Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014)

[politicus]

Ah, the old discussion of why Stockholm is right-wing (it wasn't last night, actually...). No offense, but I feel like DL is the one who asks that question every single time, with the same people replying and the same counter-arguments from DL.

(It is an interesting topic, but not sure why Stockholm gets all this attention - centre-right cities aren't that unusual)

I cant remember discussing this with DL before.

[politicus]

We'll slowly see a transformation of the European far-right into an EU Republican Party and the centre neo-liberal right into the EU Democrats. The Americanisation of our society will be complete.

I disagree, I think the far right (which are better called nationalist populists) will adopt more leftist economic policies since that's the niche that's left open by the decline of Social Democrats and their supporters are relatively poor. In some countries they will probably also cooperate with Social Democrats to block the neoliberal agenda.
Europeans will continue to expect more from the state than Americans, so a Republican style party will not succeed..

Also at some point we will see a new left wing generation - assuming that their own generation is the last and the end of history is a common fallacy of youngs.

[politicus]

We'll slowly see a transformation of the European far-right into an EU Republican Party and the centre neo-liberal right into the EU Democrats. The Americanisation of our society will be complete.

I disagree, I think the far right (which are better called nationalist populists) will adopt more leftist economic policies since that's the niche that's left open by the decline of Social Democrats and their supporters are relatively poor. In some countries they will probably also cooperate with Social Democrats to block the neoliberal agenda.
Europeans will continue to expect more from the state than Americans, so a Republican style party will not succeed..

Also at some point we will see a new left wing generation - assuming that their own generation is the last and the end of history is a common fallacy of youngs.

Michel Onfray (french philosopher) said the only thing stopping the Communist Party of France from getting the 25%-35% ''it deserves'' is its inability to distance itself with what Onfray calls 'La Gauche Culturelle'. While I think he's exaggerating that score, he's right in saying the cultural act of being a ''leftist'' is unfashionable and totally out of touch with working class people. They do not give a flying  about Maoist China or Fidel Castro's beard.

But seriously have you seen the youth of today? Any radicals are alienated or tend to be far right intellectuals of the Soral type (make some complicated argument in order to obscure the fact that you don't like gays because it's against the status quo). The internet is just one big popularity contest where you go on your own forum and spout the slogans some fat dude with a shotgun over the Atlantic wants to hear.

We are screwed.

My (last) point was that "the youth of today" matters less than young people think. Its just one generation. Others will follow and each generation reacts against its predecessors.

[politicus]

This thread is getting way too sage for its own good.

What do you expect? Its a Sweden thread without any Swedes to give us some proper analysis (most of them are probably drowning their sorrows, Gustaf might actually be celebrating). Idle speculation, sagery and rhetorical grand standing is bound to fill the void.

[politicus]

Looks like Stefan Loefven told Left party that he does not want to include Left Party in new government.  Not sure what Loefven is up to.  Is he hoping to rope in all if C-FP into his government?  Did not C already rule this out? It this does not work out are we not looking at at a budget talks failure in a few months?

Having a government that functions.

S+MP was alwas the most likely centre-left option. Including Left would make it harder to make a budget deal across the aisle.

[politicus]

Any possibility of the Social Democrats forming a government with the Left, Greens, and some of the smaller (and somewhat more moderate) Alliance parties-ie KD or C?

The problem here is that the three small centre-right parties are to the right of the Moderates, so its not a logical combo (and certainly impossible if the Left should be included in the government).

Hmm. I thought the KD was fairly economically centrist like the CU in the Netherlands but I guess I was wrong. Would the Liberals and the Centrists be considered to the right of M though?

Yes, on economics and labour market issues they would be. M moderated under Reinfeldt and C went to the right. Liberals were always pretty right wing on the socioeconomic scale.

[politicus]

having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

Come to canada where we have a dictatorial Conservative majority government that only 39% of the electorate voted for...Margaret Thatcher never won more than 42% of the vote in the UK and it never stopped her from ramming her policies down everyone's throats.

Yes, but there's a big difference between a PR and FPTP system. Thatcher always had a majority of MPs, and Harper had a decent plurality of MPs. The government Löfvén is proposing would have less support in parliament than the main political alternative. I have a hard time seeing Thatcher holding on if Labour had more MPs than her, and Harper holding on if the Liberals had been bigger.

Not that it will be impossible. We should remember that Sweden had a government representing only 11% of the voters, only 35 years ago, and that was before the simplified budget rules that make it easier for minority governments to hold on.

I've always wondered how 'minority governments' run. Do bills and budgets need less than 50% of the vote or do they rely on opposition support on a case-by-case basis?

You still need a majority. Either they have a supporting party outside the government which they can rely on in crucial votes or they negotiate everything with the opposition on a case by case basis.

[politicus]

If I'm not mistaken the Social Democrats have almost never won a clear majority on their own and the norm has been for them to be passively supported by the Venstre and/or Miljo party without those parties having cabinet ministers - have there EVER been Venstre party cabinet ministers? In many cases the three or four "bourgeois parties" have had more seats than the S alone - so this is nothing new. It doesn't really matter if Venstre is part of the government with cabinet ministers, if they vote to make Lofven PM when the Riksdag meets then he has the confidence and he governs with their silent support, right?

Yes, basically. Vänstrepartiet has never been in government, they are the old communist party, so it was a no go.

From 2008-2010 SAP, MP and Vänstrepartiet where in an alliance Red-Greens, so if the left had won the 2010 election they would have been part of the government, but this time around there were no explicit alliance.

[politicus]

While the Swedish Liberal 1978-79 government was a form of interim government after a coalition breakdown, you can also have extreme minority governments after a regular election if the result is unclear or even chaotic. After the Danish landslide election in 1973, where 5 hitherto unrepresented parties entered parliament, Liberal leader Poul Hartling formed a government on 12,3% of the votes, simply because the Liberals where the established party that had lost the least seats. It lasted almost 14 months. The Liberals then won the 1975 election and doubled their seats, but Hartling had to resign because a centre-right government would have to rely on the populist and anarcho-libertarian Progress Party and the Social Democrats returned to power.

[politicus]

This thread is getting way too sage for its own good.

What do you expect? Its a Sweden thread without any Swedes to give us some proper analysis (most of them are probably drowning their sorrows, Gustaf might actually be celebrating). Idle speculation, sagery and rhetorical grand standing is bound to fill the void.

Why would I be celebrating?

The "leftists" managing to throw away what looked like a certain victory, likely paving the way for a swift return of the centre-right in a couple of years. For an Alliance supporter this result is as good as it could realistically get.

Anyway, that post was obviously not 100% serious.

So according to val.se, the official results have just finished to be counted a couple minutes ago.

Turnout is at 85.80% (+1.23), the highest figure since 1994. The only good thing to come out of this election, I guess.

And 1,21% higher than the Scottish referendum - a testimony to the failure of Scotland's Choice that they couldn't get a higher turnout for their nation's choice of a lifetime than a regular Scandinavian parliamentary election.

The British and Americans could learn a thing or two from the Swedes. Hold an election, get a result that's 99,9% accurate in 4 hours and then finish the "fine counting" in 4,5 days. That's the way to do it.

[politicus]

This thread is getting way too sage for its own good.

What do you expect? Its a Sweden thread without any Swedes to give us some proper analysis (most of them are probably drowning their sorrows, Gustaf might actually be celebrating). Idle speculation, sagery and rhetorical grand standing is bound to fill the void.

Why would I be celebrating?

The "leftists" managing to throw away what looked like a certain victory, likely paving the way for a swift return of the centre-right in a couple of years. For an Alliance supporter this result is as good as it could realistically get.

Anyway, that post was obviously not 100% serious.

So according to val.se, the official results have just finished to be counted a couple minutes ago.

Turnout is at 85.80% (+1.23), the highest figure since 1994. The only good thing to come out of this election, I guess.

And 1,21% higher than the Scottish referendum - a testimony to the failure of Scotland's Choice that they couldn't get a higher turnout for their nation's choice of a lifetime than a regular Scandinavian parliamentary election.

The British and Americans could learn a thing or two from the Swedes. Hold an election, get a result that's 99,9% accurate in 4 hours and then finish the "fine counting" in 4,5 days. That's the way to do it.

As much as I like to be smug about every superior quality in all things Scandinavian, and I do like that very much...

No one should have Swedish style ballots, no one are harmed by the fact it took a night to count the Scottish vote, but th Swedish semi-open ballot do harm people by bringing a social pressure to be open about your vote and thereby votes for the right party or parties.

Wasn't talking about their ballots at all.

[politicus]

Based on what?

An expert survey made by some guys at the University of Gothenburg.

In that case its really strange that it deviates so much from the common perception, there are some genuine oddities in the chart (as SCheese pointed out)..

[politicus]

This has probably been asked before, though in other wording, but why is there this political divide between the parts, that had been danish in medieval and early modern times (Skane and the western coast) and the rest?

Their pre-1645/58 history is at least irrelevant (and it would be strange if it was relevant).
Since the other former Danish/Norwegian areas have quite different voting patterns: Blekinge is an SAP stronghold and the island of Gotland and Jemtland/Herjedalen (in the north) don't fit the Scania or West Coast pattern.

Why Scania, Halland and Bohuslen votes somewhat similar I dunno, but its all densely populated by Swedish standards.

[politicus]

Press conference today, Löfven announces that he's forming a government with MP but not much in the way of new information. Beyond his statement of basically selling out anything that could be called left and rule like a right-winger

Ah, a Social Democratic/progressive centrist-government following bourgeois policies, with a True Leftist party (which they depend on for support) being ignored and isolated. Sounds familiar.
Swedish politics just seems to become progressively more Danish.

Going the HTS route will be costly, though, it allows SD to go on the attack.

How do you mean? The obvious answer is that Skåne and Halland are pretty rich areas, just like Stockholm, and thus very predictably vote more right-wing.

How about Bohuslen? Is it above average as well?

[politicus]

What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

Well, to be fair to SAP (which is not something I'm not very fond of being) the centre-left is 16 seats short of a majority, so it's not as if they have very much of a choice at this point.  

That's the pragmatic and careful approach - and Löfven is a very pragmatic and careful man, but there is the alternative of promoting your own policy and letting the opposition shoot it down, giving them the responsibility for a political stalemare and then taking things to the voters.
Also, in this scenario SD would be forced to either back the governments socioeconomic policies or be identified as economic right wingers, which would harm them.

So its not as if SAP had no choice, they just chose the way all SocDems in Europe seem to choose these days.

I may be biased by having the Danish experience in my mind, where our SocDems clearly messed up by going down the path of accommodation and "bourgeoisation" (probably not a word in English.. ), but I think SAP made the wrong call on this one. Sometimes its better to fight than to be pragmatic - still I know Swedish voters love pragmatism, so maybe it will work in Sweden.

[politicus]

There's no point in winning elections if you don't try to form a government afterwards. Particularly when failing to do so could result in a political crisis that you'd be blamed for.

Of course they should form a government, but that wouldn't have precluded sticking with their own platform. Sweden has negative parliamentarism, so the opposition would have had to actively block a centre-left government, which they wouldn't have done (since they couldn't form a government themselves). If the old Alliance parties actually had done so, they would have been seen as obstructionist and blamed for the crisis.

[politicus]

Hilariously, FI nearly won a precinct in Södermalm (17.7% in Högalid 8 Bergsund N: Social Democrats just pipped them with 18.3%).

They did win this precinct in Malmö.

83%+ for the left/centre-left is impressive. Is that the most leftist precinct in Sweden?

[politicus]

Hilariously, FI nearly won a precinct in Södermalm (17.7% in Högalid 8 Bergsund N: Social Democrats just pipped them with 18.3%).

They did win this precinct in Malmö.

83%+ for the left/centre-left is impressive. Is that the most leftist precinct in Sweden?

No, that would probably be this one, in another part of Malmö.

That's an SAP voting immigrant area, what is the other one with 50,3% for V + FI?  Students or some alternative lifestyle types?

[politicus]

That's an SAP voting immigrant area, what is the other one with 50,3% for V + FI?  Students or some alternative lifestyle types?

Students and hipsters.

Somehow I have a hard time wrapping my head around the idea of Malmö hipsters .

[politicus]

Also, the Greens are giving up their opposition to armed forces and pensions. The SAP is dropping their opposition to labour migration. I'm pretty happy so far.

The Greens are opposed to pensions?

It was asked earlier and answered in reply 276.

[politicus]

Also, the Greens are giving up their opposition to armed forces and pensions. The SAP is dropping their opposition to labour migration. I'm pretty happy so far.

The Greens are opposed to pensions?

It was asked earlier and answered in reply 277.

Sorry, didn't realise we'd started a new page.

What are the main ambitions/policies of the new government?

To stay in power, i.e. not have any ambitions or policies.

Well, in theory they want to improve education and employment I think. They're making high school compulsory for some unfathomable reason. At least I hope they're not sticking to the insane idea they proposed a year back of cutting off high school dropouts from all welfare, leaving them to starve to death on the sidewalk.

When it comes to employment it's less clear but hopefully we'll get a an industry chancellor. I say hopefully because it's a badass name.

Unfathomable? I think it's unfathomable to just give up on students and treat it as a fact that some students will always be tired and disinterested in schoolwork and can't be helped by competent teachers. Unemployment amongst those without high school degrees is several times higher than the rest of the population so on the labour market today having a high school degree is a de facto requirement to get a job. 15 year olds are also not mature enough to make such a major decision in regards to their future, god knows I have several friends stuck in unemployment today who say their biggest regret is having been so stupid by dropping out of school.

What about vocational training and apprenticeships? High school (even the semi-practical programs) is not for everyone.

[politicus]

What about vocational training and apprenticeships? High school (even the semi-practical programs) is not for everyone.

Well the previous government removed the requirement that all high school programs should make students qualified to apply for college studies and instituted some 2-year vocational programs, however all of those have fallen far below expectations with fewer and fewer people applying to them for every year since they were created. It's been tried but it failed.

Well, I don't know how those programs were designed, but if I look at the problems we have with 65-70% high school attendance I can only imagine the nightmare it must be to teach in a 100% attendance high school. If it should qualify to university studies I would say around 35-40% ought to be the maximum. The academization of education is one of biggest mistakes of our time.

[politicus]

That is alreading being discussed in the Sweden thread on the IG board, no need to bump the election thread.