Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[politicus]

Can someone tell me if the midlothian was expected to vote no?

Toss-up

[politicus]

I'm getting the impression there's an urban -rural divide here.  If "Yes" wins in Glasgow by a huge margin but fails miserably everywhere else, I guess that means the "Yes" camp didn't do a good job getting its message out outside of big cities.

Am I wrong to assume this?  I'm asking because I don't know much about Scotland.

Also ideology. The Yes campaign in Glasgow has been more about socialism than nationalism. Its very different from the Tartan Tories in the NE.

Well yes but taking that into account it seems that "Yes" underperformed in rural areas while it did better than expected in Dundee (which is a somewhat big city if I'm not mistaken).

Dundee is 4th larges city, but nationalist heartland.

[politicus]

Angus:
80,302 total
Turnout - 85.7%
Yes - 35,044
No - 45,192

Another council that had expected to go for yes

Thats really bad for Yes.

[politicus]

Moray may be the only place left Yes wins, if they get even that.

Still, Glasgow is of course interesting.

Maps going to look funny.

[politicus]

Glasgow: 53-47

Turnout should have been bigger for the miracle to happen.

[politicus]

So the 48-52 + about 4% shy unionists and scared in the last moment voters, thats Quebec 1995 light.

[politicus]

SCOTTISH BORDERS

"No" wins by 55,553 to 27,906.

That's 67% for "No" and 33% for "Yes".

Total votes 83,459. Turnout 87.4%.

[politicus]

Six to go: Fife (no), Edinburgh (big no), Moray (yes), Highland (no), Argyll & Bute (no), Aberdeenshire (yes?).

[politicus]

No: 54.28
Yes: 45.72

Edinburgh and Fife still out, so this should narrow some more.

Those two will widen it.

[politicus]

No: 54.28
Yes: 45.72

Edinburgh and Fife still out, so this should narrow some more.

Those two will widen it.

Edinburgh is Safe yes.....

What gave you that idea?

[politicus]

I think Edinburgh will break 60% No.

[politicus]

No: 54.28
Yes: 45.72

Edinburgh and Fife still out, so this should narrow some more.

Those two will widen it.

Edinburgh is Safe yes.....

What gave you that idea?

A while back, someone (not me) said a big margin in Edinburgh could change things:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

BBC predicts a final margin of No 55-45.

That was an observation by Anton Kreitzer on the kind of magic needed if Yes should be able to win, not something that was likely to happen.

[politicus]

"The status quo has not got any kind of endorsement or mandate tonight," Nicola Sturgeon

[politicus]

Edinburgh voted 39-61.

Told ya it would be 60%+

[politicus]

Moray even lower Yes vote (42,4%) than Angus (43,7%). Its interesting that those two are that low.

Only 4 Yes areas out of 32. (Parts of) Greater Glasgow + Dundee.

Orkney best No, Dundee best Yes.

[politicus]

Argyll and  Blute are not especially logistic friendly either.

It is, however, significantly smaller.

[politicus]

For what its worth the unofficial leaks from those counting says its 53-47 No. Just in case anybody wants to go to bed...

[politicus]

84,59% is a very disappointing turnout given that 97% of eligible voters registered and the high level of commitment to vote expressed in the polls, some Yes supporters likely got scared in the end and stayed home.

[politicus]

For what its worth the unofficial leaks from those counting says its 53-47 No. Just in case anybody wants to go to bed...

Spot on. It turned out to be 53,08% No and 46,92 Yes. Glad I didn't wait up!

[politicus]

This was far from a "neat" and well structured result. Lots of quirks and oddities. I wonder if we without an exit poll will ever really know in depth exactly what happened?

A politologist from University of Strathclyde said that level of unemployment was actually the best correlation of Yes votes, so poor, run down areas vote Yes and well to do No is the overall pattern. The second - unsurprisingly - being if one identified with being British. Also important was large "immigrant" population from the rest of Britain and abroad vs.native Scots. But generally the pattern seems to be more complex than in an average election or referendum.

Regarding SNP strategy they seemed to mostly have been successful with promising a better future to the disfortunate (what Al calls utopia, I would say genuine Social Democracy..), and not with their centre-right voters among the Tartan Tories in rural and small town Scotland, who voted with their vallets.



 

[politicus]

I assume all the jokes about a PM called Salmond whose second-in-command is called Sturgeon have already been made long before I became aware of this fact, but regarldess...

ROFLMAO!!!

What is life like in the Sea N Pee? Is it a dogfish eat dogfish world? Is everyone united for a common porpoise? Or do they all split off in their own special groupers? Well, one tragic story indicates it's not so perfect down there.

"There was once a brilliant Sturgeon on the staff of the Scottish community health fishility. She was in fact one of it's flounders. Wiser than Salmond, a fin fellow who would never shrimp from his responsibilities, she was successful and happy and always whistled a happy tuna.
One day one of her patients, a mere whipper snapper, started trouting around telling everyone the Sturgeon's treatments had made him more eel than he had been and conked her with a malpractice suit.
Well, the Sturgeon was in a real pickeral. The board chased her off the staff and demanded her oyster. But fortunately the case smelt to high heaven so the judge denied the plaintiff's clam.
The board tried to hire the Sturgeon back but by then she had hit the bottlenose pretty hard. But what's really shad about the story is that the Sturgeon ended up on squid-row..."

[politicus]

This sums it up pretty well:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/06/snp-nicola-sturgeon-alex-salmond-scottish-independence-referendum

[politicus]

It's a shame that we don't have lower level results, because I'm now fairly sure that ethnoreligious background was a factor.

Evidently. Excluding Dundee it seems that support for independence was actually at it's highest in the areas that were Labour's last stand in 2011. Which in turn also correlated to 'thethingyouretalkingabout.'

So SNP projecting socially and culturally inclusive nationalism backfired and anti-Catholic bigotry resurfaced? But why now? SNP's has had broadly the same concept since Salmond got control of the party. Was it just because it got serious now?

[politicus]

Which means we also know more or less exactly who the twenty to thirty percent of Labour supporters (as highlighted by basically every poll) who voted Yes are. It makes a degree of logical sense; less attachment to the British state and - in a more functional sense - to the rest of the UK.

_{(Btw, have you ever considered a variant of 'this thing of ours' a generic jokey semi-euphemism for it?)}

It's a shame that we don't have lower level results, because I'm now fairly sure that ethnoreligious background was a factor.

Evidently. Excluding Dundee it seems that support for independence was actually at it's highest in the areas that were Labour's last stand in 2011. Which in turn also correlated to 'thethingyouretalkingabout.'

So SNP projecting socially and culturally inclusive nationalism backfired and anti-Catholic bigotry resurfaced? But why now? SNP's has had broadly the same concept since Salmond got control of the party. Was it just because it got serious now?

The areas that voted strongly in favour of independence were more than likely areas with high Catholic populations. What's important to note that these areas in 2011 also (and this was most clearly seen within Glasgow itself at that time) remained Labour 'boltholes' in an otherwise sea of yellow that year. For that reason, with a bit of intuition, it seemed to me that in west central Scotland those who voted Labour in 2011 may have been more inclined to vote Yes in 2014. What is also striking, excluding E.Duns and E.Ren, the borders, and the islands which have their own special way of thinking is that the parts of the country where the SNP was strong didn't back Yes, or indeed backed No much more heavily.

These areas of the country are richer, have faster growing populations, low Catholic populations and high areas of 'No Religion' in the census amongst the young and high levels of Presbyterianism amongst the old. One would have expected the opposite result across the country. It would be helpful, though it is impossible to see, what the results by council would have been with the over 65's stripped back.

What is all the more curious is that Catholics in 1979 were less inclined to back the Assembly on the basis that there was a not too illegitimate fear that Scotland would become another Ulster. At that time there was a feeling that unionism (not that Catholics ever backed political Unionism in the Scottish sense) was a stalwart against state Presbyterianism.

I don't think there was anything remotely anti-Catholic about the vote. Given that it is likely that Yes led amongst almost all age groups until those in their 60's if anything the map doesn't tell us as much as it ought to. There's a bit of a 'grey mist' that makes meaningful interpretation difficult.

Well, I though a resurface of anti-Catholicism at this point sounded weird, but then Al made the reference to the Orange Order march.

This reverse pattern with Labour/Irish/Catholic areas voting Yes and SNP/"Old Scottish" Presbyterian/Agnostic areas voting No is really strange, even if it correlates with a socio-economic geographical and/or demograhic divide. Could SNP have avoided it with a different type of campaign?

The point about most under 60 voters being Yes is of course important.

What do you think of the turnout at 82,1% of all voters/84,6 of registered?  Worse than you expected or fine? Had Yes won with a 90%+ turnout IYO?

[politicus]

538 on why the polls where off. We have covered all of the factors at one point or another, but if someone wants the arguments presented in one place its a decent article:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-pollsters-think-they-underestimated-no-in-scotland/