EP elections 2014

[politicus]

Danish EP poll made by A&B Analyse:

Venstre (ALDE) 27 % 5 seats
Socialdemokraterne (S&D) 17 % 3 seats
Dansk Folkeparti (EFD) 15.6 % 2 seats
Enhedslisten (GUE-NGL) 7.5 % 1 seat
De Radikale (ALDE) 5.9 % 1 seat
Socialistisk Folkeparti (Green) 4.6 % 1 seat
De Konservative (EPP) 4.3 % 0 seats
Liberal Alliance (presumably ECR) 3.8 % 0 seats
Folkebevægelsen mod EU (GUE-NGL) 3.1 % 0 seats

However, there are a few things to notice. The allocation of seats is made on the presumption that the Liberal Alliance's eurosceptic line means that they won't be in an alliance with Venstre and Konservative like last time. However, if they join that alliance, one seat will move from Socialistisk Folkeparti to Venstre. The poll is also made on the presumption that Enhedslisten will actually run; in earlier years they have just campaigned for the People's Movement against EU, but they are seriously considering running this time and it will be decided on their conference in the next couple of days. If they run, they will probably run in an alliance with the People's Movement, but they will most likely end up killing them as they do in this poll. Enhedslisten's participation in an election will certainly raise the turnout among their regular voters, but it is very questionable whether it will be enough to gain two seats and thereby keep the People's Movement alive.

Its very unlikely that the Red-Green Alliance will run on its own, since this is very unpopular among their grassroots, who are extremely fond of "popular movements".

SD is likely to fall further behind, since this will be a good opportunity for their voters to warn them against the consequences of the governments course without actually risiking anything.

[politicus]

Geert Wilders annouMarine Le Pen and the changes she has made in the Front National, especially by getting rid of antisemitism.

Of course, the Front National hasn't really got rid of antisemitism, they just toned it down and voiced much more on islamophobia instead.

Yes, in our very pro-Zionist DPP Front National is still seen as fascists. I also doubt UKIP will have anything to do with FN. Generally there will have to be two right wing populist groups. The gap between moderates (or parties self identifying as  moderates) and parties with a more radical tradition/history is simply too large.

[politicus]

25 members wont be a problem for the moderates given UKIPs success, and I think they can make the 7 country requirement as well, but the "radicals" will likely not be able to meet those requirements.

A lot will depend on Eastern Europe. Fx what about the Hungarian right wing? What will be their priorities?

I think the backbone of the moderates will be UKIP + the Scandinavians (DPP, True Finns, Sweden Democrats) + the Austrians.

Then they need two more.

FN will have to work primarily with Eastern European parties to build their coalition.

[politicus]

The problem for radicals, is that they lack credible member parties in countries like Spain and Poland and Italy. Futhermore some of their stronger parties, are no more in good form (Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, Bulgaria). On the other hand they may take seats in Sweden and Greece. But if they manage to get their maximal result on the basis of the present parties they would get maximally 30 seats.

I think its certain that Golden Dawn will get in.

Why Sweden? Sweden Democrats would be with the moderates and there is no credible party to their right.

[politicus]

I have always thought that Sweden democrats are easily closer to FPÖ, JOBBIK and PVV than the moderate group.  


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Alliance_for_Freedom

Well, basically its speculation. I just assume there will be some kind of realignment with a broader version of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movement_for_a_Europe_of_Liberties_and_Democracy including UKIP and Sweden Democrats. It will be in the interest of both parties to distance themselves from the extreme right. The question is if FPÖ will be in this group, they actually consider themselves more moderate than DPP. So its a strange game of exclusion.

Lega Nord is the biggest group in MELD right no, forgot about them.

But Jobbik, FN  and Golden Dawn should be certain as the core of a radical right group.

[politicus]

The impression I get is that UKIP want to be the most xenophobic nationalist party they can be, without toppling over into totalitarian and neo-nazi or fascist territory. This is not a mindset that will make it easy to build alliances with groups from other European countries.

I see them as a fairly mainstream right wing populist party with the usual "longing" for respectability. If they want to challenge the Tories going far right is not going to work.

[politicus]

If they take True Finns and DPP, good luck tryna call UKIP out as extreme.

It might create the opposite problem for the DPP as a partnership with the Tories would jeopardize their attempt to be seen as right wing Social Democrats. Their lone present representative Morten Messerschmidt is a right winger on economics (and climate change.. and prety much everything else..), but with 3-4 seat after the elections their group would include SD-types. So they would run the same risk as last time when Anna Rosbach left and later joined The Environmental Party - Focus.
Tories = respectability, but also the kind of policies their working class voters and pensioners don't like.