US-Israeli Relations After the Election

[politicus]

Frankly, I do not see at this point any compelling American interest in the region. If I were Obama I would simply ignore Israel. Of course, ignoring it would also imply abstaining on UNSC resolutions, etc. Let the Europeans take the lead, if they wish. US should just make it clear it is not interested.

BTW, this is not only about Israel, but also about, say, Egypt. US ability of making an impact there is negligible at this point. And, like Israel, it has no oil. So,...

Most EU countries are increasingly pro-Palestinian. If the US backs down Israel is on its own.

...

Generally China, Japan and Western Europe have far greater interests in Middle Eastern oil than the US and the EU has an obvious interest in stability in its neighbouring areas.

All of them would be forced to create a more active Middle Eastern policy if the US withdrew. The Chinese response would be particularly interesting.

[politicus]

Frankly, I do not see at this point any compelling American interest in the region. If I were Obama I would simply ignore Israel. Of course, ignoring it would also imply abstaining on UNSC resolutions, etc. Let the Europeans take the lead, if they wish. US should just make it clear it is not interested.

BTW, this is not only about Israel, but also about, say, Egypt. US ability of making an impact there is negligible at this point. And, like Israel, it has no oil. So,...

Most EU countries are increasingly pro-Palestinian. If the US backs down Israel is on its own.

...

Generally China, Japan and Western Europe have far greater interests in Middle Eastern oil than the US and the EU has an obvious interest in stability in its neighbouring areas.

All of them would be forced to create a more active Middle Eastern policy if the US withdrew. The Chinese response would be particularly interesting.

But Israel has nothing to do with Mideast oil - even for China.

The main international interest in Israel is, frankly, religious. If it were not for Jerusalem, nobody would care. Honestly, I think nobody should care.

Of ocurse, they are separate issues, which I why  I made the dotted line.

You made three posts about US Middle Eastern policy, this was in response to the third.

[politicus]

Israel would likely find itself backed up against a corner by hostile powers looking to legislate it out of existence without the US' support.

South Africa spent over a decade in the same place, so don't expect overnight results.

Jews are a majority in Israel, they have a stronger position since the democracy argument is less powerful. Israel also does not have racism enshrined in their constitution despite all the apartheid hyperbole. If the   existence of Israel was really threatened I would still expect most Western governments to back it.

[politicus]

Israel would likely find itself backed up against a corner by hostile powers looking to legislate it out of existence without the US' support.

South Africa spent over a decade in the same place, so don't expect overnight results.

Jews are a majority in Israel, they have a stronger position since the democracy argument is less powerful. Israel also does not have racism enshrined in their constitution despite all the apartheid hyperbole. If the   existence of Israel was really threatened I would still expect most Western governments to back it.

The problem is not Israel. The problem is Israel + territories. If there is no two-state solution, there has to be a one-state solution. And one-state solution means Jewish majority that is, at best, tenuous.

Still a far cry from South Africa where Whites never made up more than 22% in the first place.

[politicus]

Israel would likely find itself backed up against a corner by hostile powers looking to legislate it out of existence without the US' support.

South Africa spent over a decade in the same place, so don't expect overnight results.

The world hates Israel a hell of a lot more than they did South Africa and their demands are a lot less reasonable.

Clearly no to the first part, yes to the last part.

[politicus]

Israel would likely find itself backed up against a corner by hostile powers looking to legislate it out of existence without the US' support.

South Africa spent over a decade in the same place, so don't expect overnight results.

Jews are a majority in Israel, they have a stronger position since the democracy argument is less powerful. Israel also does not have racism enshrined in their constitution despite all the apartheid hyperbole. If the   existence of Israel was really threatened I would still expect most Western governments to back it.

The problem is not Israel. The problem is Israel + territories. If there is no two-state solution, there has to be a one-state solution. And one-state solution means Jewish majority that is, at best, tenuous.

Yeah, Jews are not a majority in the area they control.  Not unless you accept the legitimacy of second-class Bantustans carved out of that area from places the Jews are happy to leave to be Palestinian ghettos.

As for the idea that there is zero racism in the Jewish constitution, I submit that their Law of Return is an inherently racist piece of legislation.

The Law of Return applies to all Jews regardless of race.

Why should "area they control" be the relevant criteria? Britons were a minority in the British Empire in 1930 and it was still a democracy. The occupied territories are a sort of colonies, not the country itself.

[politicus]

Israel would likely find itself backed up against a corner by hostile powers looking to legislate it out of existence without the US' support.

South Africa spent over a decade in the same place, so don't expect overnight results.

Jews are a majority in Israel, they have a stronger position since the democracy argument is less powerful. Israel also does not have racism enshrined in their constitution despite all the apartheid hyperbole. If the   existence of Israel was really threatened I would still expect most Western governments to back it.

The problem is not Israel. The problem is Israel + territories. If there is no two-state solution, there has to be a one-state solution. And one-state solution means Jewish majority that is, at best, tenuous.

Yeah, Jews are not a majority in the area they control.  Not unless you accept the legitimacy of second-class Bantustans carved out of that area from places the Jews are happy to leave to be Palestinian ghettos.

As for the idea that there is zero racism in the Jewish constitution, I submit that their Law of Return is an inherently racist piece of legislation.

Laws allowing automatic citizenship to certain groups of immigrants are hardly uncommon...

Also, an Israel that didn't give a guarantee of a refuge to any Jew would have been an Israel without a point, given the timing. Calling it "racist" is absurd.

It would have been less offensive if they hadn't done everything they could to push out the non-Jewish people who were already living there at the time, Ray.

Please don't compare it to the settling of the United States in the 1700s. Forced population transfers aren't acceptable in the modern era. If Israel had done what it did to the Palestinians a century or two earlier, it would have been a fait accompli akin to the tragic fates of many indigenous peoples. But they didn't - they waited too long.

Turkey ethnically cleansed Hatay/Sanjak of Alexandrette for Christian Arabs and Armenians in 1938 and it was accepted. Germans were driven from Eastern Europe after WW2 etc. There are plenty of generally accepted ethnic cleansings in the modern era. What was special in the Palestinian case was the lack of willingness from the neighbouring Arab countries to integrate the refugees and the determination of the Palestinians to assert their claim for generations (those two things obviously being connected).

[politicus]

Other points:
- I'm trying to think of a European liberal democracy with 20% distinctive minority population (not immigrants) which has connection with a neighboring belligerent national group. I can't, again why comparisons are good only to a certain degree.

Both Estonia and Latvia have those. And while Russians are (mostly) of immigrant descend they do constitute a distinct minority.

[politicus]

Israel did win, but they can not get away with an ethnic cleansing of the West Bank and without it they risk minority status in the long run + they risk getting the South African treatment from the world community.

The idea that India and China should have an interest in supporting Israel over Arab countries is absurd. Both countries need oil.

[politicus]

Israel did win, but they can not get away with an ethnic cleansing of the West Bank and without it they risk minority status in the long run + they risk getting the South African treatment from the world community.

The idea that India and China should have an interest in supporting Israel over Arab countries is absurd. Both countries need oil.

The Arab world is fading in terms of its importance to global oil markets. And if you have been paying attention, the Arab world isn't that interested in a Palestinian state right now. At least not any of the Oil producers. Hamas is aligned with Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood, and they have zero faith in the PA to hold them off. It is safer for the Saudis and Gulf States to have Israel in military control of Gaza and the West Bank than to risk Hamas getting it.

Not fading fast enough for that to matter. China currently imports more oil from the Gulf than any other country.

Not being pro-Palestinian does not translate into supporting a pariah state like Israel. Israel is unfortunately too unpopular by this point for non-Western powers to support them - especially Muslim countries.

[politicus]

Dan, I am a live long Zionist and I tell you that Israel is unfortunately in serious trouble and risk global isolation. Apart from the US it has no real allies of any strength and no chance of getting any. It is simply not a valuable ally and supporting Israel costs too much. You do not have to be a "liberal" or have an ounch of sympathy for the Palestinians to see that. Denying reality is no use.

[politicus]

As if Israel's conventional military supremacy means sh!t in the face of suicide bombings/terrorist attacks.

Those things do not threaten the existence of a state.