SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[politicus]

I think it's time for countries that use PR with thresholds (see also Germany with the FDP debacle) to start thinking of a way to correct the ensuing misrepresentation. They could for example introduce IRV among list (so that if a party comes below the threshold their vote is redistributed among 2nd preference getters) or electoral coalitions (where the vote is redistributed among other members of the coalition).

Its a lot easier just to lower the threshold. 4-5% is simply too high, if you use 2% as we do in Denmark the problem is virtually non-existent.

I could certainly understand why other countries wouldn't want to end up with the level of parliamentary fragmentation you have in Denmark (or at least that you had in the 70s-80s).

I agree that 5% is too high, but IMO 3 or 4% is about right.

In a European context: Since the far left is more likely to create splinter parties than the far right all a 4% threshold does compared to a 2% is to make it harder for the left to obtain power than the right, which isn't very democratic.

Once in a while a small centrist party is squeezed out, but that hardly makes it easier to form a stable government.

In countries with lots of ethnic or sectarian fragmentation a higher threshold is more sensible.

[politicus]

I think the Left is getting away with this election after all.

Bastards...

[politicus]

Jimmie boy has a gambling problem:

http://www.thelocal.se/20140912/sweden-democrats-in-new-secret-film-scandal

"On Friday afternoon, Sveriges Radio (SR) revealed that (SD leader) Jimmie Åkesson had spent upwards of 500,000 kronor ($70,000) this year alone on online betting.

A gambling expert told the channel that such a habit was "out of control". The sum is more than the politician would have earned all year, after tax, reported SR.
 
Åkesson said that the large sums he spent were simply the winnings from previous bets, adding that he gambled "for fun" with his partner."

[politicus]

Generally the way to go for Scandinavian right wing populists has been to weed out outright racists and try to look respectable. Our DPP has been very consistent in banning local members who are caught saying or doing racist stuff. SD are trying hard to become more respectable, but are still in a more early stage of this respectability process compared to PP in Norway, and DPP.

The actual racist base is rather small in Nordic countries, so rightwing populists need to breach out to other groups where respectability is important and outright "primitive" racism frowned upon (even if they still hold bigoted views).

Massive online gambling is also not something you want to be associated with if you are trying to look respectable.

So, yes I think it will hurt them, the question is how much.

[politicus]

My FINAL prediction:

30.3% S
  10.0% MP
  6.5% V

46.8% Red-Greens-Left

21.3% M
  6.6% FP
  6.0% C
  4.7% KD

38.6% Alliance

10.0% SD
  4.2% FI
  0.4% Others

Turnout: 86.1% (+1.5%)

[politicus]

At which hour polls close and at which hour shall we have a good idea of the result?

They close at 20 central European time and Swedish exit polls are normally excellent, so right away (which is actually boring).

[politicus]

Never heard of the multiple paper ballots before, it would be very controversial to use that system here where the secrecy of the ballot is sacrosanct.

[politicus]

Danes being trolls, as usual.

While I dont think calling for electoral observers in a fellow Nordic country is appropriate its not trolling, rather a refelection of a deep cultural gap on this matter.

If some voters openly show their ballots, there can be a pressure for others to disclose their ballots, so on a principal level its problematic. I very much doubt its an actual problem in a country like Sweden, but never the less it really should be abolished.