Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[politicus]

The objective of Scottish nationalism has mainly been to be able to create a society dominated by centre-left values and get contol of the local economy. Unless the political culture in England swings heavily to the left this is unlikely to be feasible in Britain at large, so that motive will remain relevant.

Actually for a long time a big part of the sovereignist project in Quebec has been built around a sort of cultural narcissism of "we are these enlightened social democratic, post-modern environmentalists in Quebec being dragged down by all those mouth breathing rednecks in the rest of Canada"...but now Canada is governed by the Conservatives who are even more unpopular in Quebec than the British Tories are in Scotland...and yet somehow that doesn't work. Even with a very rightwing federal government with almost no Quebec representation - support for Quebec independence has faded badly and in desperation the sovereignist movement has gotten into xenophobic immigrant bashing etc...

What happens to the zest for independence in Scotland in a few years when all the North Sea oil runs out and Scotland no longer deludes itself into thinking it can afford to go it alone?

AFAIK language was still at the heart of the popular appeal of Quebec nationalism. How many people actually bought into the construction you are describing?  

Regarding Scotlands economic future, they have one of the strongest national brands in the world to build on, which gives them some opportunities Quebec never had. A lot will depend on how the attempt to use oil money to reindustrualize the country turns out.

See also: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198670.msg4300328#msg4300328

[politicus]

Nah, but the party's appeal depends to a large extent on the different political values of Scots. Its not that all Scots are leftists, of course. But there is a different equilibrium in the Scottish social discourse compared to the English. 

Scottish political and social discourse is different, but that's mostly because Scotland has (and always has had) separate institutions and administrative policies to England.¹ The idea that people in Scotland have radically different 'values' - collectivist rather than individualist, inherently radical rather than inherently conservative, tolerant rather than bigoted, community minded rather than materialistic and all the rest - to people south of the Tweed is tiresome and hoary bullsh!t.² There is remarkably little evidence for any of it. Materialism and bigotry are not hard to find in Scotland while radicalism and tolerance are not hard to find in England. When Scottish Nationalists talk about England I hear descriptions of a country that I do not recognise.

Of course a lot of people in Scotland believe all that, but then a lot of people in England believe that Scotland is a postindustrial wasteland populated entirely by sour-faced misers and violent alcoholics and I surely don't need to point out that that is beyond bogus.

Scottish Nationalism is driven instead by the old belief that as Scotland forms a separate society with its own distinct culture - and that it is dwarfed by England and English concerns - it would be better off running its own affairs. Most Scottish voters hate the Tories not because they're right-wing, but because during the 1980s and 1990s they became associated with opposing Scottish interests. Increasingly I suspect that an independent Scotland would be afflicted with a particularly weird case of sinistrisme...

Well, you make a caricature out of my position. I would never claim Scots are less materialistic or more tolerant than the English, that would be stupid. They have fewer immigrants, so they have fewer ethnic conflicts on average, but that's about it. There is precious little radicalism in Scottish politics, but in my view a relatively high degree of consensus regarding basic values. I do believe Scotland is more community minded in the sense that they accept a higher degree of common responsibility for social problems than people in (especially Southern) England.

This difference is especially true for centre-right voters. The Scottish centre-right composed mainly of “Tartan Tories” from SNP and LibDems and relatively few Conservatives seems on average to have views that are closer to Scandinavian mainstream centre-right parties than English Tories, who generally have positions that are quite a bit to the right of whats mainstream here. So in that way, Scotland has more of a “Social Democratic ethos” as Kim Minke, who is head of the Danish Cultural Institute in Edinburgh, phrased it. Not that Scots are all Social Democrats, but that most of centre-right voters accept a relatively large role for the public sector and a high degree of responsibility for the weak, as is the case in Scandinavia. Labour voters - on the other hand - seems to be fairly similar in England and Scotland, but there are just more of them north of the border. The equilibrium in Scottish social attitudes is therefore to the left of England. The left is not more radical, but its larger and the right is more centrist giving Scotland a different center of gravity on the socioeconomic scale.

Of course the fact that Scotland is a cultural nation and retained its own separate institutions after the union is the foundation for Scottish nationalism existing at all. Still, the different perception of the role and size of the public sector and a higher emphasis on social cohesion seems to be driving much of the independence project. The idea (dream) that Scotland can create a society that's more inclusive, green, progressive and community based and with smaller class barriers than the present UK seems rather essential to many separatists (but far from all, of course).

Your claim that the Scottish animosity towards Thatcher was not related to ideology seems strange. Thatcherism was perceived as alien in Scotland. The Unionist Conservative tradition in Scotland was far more about “God, King and country”-patriotism and less about low taxes, union busting and privatization than her brand of Conservatism. Her deindustrialization of the country was also a direct result of her ideological views. While "its Scotlands oil" ignited the nationalist flame, it was clearly the Thatcher governments splashing oil on the bonfire that made it big enough to become a force to be reckoned with. And that wasn't just because of her arrogance, an alien set of values played a part in this.

I do agree that there has been written quite a large amount of BS about the difference between English individualism and Scottish collctivism (a large amount of it written by English academics...), but its both my personal experience and my impression from what I have read on the subject that there is a real difference. Still, Scandinavians (ie Danes and Norwegians) may be biased on this since we simply feel closer to Scots culturally and that may influence our perception of their political culture and values.

[politicus]

Why are Scottish women so supportive of the "No" side?

Women are more risk averse than men, that's a phenomenon you can find in all types of decisionmaking (from the financial markets to surgeon procedures and driving habits).

Independence is risky, the union feels safer - especially since women need the welfare state more than men, on average.

[politicus]

The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

Glad I changed my prediction to 52,1% No.

[politicus]

Can someone explain to me a little bit about the geopolitics and demographic politics of Scotland regarding this referendum.

Is independence more popular in the cities, country, with younger, older, more educated, less educated, north, south, etc?

Independence is most popular with the 35-55 age group, folowed by youngs and most unpopular with 55+.

Men are more likely to support independence than women, but the gender gap has been closing somewhat.

Working class and lower middle class (E, D, C2 in the British statistical classification) are more supportive of independence than more affluent people (A, B, C1), but they also have more undecideds.

The areas in the south along the border and Edinburgh + Shetland/Orkney are anti-independence, the east and north-east are generally pro-independence, while Glasgow is a key battleground area.

See this for the 4 big cities: http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-the-key-referendum-battlegrounds

Gully posted this earlier in the thread:



It has some quirks, like Western Isles being likely anti-independece, but it should give you a general idea.

[politicus]

It appears the true sign of panic has emerged... allegations of vote-rigging, in advance of the vote being rigged, are starting to trickle out. I've been perusing hardcore 'Yes' forums and blogs.... it's a bit scary.

Could you give some links?

[politicus]

The Nats online do seem to get spooked fairly easily, so I wouldn't take any notice. The most amusing case was when they blamed unionists for a power cut in Aberdeenshire on Twitter.

Probably an MI5 operation.

19% of Scots believe the referendum result will be rigged and 26% that the MI5 is working to stop Scottish independence.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/11/conspiracy-theories-rife-in-scottish-referendum-debate_n_5805378.html

[politicus]

BANNOCKBURN II !?

Nah, they chose not to use the 700 year anniversary as the date.

Of course they did (ab)use it.

[politicus]

Maybe it would help if they allowed the third option on this one:

[politicus]

I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Another factor is that this election could get a very high turnout. 97% of adult Scots are registered to vote - including many who had dropped off the electoral roll. So this includes people that pollsters are bad at polling - those who are alienated from politics and never vote, people in temporary housing etc. Since poorer people generally are more inclined to vote yes, they could break for yes.
Also, as a journalist on the Spectator put it: "It seems a fair assumption that people haven’t returned to the electoral roll or registered for the first time to back the status quo."

[politicus]

I've got a question:

One person from Britain is called a Briton.
If you refer to the whole nation you say "the British".

What about Scotland?
One person is a Scot.
But what do you call the whole nation?
The Scottish? The Scots? The Scotch?

Scottish. Scots is the old language. Scotch is alcohol.

You could use the Scots, its just a little old fashioned. Think Mary Queen of Scots, Elizabeth would likely also become Queen of Scots if they become independent.

[politicus]

Secretary of state for Scotland and MP for Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael (LibDem) says that Shetland could stay with the UK and become either a crown dependency a la Isle of Man or an autonomous country within the realm as the Faroes are within the Danish realm if there is a big No in Shetland and a narrow Yes in Scotland as a whole. Their MSP Tavish Scott also says there will have to be negotiations if Scotland votes Yes and Shetland votes No and one of the options in crown dependency status.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/shetland-may-reconsider-place-scotland-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael

I have been sceptical about this, but this gives it a lot more weight. And its a big chunk of the Scottish oil (60% if I remember correctly), thats within Shetland waters.

[politicus]

Scottish people is fine. The Scots is fine. Scotch is a no no.

I have been sceptical about this, but this gives it a lot more weight. And its a big chunk of the Scottish oil (60% if I remember correctly), that's within Shetland waters.

The Orcadians and Zetlanders may vote no to independence. That is not the same as a 'no' to Scotland or a 'yes' to the UK. It's politically cheeky to infer such things.

Agreed, but it seems Carmichael and Scott will try it anyway.

SNP has promised increased control over local affairs to Scotland's island communities, but they have been rather vague about it, so maybe its also a bargaining chip.

Personally I think Shetland and Orkney autonomy within Scotland would be much more desirable.

[politicus]

I would be very surprised if yes doesn't win.

Why?

[politicus]

Perhaps we should have a separate results thread?

I made one.

[politicus]

Something like this better get 100%... independence should be one of those issues where the cynical "your vote like doesn't matter mannn, it's all the same mannn" people don't apply.

"Only" 97% have registered.

[politicus]

To backtore:

1) Edinburgh is expected to be a clear No vote.

2) Many rural areas are strongly pro-independence.

3) While olds are more unionist than youngs there are plenty of places where a majority of senior citizens will vote Yes.

[politicus]

Voted. Had to wait in a line. Never had to do that in the past twelve years.

And how did you vote- I'm guessing yes?

[politicus]

The biggest loser in all this though is Ed Miliband.

Really, dude? This is probably the exact same thing people would say if Yes had won (and the rationale in that case would make only marginally more sense).

The Scottish Yes is actually genuinely good news for Ed Miliband.

[politicus]

if UK decide to leave EU, Scotland could make another referendum : "would you like Scotland becoming an independent state AND member of EU"

I doubt the EU would let Scotland slide in like that. They were very clear that, should Yes have won on Thursday, Scotland would have to had apply like any other nation.

That question only imply that Scotland in this case would apply for membership at once if it became independent. Of course that wouldn't guarantee membership, but the EU would have no reason to block Scotland if the rest of UK left. That would set no dangerous precedent regarding Catalonia or other areas with  secessionist movements and the rUK would obviously not be in a position to block anything.

[politicus]

Nice work, as you can see in thread the Catholic/Yes correlation is not considered surprising around here only "amusing". Expect some jokes about people not wanting to live all that long in a Scotand run by SNP as well.