stuff could hurt him.  Not to mention that he is pro choice, gun control and gay nups.  Im breaking out my draft Rudy for 06 stickers now.

[patrick1]

that's what I've been saying, if Rudy is smart he realizes he has no chance on winning the presidential nomination (of course I have yet to see any evidence he wants to run) so he'd run for Senate or Governor instead, assuming he wants to continue a political career which I suspect he doesn't. But we'll see. I think he would rather be Governor than Senator and might try for that in 2006, since Pataki is rather unpopular he either might not run or would be easy to take out in the primaries.

I can't see him wanting to be Governor.  Albany is even worse than Washington D.C. in terms of corruption, gridlock, aesthetics etc.  Rudy G has said that he would like to go back to elective politics.  Rudy loves the limelight and I think he is itching to get back into the game.  Rudy is also a very ambitious guy.  Always has been.  He and Senator Pothole a.k.a. Crooked Al D'Amato even did an undercover sting operation one time while US Attorney.  He likes to play to the camera.  I would not wish the job of Governor of NY on anyone. If Schumer knows what is good for him he will let that media whore Spitzer run.  Office of Governor also gets very little press coverage here in the NYC metro area.  You hear about that turd Bloomberg a lot more than Pataki.